The Retail FX Trader: Random Trading and the Negative Sum Game

With the internet boom of early 2000 making access to trading the Foreign Exchange (FX) market far simpler for members of the general public, the growth of 'retail' FX trading continues, with daily transaction volumes as high as $200 billion. Potential new entrants to the retail FX trading world may come from the recent UK pension deregulations, further increasing the volumes. The attraction of FX trading is that it offers high returns and whilst it has been understood that it is high-risk in nature, the rewards are seen as being commensurately high for the 'skilled and knowledgeable' trader who has an edge over other market participants. This paper analyses a number of independent sources of data and previous research, to examine the profitability of the Retail FX trader and compares the results with that of a simulated random trading models. This paper finds evidence to suggest that whilst approximately 20% of traders can expect to end up with a profitable account, around 40% might expect their account to be subject to a margin call. This paper finds a strong correlation between the overall profitability of traders and impact of the cost of the bid-ask spread, whilst finding little if any evidence that retail FX traders, when viewed as a group, are achieving results better than that from random trading

On the Nature of Memory and Rejuvenation in Glassy Systems

The memory effect in a single crystal spin glass ($\mathrm{Cu}_{0.92}\mathrm{Mn}_{0.08}$) has been measured using $1 \mathrm{Hz}$ ac susceptibility techniques over a reduced temperature range of $0.4 - 0.7 \, T_g$ and a model of the memory effect has been developed. A double-waiting-time protocol is carried out where the spin glass is first allowed to age at a temperature below $T_g$, followed by a second aging at a lower temperature after it has fully rejuvenated. The model is based on calculating typical coincidences between the growth of correlated regions at the two temperatures. It accounts for the absolute magnitude of the memory effect as a function of both waiting times and temperatures. The data can be explained by the memory loss being a function of the relative change in the correlated volume at the first waiting temperature because of the growth in the correlations at the second waiting temperature.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

Pressure studies of impurity levels in AlxGa1-xAs

doi: 10.1088/0268-1242/4/4/033The authors present a study of the deep and shallow donor levels under hydrostatic pressure. The shallow levels follow the conduction bands, while the deep levels are strongly sublinear with pressure. The temperature dependence of the intensities and energies is used to obtain an energy level diagram of the deep levels at high pressures.This work was supported by theU S Army under grant number DAAL03-86K-0083, the US Department of Energy under grant number DE-AC02 84ER45048, and Amoco Corporation. M Chandrasekhar is a n A P Sloan Foundation Fellow

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as\u27that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

The Role of National Debts in the Determination of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long-run nominal yen-dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the USA. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long-run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar

Greenland Ice Core Greenland Ice Core Signal Characteristics: An Expanded View of Climate Change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

Record Drilling Depth Struck in Greenland

On July 1, 1993, after 5 years of drilling, the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2) penetrated several meters of silty ice and reached bedrock at a depth of 3053.4 m. It then penetrated 1.5 m into the bedrock, producing the deepest ice core ever recovered (Figure 1). In July 1992, a nearby European ice coring effort, the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP), reached an ice depth of 3028.8 m, providing more than 250,000 years of record. Comparisons between these ice core records have already demonstrated the remarkable reproducibility of the upper ∼90% of the records unparalleled view of climatic and environmental change

Exchange Rate Pass-Through into German Import Prices – A Disaggregated Perspective

This study analyzes the exchange rate pass-through into German import prices based on disaggregated data taken on a monthly basis between 1995 and 2012. Our main contribution is twofold: firstly, we employ various time-series techniques to analyze data for different product categories, and also cointegration techniques to carefully distinguish between short-run and long-run pass-through coefficients. Secondly, in a panel data approach we estimate time-varying pass-through coefficients and explain their development with regard to various macroeconomic factors. Our results show that long-run pass-through is only partly observable and incomplete, while short-run pass-through shows a more unique character, although heterogeneity across product groups does exist. We are also able to identify several macroeconomic factors which determine changes in the degree of pass-through, which is especially relevant for policymakers