The influence of interpolation and station network density on the distributions and trends of climate variables in gridded daily data

We study the influence of station network density on the distributions and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate Model evaluation. Area averages can only be determined with reasonable accuracy from a sufficiently large number of stations within a grid-box. However, the station network on which E-OBS is based comprises only 2,316 stations, spread unevenly across approximately 18,000 0.22A degrees grid-boxes. Consequently, grid-box data in E-OBS are derived through interpolation of stations up to 500 km distant, with the distance of stations that contribute significantly to any grid-box value increasing in areas with lower station density. Since more dispersed stations have less shared variance, the resultant interpolated values are likely to be over-smoothed, and extreme daily values even more so. We perform an experiment over five E-OBS grid boxes for precipitation and temperature that have a sufficiently dense local station network to enable a reasonable estimate of the area-average. We then create a series of randomly selected station sub-networks ranging in size from four to all stations within the E-OBS interpolation search radii. For each sub-network realisation, we estimate the grid-box average applying the same interpolation methodology as used for E-OBS, and then evaluate the effect of network density on the distribution of daily values, as well as trends in extremes indices. The results show that when fewer stations have been used for the interpolation, both precipitation and temperature are over-smoothed, leading to a strong tendency for interpolated daily values to be reduced relative to the "true" area-average. The smoothing is greatest for higher percentiles, and therefore has a disproportionate effect on extremes and any derived extremes indices. For many regions of the E-OBS dataset, the station density is sufficiently low to expect this smoothing effect to be significant and this should be borne in mind by any users of the E-OBS dataset

Local Government Law in Virginia, 1870-1970

Virginia has never faced more pressing local problems. Both the population and the economy have grown so rapidly in the last several decades that the traditional system of local government has been strained and perhaps even rendered obsolete. This system was established when Virginia was a predominantly rural and agricultural state. But after approximately three centuries without radical change, it has suddenly been threatened by urbanization. Simply put, it was not designed to operate in a predominantly urban and industrial setting and has proven unequal to the task of coping with the problems which attend urbanization

Introduction: Reflections on the provision, organisation and management of social care in Ireland

This special edition of Administration is intended as a contribution to ongoing debates at a time when the policy and regulatory framework for social care in Ireland is undergoing significant reform. This reform is necessary in order to both rectify the deficiencies and gaps resulting from past failures as well as enhance capacity to address current and future demands. Future challenges will arise from economic, cultural and socio-demographic changes, but no doubt some will be due to the consequences (intended and unintended) of measures being put in place today or indeed due to failure by policymakers to act on certain issues

The Cost of Closure: Logical Realism, Anti-Exceptionalism, and Theoretical Equivalence

Philosophers of science often assume that logically equivalent theories are theoretically equivalent. I argue that two theses, anti-exceptionalism about logic (which says, roughly, that logic is not a priori, that it is revisable, and that it is not special or set apart from other human inquiry) and logical realism (which says, roughly, that differences in logic reflect genuine metaphysical differences in the world), make trouble for both this commitment and the closely related commitment to theories being closed under logical consequence. I provide three arguments. The first two show that anti-exceptionalism about logic provides an epistemic challenge to both the closure and the equivalence claims; the third shows that logical realism provides a metaphysical challenge to both the closure and the equivalence claims. Along the way, I show that there are important methodological upshots for metaphysicians and philosophers of logic. In particular, there are lessons to be drawn about certain conceptions of naturalism as constraining the possibilities for metaphysics and the philosophy of logic

New methods for the asymmetric synthesis of α-alkylated ketones and 1,3-amino alcohols

A large number of optically active drugs and natural products contain α-functionalised ketones or simple derivatives thereof. Furthermore, chiral α-alkylated ketones are useful synthons and have found widespread use in total synthesis. The asymmetric alkylation of ketones represents one of the most powerful and longstanding procedures in organic chemistry. Surprisingly, however, only one effective methodology is available, and this involves the use of chiral auxiliaries. This is discussed in Chapter 1, which also provides a background of other key topics discussed throughout the thesis. Expanding on the existing methodology of chiral auxiliaries, Chapter 2 details the synthesis of a novel chiral auxiliary containing a pyrrolidine ring and its use in the asymmetric preparation of α-alkylated ketones with good enantioselectivity. The synthesis of racemic α-alkylated ketones as reference standards for GC chromatography is also reported in this chapter. Chapter 3 details a new approach to chiral α-alkylated ketones using an intermolecular chirality transfer methodology. This approach employs the use of simple non-chiral dimethylhydrazones and their asymmetric alkylation using the chiral diamine ligands, (+)- and (-)-sparteine. The methodology described represents the first example of an asymmetric alkylation of non-chiral azaenolates. Enantiomeric ratios up to 83 : 17 are observed. Chapter 4 introduces the first aldol-Tishchenko reaction of an imine derivative for the preparation of 1,3-aminoalcohol precursors. 1,3-Aminoalcohols can be synthesised via indirect routes involving various permutations of stepwise construction with asymmetric induction. Our approach offers an alternative highly diastereomeric route to the synthesis of this important moiety utilising N-tert-butanesulfinyl imines in an aldol-Tishchenko-type reaction. Chapter 5 details the experimental procedures for all of the above work. Chapter 6 discusses the results of a separate research project undertaken during this PhD. 2-alkyl-quinolin-4-ones and their N-substituted derivatives have several important biological functions such as the role of Pseudomonas quinolone signal (PQS) in quorum sensing. Herein, we report the synthesis of its biological precursor, 2-heptyl-4-hydroxy-quinoline (HHQ) and possible isosteres of PQS; the C-3 Cl, Br and I analogues. N-Methylation of the iodide was also feasible and the usefulness of this compound showcased in Pd-catalysed cross-coupling reactions, thus allowing access to a diverse set of biologically important molecules

Why Mary Left Her Room

I argue for an account of grasping, or understanding that, on which we grasp via a higher-order mental act of Husserlian fulfillment. Fulfillment is the act of matching up the objects of our phenomenally presentational experiences with those of our phenomenally representational thought. Grasping-by-fulfilling is importantly different from standard epistemic aims, in part because it is phenomenal rather than inferential. (I endorse Bourget’s 2017 arguments to that effect.) I show that grasping-by-fulfilling cannot be a species of propositional knowledge or belief, and that it is not essentially connected to justification. I motivate a revisionary epistemology on which achieving propositional knowledge and coming to grasp are dual epistemic aims. My account makes sense of a common occurrence—that we are often unmoved to act on our beliefs until we come to phenomenally experience them in some way. It also explains puzzling features of human inquiry