Variation and statistical reliability of publicly reported primary care diagnostic activity indicators for cancer: a cross-sectional ecological study of routine data.

OBJECTIVES: Recent public reporting initiatives in England highlight general practice variation in indicators of diagnostic activity related to cancer. We aimed to quantify the size and sources of variation and the reliability of practice-level estimates of such indicators, to better inform how this information is interpreted and used for quality improvement purposes. DESIGN: Ecological cross-sectional study. SETTING: English primary care. PARTICIPANTS: All general practices in England with at least 1000 patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sixteen diagnostic activity indicators from the Cancer Services Public Health Profiles. RESULTS: Mixed-effects logistic and Poisson regression showed that substantial proportions of the observed variance in practice scores reflected chance, variably so for different indicators (between 7% and 85%). However, after accounting for the role of chance, there remained substantial variation between practices (typically up to twofold variation between the 75th and 25th centiles of practice scores, and up to fourfold variation between the 90th and 10th centiles). The age and sex profile of practice populations explained some of this variation, by different amounts across indicators. Generally, the reliability of diagnostic process indicators relating to broader populations of patients most of whom do not have cancer (eg, rate of endoscopic investigations, or urgent referrals for suspected cancer (also known as 'two week wait referrals')) was high (≥0.80) or very high (≥0.90). In contrast, the reliability of diagnostic outcome indicators relating to incident cancer cases (eg, per cent of all cancer cases detected after an emergency presentation) ranged from 0.24 to 0.54, which is well below recommended thresholds (≥0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Use of indicators of diagnostic activity in individual general practices should principally focus on process indicators which have adequate or high reliability and not outcome indicators which are unreliable at practice level

Technology-Enabled Health Care Collaboration in Pediatric Chronic Illness: Pre-post Interventional Study for Feasibility, Acceptability, and Clinical Impact of an Electronic Health Record–Linked Platform for Patient-Clinician Partnership

Background: Mobile health (mHealth) technology has the potential to support the Chronic Care Model\u27s vision of closed feedback loops and patient-clinician partnerships. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and short-term impact of an electronic health record-linked mHealth platform (Orchestra) supporting patient and clinician collaboration through real-time, bidirectional data sharing. Methods: We conducted a 6-month prospective, pre-post, proof-of-concept study of Orchestra among patients and parents in the Cincinnati Children\u27s Hospital inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and cystic fibrosis (CF) clinics. Participants and clinicians used Orchestra during and between visits to complete and view patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures and previsit plans. Surveys completed at baseline and at 3- and 6-month follow-up visits plus data from the platform were used to assess outcomes including PRO completion rates, weekly platform use, disease self-efficacy, and impact on care. Analyses included descriptive statistics; pre-post comparisons; Pearson correlations; and, if applicable, effect sizes. Results: We enrolled 92 participants (CF: n = 52 and IBD: n = 40), and 73% (67/92) completed the study. Average PRO completion was 61%, and average weekly platform use was 80%. Participants reported improvement in self-efficacy from baseline to 6 months (7.90 to 8.44; P = .006). At 6 months, most participants reported that the platform was useful (36/40, 90%) and had a positive impact on their care, including improved visit quality (33/40, 83%), visit collaboration (35/40, 88%), and visit preparation (31/40, 78%). PRO completion was positively associated with multiple indicators of care impact at 3 and 6 months. Conclusions: Use of an mHealth tool to support closed feedback loops through real-time data sharing and patient-clinician collaboration is feasible and shows indications of acceptability and promise as a strategy for improving pediatric chronic illness management

Diagnosis of cancer as an emergency: a critical review of current evidence

Many patients with cancer are diagnosed through an emergency presentation, which is associated with inferior clinical and patient-reported outcomes compared with those of patients who are diagnosed electively or through screening. Reducing the proportion of patients with cancer who are diagnosed as emergencies is, therefore, desirable; however, the optimal means of achieving this aim are uncertain owing to the involvement of different tumour, patient and health-care factors, often in combination. Most relevant evidence relates to patients with colorectal or lung cancer in a few economically developed countries, and defines emergency presentations contextually (that is, whether patients presented to emergency health-care services and/or received emergency treatment shortly before their diagnosis) as opposed to clinically (whether patients presented with life-threatening manifestations of their cancer). Consistent inequalities in the risk of emergency presentations by patient characteristics and cancer type have been described, but limited evidence is available on whether, and how, such presentations can be prevented. Evidence on patients' symptoms and health-care use before presentation as an emergency is sparse. In this Review, we describe the extent, causes and implications of a diagnosis of cancer following an emergency presentation, and provide recommendations for public health and health-care interventions, and research efforts aimed at addressing this under-researched aspect of cancer diagnosis

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Increased mitochondrial DNA diversity in ancient Columbia River basin Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

The Columbia River and its tributaries provide essential spawning and rearing habitat for many salmonid species, including Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Chinook salmon were historically abundant throughout the basin and Native Americans in the region relied heavily on these fish for thousands of years. Following the arrival of Europeans in the 1800s, salmon in the basin experienced broad declines linked to overfishing, water diversion projects, habitat destruction, connectivity reduction, introgression with hatchery-origin fish, and hydropower development. Despite historical abundance, many native salmonids are now at risk of extinction. Research and management related to Chinook salmon is usually explored under what are termed “the four H’s”: habitat, harvest, hatcheries, and hydropower; here we explore a fifth H, history. Patterns of prehistoric and contemporary mitochondrial DNA variation from Chinook salmon were analyzed to characterize and compare population genetic diversity prior to recent alterations and, thus, elucidate a deeper history for this species. A total of 346 ancient and 366 contemporary samples were processed during this study. Species was determined for 130 of the ancient samples and control region haplotypes of 84 of these were sequenced. Diversity estimates from these 84 ancient Chinook salmon were compared to 379 contemporary samples. Our analysis provides the first direct measure of reduced genetic diversity for Chinook salmon from the ancient to the contemporary period, as measured both in direct loss of mitochondrial haplotypes and reductions in haplotype and nucleotide diversity. However, these losses do not appear equal across the basin, with higher losses of diversity in the mid-Columbia than in the Snake subbasin. The results are unexpected, as the two groups were predicted to share a common history as parts of the larger Columbia River Basin, and instead indicate that Chinook salmon in these subbasins may have divergent demographic histories.Ye

Predicting lung function decline in cystic fibrosis:the impact of initiating ivacaftor therapy

BACKGROUND: Modulator therapies that seek to correct the underlying defect in cystic fibrosis (CF) have revolutionized the clinical landscape. Given the heterogeneous nature of lung disease progression in the post-modulator era, there is a need to develop prediction models that are robust to modulator uptake.METHODS: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal cohort study of the CF Foundation Patient Registry (N = 867 patients carrying the G551D mutation who were treated with ivacaftor from 2003 to 2018). The primary outcome was lung function (percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s or FEV1pp). To characterize the association between ivacaftor initiation and lung function, we developed a dynamic prediction model through covariate selection of demographic and clinical characteristics. The ability of the selected model to predict a decline in lung function, clinically known as an FEV1-indicated exacerbation signal (FIES), was evaluated both at the population level and individual level.RESULTS: Based on the final model, the estimated improvement in FEV1pp after ivacaftor initiation was 4.89% predicted (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.90 to 5.89). The rate of decline was reduced with ivacaftor initiation by 0.14% predicted/year (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.27). More frequent outpatient visits prior to study entry and being male corresponded to a higher overall FEV1pp. Pancreatic insufficiency, older age at study entry, a history of more frequent pulmonary exacerbations, lung infections, CF-related diabetes, and use of Medicaid insurance corresponded to lower FEV1pp. The model had excellent predictive accuracy for FIES events with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.83 to 0.84) for the independent testing cohort and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.89 to 0.90) for 6-month forecasting with the masked cohort. The root-mean-square errors of the FEV1pp predictions for these cohorts were 7.31% and 6.78% predicted, respectively, with standard deviations of 0.29 and 0.20. The predictive accuracy was robust across different covariate specifications.CONCLUSIONS: The methods and applications of dynamic prediction models developed using data prior to modulator uptake have the potential to inform post-modulator projections of lung function and enhance clinical surveillance in the new era of CF care.</p

Concentration of fractional excretion of nitric oxide (FENO): A potential airway biomarker of restored CFTR function

AbstractBackgroundLower airway biomarkers of restored cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) function are limited. We hypothesized that fractional excretion of nitric oxide (FENO), typically low in CF patients, would demonstrate reproducibility during CFTR-independent therapies, and increase during CFTR-specific intervention (ivacaftor) in patients with CFTR gating mutations.MethodsRepeated FENO and spirometry measurements in children with CF (Cohort 1; n=29) were performed during hospital admission for acute pulmonary exacerbations and routine outpatient care. FENO measurements before and after one month of ivacaftor treatment (150mg every 12h) were completed in CF patients with CFTR gating mutations (Cohort 2; n=5).ResultsCohort 1: Mean forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1 % predicted) at enrollment was 72.3% (range 25%–102%). Mean FENO measurements varied minimally over the two inpatient and two outpatient measurements (9.8–10.9ppb). There were no clear changes related to treatment of pulmonary exacerbations, gender, genotype or microbiology, and weak correlation with inhaled corticosteroid use (P<0.05). Between the two inpatient measurements, FEV1 % predicted increased by 7.3% (P<0.03) and FENO did not change. In Cohort 2, mean FENO increased from 6.6ppb (SD=2.19) to 11.8ppb (SD=4.97) during ivacaftor treatment. Mean sweat chloride dropped by 58mM and mean FEV1 % predicted increased by 10.2%.ConclusionsRepeated FENO measurements were stable in CF patients, whereas FENO increased in all patients with CFTR gating mutations treated with ivacaftor. Acute changes in FENO may serve as a biomarker of restored CFTR function in the CF lower airway during CFTR modulator treatment