Joint analysis of the energy spectrum of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory and the Telescope Array

The measurement of the energy spectrum of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) is of crucial importance to clarify their origin and acceleration mechanisms. The Pierre Auger Observatory in Argentina and the Telescope Array (TA) in the US have reported their measurements of UHECR energy spectra observed in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively. The region of the sky accessible to both Observatories ([−15,+24] degrees in declination) can be used to cross-calibrate the two spectra. The Auger-TA energy spectrum working group was organized in 2012 and has been working to understand the uncertainties in energy scale in both experiments, their systematic differences, and differences in the shape of the spectra. In previous works, we reported that there was an overall agreement of the energy spectra measured by the two observatories below 10 EeV while at higher energies, a remaining significant difference was observed in the common declination band. We revisit this issue to understand its origin by examining the systematic uncertainties, statistical effects, and other possibilities. We will also discuss the differences in the spectra in different declination bands and a new feature in the spectrum recently reported by the Auger Collaboration

UHECR arrival directions in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors and nearby galaxies

The distribution of ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray arrival directions appears to be nearly isotropic except for a dipole moment of order $6 \times (E/10~\mathrm{EeV})$ per cent. Nonetheless, at the highest energies, as the number of possible candidate sources within the propagation horizon and the magnetic deflections both shrink, smaller-scale anisotropies might be expected to emerge. On the other hand, the flux suppression reduces the statistics available for searching for such anisotropies. In this work, we consider two different lists of candidate sources: a sample of nearby starburst galaxies and the 2MRS catalog tracing stellar mass within 250 Mpc. We combine surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and the Telescope Array until 2019, and use them to test models in which UHECRs comprise an isotropic background and a foreground originating from the candidate sources and randomly deflected by magnetic fields. The free parameters of these models are the energy threshold, the signal fraction, and the search angular scale. We find a correlation between the arrival directions of $11.8\%_{-3.1\%}^{+5.0\%}$ of cosmic rays detected with $E \ge 38~\mathrm{EeV}$ by Auger or with $E \gtrsim 49~\mathrm{EeV}$ by TA and the position of nearby starburst galaxies on a ${15.5^\circ}_{-3.2^\circ}^{+5.3^\circ}$ angular scale, with a 4.2σ post-trial significance, as well as a weaker correlation with the overall galaxy distribution

Joint analysis of the energy spectrum of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays measured at the Pierre Auger Observatory and the Telescope Array

The measurement of the energy spectrum of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) is of crucial importance to clarify their origin and acceleration mechanisms. The Pierre Auger Observatory in Argentina and the Telescope Array (TA) in the US have reported their measurements of UHECR energy spectra observed in the southern and northern hemisphere, respectively. The region of the sky accessible to both Observatories ([-15, +24] degrees in declination) can be used to cross-calibrate the two spectra. The Auger-TA energy spectrum working group was organized in 2012 and has been working to understand the uncertainties in energy scale in both experiments, their systematic differences, and differences in the shape of the spectra. In previous works, we reported that there was an overall agreement of the energy spectra measured by the two observatories below 10 EeV while at higher energies, a remaining significant difference was observed in the common declination band. We revisit this issue to understand its origin by examining the systematic uncertainties, statistical effects, and other possibilities. We will also discuss the differences in the spectra in different declination bands and a new feature in the spectrum recently reported by the Auger Collaboration

The UHECR dipole and quadrupole in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors

The sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays are still unknown, but assuming standard physics, they are expected to lie within a few hundred megaparsecs from us. Indeed, over cosmological distances cosmic rays lose energy to interactions with background photons, at a rate depending on their mass number and energy and properties of photonuclear interactions and photon backgrounds. The universe is not homogeneous at such scales, hence the distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays is expected to reflect the inhomogeneities in the distribution of galaxies; the shorter the energy loss lengths, the stronger the expected anisotropies. Galactic and intergalactic magnetic fields can blur and distort the picture, but the magnitudes of the largest-scale anisotropies, namely the dipole and quadrupole moments, are the most robust to their effects. Measuring them with no bias regardless of any higher-order multipoles is not possible except with full-sky coverage. In this work, we achieve this in three energy ranges (approximately 8--16 EeV, 16--32 EeV, and 32--∞ EeV) by combining surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and at the Telescope Array (TA) until 2019, before the completion of the upgrades of the arrays with new scintillator detectors. We find that the full-sky coverage achieved by combining Auger and TA data reduces the uncertainties on the north-south components of the dipole and quadrupole in half compared to Auger-only results

The UHECR dipole and quadrupole in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors

The sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays are still unknown, but assuming standard physics, they are expected to lie within a few hundred megaparsecs from us. Indeed, over cosmological distances cosmic rays lose energy to interactions with background photons, at a rate depending on their mass number and energy and properties of photonuclear interactions and photon backgrounds. The universe is not homogeneous at such scales, hence the distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays is expected to reflect the inhomogeneities in the distribution of galaxies; the shorter the energy loss lengths, the stronger the expected anisotropies. Galactic and intergalactic magnetic fields can blur and distort the picture, but the magnitudes of the largest-scale anisotropies, namely the dipole and quadrupole moments, are the most robust to their effects. Measuring them with no bias regardless of any higher-order multipoles is not possible except with full-sky coverage. In this work, we achieve this in three energy ranges (approximately 8–16 EeV, 16–32 EeV, and 32–∞ EeV) by combining surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and at the Telescope Array (TA) until 2019, before the completion of the upgrades of the arrays with new scintillator detectors. We find that the full-sky coverage achieved by combining Auger and TA data reduces the uncertainties on the north-south components of the dipole and quadrupole in half compared to Auger-only results

UHECR arrival directions in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors and nearby galaxies

The distribution of ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray arrival directions appears to be nearly isotropic except for a dipole moment of order $6 \times (E/10~\mathrm{EeV})$ per cent. Nonetheless, at the highest energies, as the number of possible candidate sources within the propagation horizon and the magnetic deflections both shrink, smaller-scale anisotropies might be expected to emerge. On the other hand, the flux suppression reduces the statistics available for searching for such anisotropies. In this work, we consider two different lists of candidate sources: a sample of nearby starburst galaxies and the 2MRS catalog tracing stellar mass within 250 Mpc. We combine surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and the Telescope Array until 2019, and use them to test models in which UHECRs comprise an isotropic background and a foreground originating from the candidate sources and randomly deflected by magnetic fields. The free parameters of these models are the energy threshold, the signal fraction, and the search angular scale. We find a correlation between the arrival directions of $11.8\%_{-3.1\%}^{+5.0\%}$ of cosmic rays detected with $E \ge 38~\mathrm{EeV}$ by Auger or with $E \gtrsim 49~\mathrm{EeV}$ by TA and the position of nearby starburst galaxies on a ${15.5^\circ}_{-3.2^\circ}^{+5.3^\circ}$ angular scale, with a 4.2σ post-trial significance, as well as a weaker correlation with the overall galaxy distribution

UHECR arrival directions in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors and nearby galaxies

The distribution of ultra-high-energy cosmic-ray arrival directions appears to be nearly isotropic except for a dipole moment of order 6× (E/10 EeV) per cent. Nonetheless, at the highest energies, as the number of possible candidate sources within the propagation horizon and the magnetic deflections both shrink, smaller-scale anisotropies might be expected to emerge. On the other hand, the flux suppression reduces the statistics available for searching for such anisotropies. In this work, we consider two different lists of candidate sources: a sample of nearby starburst galaxies and the 2MRS catalog tracing stellar mass within 250 Mpc. We combine surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and the Telescope Array until 2019, and use them to test models in which UHECRs comprise an isotropic background and a foreground originating from the candidate sources and randomly deflected by magnetic fields. The free parameters of these models are the energy threshold, the signal fraction, and the search angular scale. We find a correlation between the arrival directions of 11.8%5.0%-3.1% of cosmic rays detected with E ≥ 38 EeV by Auger or with ≥ 49 EeV by TA and the position of nearby starburst galaxies on a 15.5°+5.3°-3.2° angular scale, with a 4.2f post-trial significance, as well as a weaker correlation with the overall galaxy distribution

The UHECR dipole and quadrupole in the latest data from the original Auger and TA surface detectors

The sources of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays are still unknown, but assuming standard physics, they are expected to lie within a few hundred megaparsecs from us. Indeed, over cosmological distances cosmic rays lose energy to interactions with background photons, at a rate depending on their mass number and energy and properties of photonuclear interactions and photon backgrounds. The universe is not homogeneous at such scales, hence the distribution of the arrival directions of cosmic rays is expected to reflect the inhomogeneities in the distribution of galaxies; the shorter the energy loss lengths, the stronger the expected anisotropies. Galactic and intergalactic magnetic fields can blur and distort the picture, but the magnitudes of the largest-scale anisotropies, namely the dipole and quadrupole moments, are the most robust to their effects. Measuring them with no bias regardless of any higher-order multipoles is not possible except with full-sky coverage. In this work, we achieve this in three energy ranges (approximately 8--16 EeV, 16--32 EeV, and 32--∞ EeV) by combining surface-detector data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory until 2020 and at the Telescope Array (TA) until 2019, before the completion of the upgrades of the arrays with new scintillator detectors. We find that the full-sky coverage achieved by combining Auger and TA data reduces the uncertainties on the north-south components of the dipole and quadrupole in half compared to Auger-only results

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)