Joint development in the South China Sea: exploring the prospects of oil and gas cooperation between rivals

The article of record as published can be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.12.014This article evaluates whether the South China Sea's littoral states can cooperatively manage the region's contested oil and natural gas resources. By examining historical intergovernmental joint development agreements (JDAs), it argues that the prospects for significant hydrocarbon cooperation are slim under current political conditions, as rival states rarely establish such accords. Moreover, creating JDAs is insufficient to prompt actual co-development of shared oil or gas deposits or improvements in states' broader relations. Nonetheless, hydrocarbon agreements do have one important positive impact. They prevent resource-related militarized confrontations, thereby reducing the risk of territorial dispute escalation. This incentive, alone, could prompt the South China Sea's claimant states to negotiate JDAs and third party states to encourage these efforts

The Impact Of Traumatic Experiences On Women\u27s Mental Health: The Moderating Effect Of Violent Media Consumption

Introduction: Prior research informs us that negative mental health outcomes are associated with childhood trauma (Chapman et al., 2004; Widom, 1999) and with exposure to violence in the media (Hopwood & Schutte, 2017). Given the prevalence of violence against women (VAW) both in the media and in society in general, it is important to understand how VAW in the media may uniquely impact the mental health of women who have previous experiences of childhood trauma. Objective: Drawing from cultivation theory and the diathesis stress model of mental health, this study examined the moderating role of exposure to VAW in the media, on the relationship between traumatic experiences and mental health outcomes (anxiety, depression, PTSD, and life satisfaction) among women. It was hypothesized that exposure to VAW in the media would amplify the relationship between women’s traumatic experiences in childhood and negative mental health outcomes. Method: 208 young women (ages 18-25), recruited through social media groups, listservs, and snowball sampling, were included in this study. Participants completed questionnaires measuring experiences of trauma, exposure to VAW in the media, and mental health outcomes (anxiety, depression, PTSD, and life satisfaction). Hypotheses were tested using path analysis. Results: The findings demonstrated that exposure to VAW in the media has a significant negative moderation effect on the relationship between childhood trauma and PTSD symptoms, as well as on the relationship between childhood trauma and depression symptoms. No moderation effect was found for the outcome variables of anxiety symptoms and life satisfaction. Conclusion: Implications for future research and practice are discussed

Mental Health Response for Law Enforcement

Law enforcement has been responding to mental health crisis calls for as long as it has been a profession. Police officers are asked to respond and solve difficult problems. using a variety of tools. This paper will identify what tools law enforcement is currently using to deal with these difficult calls and also the different techniques police officers should be using as our response continues to change. With ever-changing expectations from the public, along with rapidly evolving case law, this paper will show why law enforcements’ response to mental health crisis calls needs to change and what law enforcement needs to do to get there

Understanding the Mechanisms of International Influence in an Era of Great Power Competition

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogab011Amid growing speculation that the United States and China are destined for a more conflictual relationship, and that Russia is actively seeking to expand its global power, security scholars and professionals are increasingly interested in understanding the influence of great and rising powers throughout the world. However, in focusing primarily on power resources and international activities, existing scholarship on this subject has not adequately addressed how a state obtains and sustains international influence. To overcome this knowledge deficit, this article presents a framework for analyzing international influence that includes not only power resources and influence activities, but also a comprehensive set of power mechanisms that states mobilize to induce change in another state’s behavior. The article applies the framework to US security sector activities in Africa. The analysis, based primarily on interviews with US defense attachés and security cooperation officers, shows how different types of activities mobilize different sets of power mechanisms. It reveals that activities that mobilize expertise, attraction, and recognition mechanisms have the greatest potential for developing and maintaining influence. The article concludes that, to obtain and sustain international influence, states must be more attentive to the mechanisms of power, rather than merely deploying their power resources.US Africa Comman

Leveraging Naval Diplomacy to Reinforce Economic Programs and Compete with China

NPS NRP Executive SummaryAs competition between the U.S. and China intensifies, the U.S. Navy must plan and implement its overseas operations and diplomatic activities to advance U.S. influence. The main purpose of this study is to assess how the USN can leverage its operations and activities to reinforce U.S. economic programs and enhance U.S. influence. Building on an innovative influence framework developed by two of the investigators, it will systematically assess how USN activities and operations such as joint exercises, port calls, humanitarian assistance and disaster response, and training programs, generate influence in three important U.S. partner nations with significant Chinese investment and/or security presence: Chile, Senegal, and the United Arab Emirates. The project will also identify specific ways that USN activities can reinforce USG economic programs and build effective partnerships, specifying the most productive activity groupings, effective sequencing arrangements, and potential obstacles to interagency coordination. The project will produce a final report, as well as briefings to the sponsor and other interested audiences in the Navy. The report will consist of three country case studies and a comparative analysis of their findings. The precise organization and format of the deliverables will be designed to suit the needs of the topic sponsor. Interim reports will be provided to keep the sponsor apprised of our progress and to solicit feedback during the course of study.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Geomorphology’s role in the study of weathering of cultural stone

Great monumental places—Petra, Giza, Angkor, Stonehenge, Tikal, Macchu Picchu, Rapa Nui, to name a few—are links to our cultural past. They evoke a sense of wonderment for their aesthetic fascination if not for their seeming permanence over both cultural and physical landscapes. However, as with natural landforms, human constructs are subject to weathering and erosion. Indeed, many of our cultural resources suffer from serious deterioration, some natural, some enhanced by human impact. Groups from the United Nations to local civic and tourism assemblies are deeply interested in maintaining and preserving such cultural resources, from simple rock art to great temples. Geomorphologists trained in interacting systems, process and response to thresholds, rates of change over time, and spatial variation of weathering processes and effects are able to offer insight into how deterioration occurs and what can be done to ameliorate the impact.Review of recent literature and case studies presented here demonstrate methodological and theoretical advances that have resulted from the study of cultural stone weathering. Because the stone was carved at a known date to a ‘‘baseline’’ or zero-datum level, some of the simplest methods (e.g., assessing surface weathering features or measuring surface recession in the field) provide useful data on weathering rates and processes. Such data are difficult or impossible to obtain in ‘‘natural’’ settings. Cultural stone weathering studies demonstrate the importance of biotic and saline weathering agents and the significance of weathering factors such as exposure (microclimate) and human impact. More sophisticated methods confirm these observations, but also reveal discrepancies between field and laboratory studies. This brings up two important caveats for conservators and geomorphologists. For the conservator, are laboratory and natural setting studies really analogous and useful for assessing stone damage? For the geomorphologist, does cultural stone data have any real relevance to the natural environment? These are questions for future research and debate. In any event, cultural stone weathering studies have been productive for both geomorphologists and conservators. Continued collaboration and communication between the geomorphic, historic preservation, archaeological, and engineering research communities are encouraged

Using the surface profiles of modern ice masses to inform palaeo-glacier reconstructions

Morphometric study of modern ice masses is useful because many reconstructions of glaciers traditionally draw on their shape for guidance Here we analyse data derived from the surface profiles of 200 modern ice masses-valley glaciers icefields ice caps and ice sheets with length scales from 10(0) to 10(3) km-from different parts of the world Four profile attributes are investigated relief span and two parameters C* and C that result from using Nye s (1952) theoretical parabola as a profile descriptor C* and C respectively measure each profile s aspect ratio and steepness and are found to decrease in size and variability with span This dependence quantifies the competing influences of unconstrained spreading behaviour of ice flow and bed topography on the profile shape of ice masses which becomes more parabolic as span Increases (with C* and C tending to low values of 2 5-3 3 m(1/2)) The same data reveal coherent minimum bounds in C* and C for modern ice masses that we develop into two new methods of palaeo glacier reconstruction In the first method glacial limits are known from moraines and the bounds are used to constrain the lowest palaeo ice surface consistent with modern profiles We give an example of applying this method over a three-dimensional glacial landscape in Kamchatka In the second method we test the plausibility of existing reconstructions by comparing their C* and C against the modern minimum bounds Of the 86 published palaeo ice masses that we put to this test 88% are found to be plausible The search for other morphometric constraints will help us formalise glacier reconstructions and reduce their uncertainty and subjectiveness (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserve

Spatial Analysis of Cirques from Three Regions of Iceland: Implications for Cirque Formation and Palaeoclimate

This study is a quantitative analysis of cirques in three regions of Iceland: Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords and Vestfirðir. Using Google Earth and the National Land Survey of Iceland Map Viewer, we identified 347 new cirques on Tröllaskagi and the East Fjords region, and combined these data with 100 cirques previously identified on Vestfirðir. We used ArcGIS to measure length, width, aspect, latitude and distance to coastline of each cirque. Palaeo‐equilibrium‐line altitudes (palaeo‐ELAs) of palaeo‐cirque glaciers were calculated using the altitude‐ratio method, cirque‐floor method and minimum‐point method. The mean palaeo‐ELA values in Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords and Vestfirðir are 788, 643 and 408 m a.s.l, respectively. Interpolation maps of palaeo‐ELAs demonstrate a positive relationship between palaeo‐ELA and distance to coastline. A positive relationship between palaeo‐ELA and latitude is observed on Vestfirðir, a negative relationship is observed on Tröllaskagi and no statistically significant relationship is present on the East Fjords. The modal orientation of cirques on Tröllaskagi and Vestfirðir is northeast, while orientation of cirques in the East Fjords is north. Palaeo‐wind reconstructions for the LGM show that modal aspect is aligned with the prevailing north‐northeast wind directions, although aspect measurements demonstrate wide dispersion. Cirque length is similar on Tröllaskagi and the East Fjords, but cirques are approximately 200 m shorter in Vestfirðir. Cirque widths are similar in all three regions. Comparisons with a global data set show that cirques in Iceland are smaller and more circular than cirques in other regions of the world. Similar to glaciers in Norway and Kamchatka, our results demonstrate that access to a moisture source is a key parameter in determining palaeo‐ELAs in Iceland. Temperatures interpreted from palaeo‐ELA depressions suggest that these cirques may have been glaciated as recently as the Little Ice Age

Demand, supply, and restraint: Determinants of domestic water conflict and cooperation

This article focuses on one of the most likely empirical manifestations of the "environment-conflict" claim by examining how demand for and supply of water may lead to domestic water conflict. It also studies what factors may reduce the risk of conflict and, hence, induce cooperation. To this end, the article advances several theory-based arguments about the determinants of water conflict and cooperation, and then analyzes time-series cross-section data for 35 Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Sahel countries between 1997 and 2009. The empirical results show that demand-side drivers, such as population pressure, agricultural productivity, and economic development are likely to have a stronger impact on water conflict risk than supply-side factors, represented by climate variability. The analysis also reveals that violent water conflicts are extremely rare, and that factors conducive to restraint, such as stable political conditions, may stimulate cooperation. Overall, these results suggest that the joint analysis of demand, supply, and restraint improves our ability to account for domestic water-related conflict and cooperation