Workshop on "Agent-Based Computational Modelling. An Instrument for Analysing Complex Adaptive Systems in Demography, Economics and Environment" at the Vienna Institute of Demography, December 4-6, 2003

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On climate, conflict and cumulation: Suggestions for integrative cumulation of knowledge in the research on climate change and violent conflict

Possible links between climate change and intra-state violent conflict have received major scholarly attention in recent years. But with few exceptions there is still a low level of consensus in this research field. The article argues that one reason for this disagreement is a lack of integrative cumulation of knowledge. Such an integrative cumulation is prevented by three obstacles, which have until now hardly been discussed in the literature. The first is the use of inadequate terms, discussed here with a focus on the labels ‘Malthusian’/‘cornucopian’ and the operationalization of key variables. Secondly, the weaknesses of large-N studies in research on climate change and violent conflict are not sufficiently reflected. These include a lack of data on crucial concepts as well as deficits of widely used datasets. Thirdly, literature that deals with a possible link between adverse environmental change and peace (termed here ‘environmental peace perspective’) has neither been systematized nor adequately considered in the debate so far. The article provides examples of these shortcomings and makes suggestions of how to address each of them. It also develops an integrative theoretical framework for the environmental peace perspective which facilitates its consideration in research on climate change and violent conflict

Actors and networks in resource conflict resolution under climate change in rural Kenya

The change from consensual decision-making arrangements into centralized hierarchical chieftaincy schemes through colonization disrupted many rural conflict resolution mechanisms in Africa. In addition, climate change impacts on land use have introduced additional socio-ecological factors that complicate rural conflict dynamics. Despite the current urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation, resolution efficiency of these fused rural institutions has hardly been documented. In this context, we analyse the Loitoktok network for implemented resource conflict resolution structures and identify potential actors to guide conflict-sensitive adaptation. This is based on social network data and processes that are collected using the saturation sampling technique to analyse mechanisms of brokerage. We find that there are three different forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements that integrate traditional institutions and private investors in the community. To effectively implement conflict-sensitive adaptation, we recommend the extension officers, the council of elders, local chiefs and private investors as potential conduits of knowledge in rural areas. In conclusion, efficiency of these fused conflict resolution institutions is aided by the presence of holistic resource management policies and diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks

Coastal Cities Affected by Sea Level Rise and Forrester’s ‘Urban Dynamics’

Klimaschutz und KlimaanpassungSystem dynamics (SD) pioneered by Jay W. Forrester is a powerful modelling approach for 'what-if' simulations, with a prominent track record of applications to climate and environmental problems. With a goal to describe the pathways of urban adaptation to climate-related coastal hazards, we develop two modifications of the seminal Forrester's 'Urban Dynamics' model. In their current stage of development, these modifications are tailored to simulate the 'business-as-usual' (BaU) scenario when no adaptation actions are taken by the coastal city. In our extensions of Forrester model, sea level rise and related coastal hazards lead to a gradual reduction of city area and severe damages to urban infrastructure under BaU scenario. We explore with SD simulations both close-to-linear and remarkably nonlinear regimes of responses to coastal hazards under BaU. In the original simulations by Forrester that do not take into account climate change impacts, the urban system ultimately reaches an equilibrium after the transitional period of its dynamics. Our simulations with the extended model tell us a different narrative of urban decline under BaU when damages from coastal hazards are taken into account. We also develop simple reduced models of the dynamics of urban wealth that are in qualitative agreement with the results of both our modifications of the Forrester model. With these reduced models, in addition to BaU, we explore the coastal urban adaptation scenarios

Conflict and cooperation in the water-security nexus: A global comparative analysis of river basins under climate change

Adequate fresh water availability is an important factor for human security in many parts of the world. In transboundary river basins, decreased water supply due to local environmental change and global climate change and increased water demand due to growing populations and continued economic development can aggravate water scarcity. Contrary to the claim that water scarcity may result in an increased risk of armed conflict, there is no simple relationship between freshwater availability and violent conflict. Other crucial factors need to be taken into consideration that also directly influence resource availability and personal human well‐being. In this review, we assess the scientific literature on conflict and cooperation in transboundary river systems. Most international river basins are already jointly managed by the riparians, but successful management in times of climate change necessitates the inclusion of more factors besides mere allocation schemes. On the basis of a substantial body of literature on the management of transboundary watersheds, an analytical framework of the water‐security nexus is developed that integrates the physical and socioeconomic pathways connecting water availability with conflict or cooperation. This framework is subsequently applied to two transboundary river basins—the Nile River and the Syr Darya/Amu Darya—as they represent two world regions that could become future water hot spots. An improved understanding of the developments leading to water conflicts and their interaction can help to successfully reduce the risk of water conflicts in these regions and to move toward increased cooperation among the riparians of transboundary river systems