A Computation in a Cellular Automaton Collider Rule 110

A cellular automaton collider is a finite state machine build of rings of one-dimensional cellular automata. We show how a computation can be performed on the collider by exploiting interactions between gliders (particles, localisations). The constructions proposed are based on universality of elementary cellular automaton rule 110, cyclic tag systems, supercolliders, and computing on rings.Comment: 39 pages, 32 figures, 3 table

A Unifying Framework for Evaluating the Predictive Power of Genetic Variants Based on the Level of Heritability Explained

An increasing number of genetic variants have been identified for many complex diseases. However, it is controversial whether risk prediction based on genomic profiles will be useful clinically. Appropriate statistical measures to evaluate the performance of genetic risk prediction models are required. Previous studies have mainly focused on the use of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, or AUC, to judge the predictive value of genetic tests. However, AUC has its limitations and should be complemented by other measures. In this study, we develop a novel unifying statistical framework that connects a large variety of predictive indices together. We showed that, given the overall disease probability and the level of variance in total liability (or heritability) explained by the genetic variants, we can estimate analytically a large variety of prediction metrics, for example the AUC, the mean risk difference between cases and non-cases, the net reclassification improvement (ability to reclassify people into high- and low-risk categories), the proportion of cases explained by a specific percentile of population at the highest risk, the variance of predicted risks, and the risk at any percentile. We also demonstrate how to construct graphs to visualize the performance of risk models, such as the ROC curve, the density of risks, and the predictiveness curve (disease risk plotted against risk percentile). The results from simulations match very well with our theoretical estimates. Finally we apply the methodology to nine complex diseases, evaluating the predictive power of genetic tests based on known susceptibility variants for each trait

An exploration of parents’ preferences for foot care in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a possible role for the discrete choice experiment

Background: An increased awareness of patients’ and parents’ care preferences regarding foot care is desirable from a clinical perspective as such information may be utilised to optimise care delivery. The aim of this study was to examine parents’ preferences for, and valuations of foot care and foot-related outcomes in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA).<p></p> Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) incorporating willingness-to-pay (WTP) questions was conducted by surveying 42 parents of children with JIA who were enrolled in a randomised-controlled trial of multidisciplinary foot care at a single UK paediatric rheumatology outpatients department. Attributes explored were: levels of pain; mobility; ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL); waiting time; referral route; and footwear. The DCE was administered at trial baseline. DCE data were analysed using a multinomial-logit-regression model to estimate preferences and relative importance of attributes of foot care. A stated-preference WTP question was presented to estimate parents’ monetary valuation of health and service improvements.<p></p> Results: Every attribute in the DCE was statistically significant (p < 0.01) except that of cost (p = 0.118), suggesting that all attributes, except cost, have an impact on parents’ preferences for foot care for their child. The magnitudes of the coefficients indicate that the strength of preference for each attribute was (in descending order): improved ability to perform ADL, reductions in foot pain, improved mobility, improved ability to wear desired footwear, multidisciplinary foot care route, and reduced waiting time. Parents’ estimated mean annual WTP for a multidisciplinary foot care service was £1,119.05.<p></p> Conclusions: In terms of foot care service provision for children with JIA, parents appear to prefer improvements in health outcomes over non-health outcomes and service process attributes. Cost was relatively less important than other attributes suggesting that it does not appear to impact on parents’ preferences.<p></p&gt

An optimised patient information sheet did not significantly increase recruitment or retention in a falls prevention study: an embedded randomised recruitment trial

\ua9 2017 The Author(s).Background: Randomised controlled trials are generally regarded as the \u27gold standard\u27 experimental design to determine the effectiveness of an intervention. Unfortunately, many trials either fail to recruit sufficient numbers of participants, or recruitment takes longer than anticipated. The current embedded trial evaluates the effectiveness of optimised patient information sheets on recruitment of participants in a falls prevention trial. Methods: A three-arm, embedded randomised methodology trial was conducted within the National Institute for Health Research-funded REducing Falls with ORthoses and a Multifaceted podiatry intervention (REFORM) cohort randomised controlled trial. Routine National Health Service podiatry patients over the age of 65 were randomised to receive either the control patient information sheet (PIS) for the host trial or one of two optimised versions, a bespoke user-tested PIS or a template-developed PIS. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients in each group who went on to be randomised to the host trial. Results: Six thousand and nine hundred patients were randomised 1:1:1 into the embedded trial. A total of 193 (2.8%) went on to be randomised into the main REFORM trial (control n = 62, template-developed n = 68; bespoke user-tested n = 63). Information sheet allocation did not improve recruitment to the trial (odds ratios for the three pairwise comparisons: template vs control 1.10 (95% CI 0.77-1.56, p = 0.60); user-tested vs control 1.01 (95% CI 0.71-1.45, p = 0.94); and user-tested vs template 0.92 (95% CI 0.65-1.31, p = 0.65)). Conclusions: This embedded methodology trial has demonstrated limited evidence as to the benefit of using optimised information materials on recruitment and retention rates in the REFORM study. Trial registration: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number registry, ISRCTN68240461. Registered on 01 July 2011

Long-Lasting Consequences of Neonatal Maternal Separation on Social Behaviors in Ovariectomized Female Mice

Maternal separation (MS) stress is known to induce long-lasting alterations in emotional and anxiety-related behaviors, but effects on social behaviors are not well defined. The present study examined MS effects on female social behaviors in the social investigation (SIT) and social preference (SPT) tests, in addition to non-social behaviors in the open-field (OFT) and light-dark transition (LDT) tests in C57BL/6J mice. All females were tested as ovariectomized to eliminate confounding effects of endogenous estrogen during behavioral testing. Daily MS (3 hr) from postnatal day 1 to 14 did not affect anxiety levels in LDT, but were elevated in OFT with modified behavioral responses to the novel environment. Furthermore, MS altered social investigative behaviors and preference patterns toward unfamiliar stimulus mice in SIT and short- and long-term SPT paradigms. In SIT, MS reduced social investigation duration and increased number of stretched approaches towards both female and male unfamiliar stimulus mice, suggesting increased social anxiety levels in MS females. Similarly, MS heightened levels of social anxiety during short-term SPT but no MS effect on social preference was found. On the other hand, MS females displayed a distinctive preference for female stimuli, unlike control females, when tested for long-term SPT over a prolonged period of 5 days. Evaluation of FosB expression in the paraventricular nucleus, medial and central amygdala following stimulus exposure demonstrated greater number of FosB immunopositive cells in all three brain regions in MS females compared to control females. These results suggest that MS females might differ in neuroendocrine responses toward unfamiliar female and male opponents, which may be associated with modifications in social behaviors found in the present study. Taken together, this study provides new evidence that early life stress modifies female social behaviors by highlighting alterations in behavioral responses to situations involving social as well as non-social novelty

The systematic guideline review: method, rationale, and test on chronic heart failure

Background: Evidence-based guidelines have the potential to improve healthcare. However, their de-novo-development requires substantial resources-especially for complex conditions, and adaptation may be biased by contextually influenced recommendations in source guidelines. In this paper we describe a new approach to guideline development-the systematic guideline review method (SGR), and its application in the development of an evidence-based guideline for family physicians on chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: A systematic search for guidelines was carried out. Evidence-based guidelines on CHF management in adults in ambulatory care published in English or German between the years 2000 and 2004 were included. Guidelines on acute or right heart failure were excluded. Eligibility was assessed by two reviewers, methodological quality of selected guidelines was appraised using the AGREE instrument, and a framework of relevant clinical questions for diagnostics and treatment was derived. Data were extracted into evidence tables, systematically compared by means of a consistency analysis and synthesized in a preliminary draft. Most relevant primary sources were re-assessed to verify the cited evidence. Evidence and recommendations were summarized in a draft guideline. Results: Of 16 included guidelines five were of good quality. A total of 35 recommendations were systematically compared: 25/35 were consistent, 9/35 inconsistent, and 1/35 un-rateable (derived from a single guideline). Of the 25 consistencies, 14 were based on consensus, seven on evidence and four differed in grading. Major inconsistencies were found in 3/9 of the inconsistent recommendations. We re-evaluated the evidence for 17 recommendations (evidence-based, differing evidence levels and minor inconsistencies) - the majority was congruent. Incongruity was found where the stated evidence could not be verified in the cited primary sources, or where the evaluation in the source guidelines focused on treatment benefits and underestimated the risks. The draft guideline was completed in 8.5 man-months. The main limitation to this study was the lack of a second reviewer. Conclusion: The systematic guideline review including framework development, consistency analysis and validation is an effective, valid, and resource saving-approach to the development of evidence-based guidelines