Syndromic surveillance to assess the potential public health impact of the Icelandic volcanic ash plume across the United Kingdom, April 2010

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted on 14 April 2010 emitting a volcanic ash plume that spread across the United Kingdom and mainland Europe. The Health Protection Agency and Health Protection Scotland used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health during the incident: there were no particularly unusual increases in any of the monitored conditions. This incident has again demonstrated the use of syndromic surveillance systems for monitoring community health in real time

Reduced order modelling in searches for continuous gravitational waves - I. Barycentring time delays

The frequencies and phases of emission from extra-solar sources measured by Earth-bound observers are modulated by the motions of the observer with respect to the source, and through relativistic effects. These modulations depend critically on the source's sky-location. Precise knowledge of the modulations are required to coherently track the source's phase over long observations, for example, in pulsar timing, or searches for continuous gravitational waves. The modulations can be modelled as sky-location and time-dependent time delays that convert arrival times at the observer to the inertial frame of the source, which can often be the Solar system barycentre. We study the use of reduced order modelling for speeding up the calculation of this time delay for any sky-location. We find that the time delay model can be decomposed into just four basis vectors, and with these the delay for any sky-location can be reconstructed to sub-nanosecond accuracy. When compared to standard routines for time delay calculation in gravitational wave searches, using the reduced basis can lead to speed-ups of 30 times. We have also studied components of time delays for sources in binary systems. Assuming eccentricities <0.25, we can reconstruct the delays to within 100 s of nanoseconds, with best case speed-ups of a factor of 10, or factors of two when interpolating the basis for different orbital periods or time stamps. In long-duration phase-coherent searches for sources with sky-position uncertainties, or binary parameter uncertainties, these speed-ups could allow enhancements in their scopes without large additional computational burdens

The comparative clinical course of pregnant and non-pregnant women hospitalised with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection

Introduction: The Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) was established to gather detailed clinical and epidemiological information about patients with laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in UK hospitals. This report focuses on the clinical course and outcomes of infection in pregnancy.Methods: A standardised data extraction form was used to obtain detailed clinical information from hospital case notes and electronic records, for patients with PCR-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infection admitted to 13 sentinel hospitals in five clinical 'hubs' and a further 62 non-sentinel hospitals, between 11th May 2009 and 31st January 2010.Outcomes were compared for pregnant and non-pregnant women aged 15-44 years, using univariate and multivariable techniques.Results: Of the 395 women aged 15-44 years, 82 (21%) were pregnant; 73 (89%) in the second or third trimester. Pregnant women were significantly less likely to exhibit severe respiratory distress at initial assessment (OR?=?0.49 (95% CI: 0.30-0.82)), require supplemental oxygen on admission (OR?=?0.40 (95% CI: 0.20-0.80)), or have underlying co-morbidities (p-trend &lt;0.001). However, they were equally likely to be admitted to high dependency (Level 2) or intensive care (Level 3) and/or to die, after adjustment for potential confounders (adj. OR?=?0.93 (95% CI: 0.46-1.92). Of 11 pregnant women needing Level 2/3 care, 10 required mechanical ventilation and three died.Conclusions: Since the expected prevalence of pregnancy in the source population was 6%, our data suggest that pregnancy greatly increased the likelihood of hospital admission with A(H1N1)pdm09. Pregnant women were less likely than non-pregnant women to have respiratory distress on admission, but severe outcomes were equally likely in both groups

Together forever? Explaining exclusivity in party-firm relations

Parties and firms are the key actors of representative democracy and capitalism respectively and the dynamic of attachment between them is a central feature of any political economy. This is the first article to systematically analyse the exclusivity of party-firm relations. We consider exclusivity at a point in time and exclusivity over time. Does a firm have a relationship with only one party at a given point in time, or is it close to more than one party? Does a firm maintain a relationship with only one party over time, or does it switch between parties? Most important, how do patterns of exclusivity impact on a firm’s ability to lobby successfully? We propose a general theory, which explains patterns of party-firm relations by reference to the division of institutions and the type of party competition in a political system. A preliminary test of our theory with Polish survey data confirms our predictions, establishing a promising hypothesis for future research

An unusually large myofibroblastoma in a male breast: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Myofibroblastoma of the breast is a rare benign stromal tumour seen predominantly in men. The gross appearance is that of a well-circumscribed nodule, characteristically small, seldom exceeding 3 cm. We present a case of an unusually large myofibroblastoma, which mimicked a malignant breast tumour.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 65-year-old man presented with a rapid enlargement of the right breast over 6 weeks. Examination revealed a firm 15 cm hemispherical lump occupying the whole of the right breast with peau d'orange appearance of the overlying skin and distortion of the nipple. The clinical and radiological features suggested the possibility of sarcoma of the breast. However, a guided Tru-Cut biopsy was inconclusive. A mastectomy was performed to remove the tumour, which weighed more than 2 kg. Histopathology and immunocytochemistry revealed a mixed classical and collagenised type of myofibroblastoma. The patient is well with no evidence of recurrence 5 years after the mastectomy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This unexpected presentation of an unusually large myofibroblastoma in a male breast is the largest reported to date. Myofibroblastomas can mimic malignant neoplasms and the clinical significance of this entity lies primarily in its recognition as a distinctive benign neoplasm.</p

Effect of ethnicity on care pathway and outcomes in patients hospitalized with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the UK

Data were extracted from the case records of UK patients admitted with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. White and non-White patients were characterized by age, sex, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave and indicators of pre-morbid health status. Logistic regression examined differences by ethnicity in patient characteristics, care pathway and clinical outcomes; multivariable models controlled for potential confounders. Whites (n = 630) and non-Whites (n = 510) differed by age, socioeconomic status, pandemic wave of admission, pregnancy, recorded obesity, previous and current smoking, and presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. After adjustment for a priori confounders non-Whites were less likely to have received pre-admission antibiotics [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0·43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·28–0·68, P < 0·001) but more likely to receive antiviral drugs as in-patients (aOR 1·53, 95% CI 1·08–2·18, P = 0·018). However, there were no significant differences by ethnicity in delayed admission, severity at presentation for admission, or likelihood of severe outcome

Comparison of CATs, CURB-65 and PMEWS as Triage Tools in Pandemic Influenza Admissions to UK Hospitals: Case Control Analysis Using Retrospective Data

Triage tools have an important role in pandemics to identify those most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. We compared Community Assessment Tools (CATs), the CURB-65 score, and the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS); to predict higher levels of care (high dependency - Level 2 or intensive care - Level 3) and/or death in patients at or shortly after admission to hospital with A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza. This was a case-control analysis using retrospectively collected data from the FLU-CIN cohort (1040 adults, 480 children) with PCR-confirmed A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Area under receiver operator curves (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values and negative predictive values were calculated. CATs best predicted Level 2/3 admissions in both adults [AUROC (95% CI): CATs 0.77 (0.73, 0.80); CURB-65 0.68 (0.64, 0.72); PMEWS 0.68 (0.64, 0.73), p<0.001] and children [AUROC: CATs 0.74 (0.68, 0.80); CURB-65 0.52 (0.46, 0.59); PMEWS 0.69 (0.62, 0.75), p<0.001]. CURB-65 and CATs were similar in predicting death in adults with both performing better than PMEWS; and CATs best predicted death in children. CATs were the best predictor of Level 2/3 care and/or death for both adults and children. CATs are potentially useful triage tools for predicting need for higher levels of care and/or mortality in patients of all ages

Cigarette smoke exposure facilitates allergic sensitization in mice

BACKGROUND: Active and passive smoking are considered as risk factors for asthma development. The mechanisms involved are currently unexplained. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine if cigarette smoke exposure could facilitate primary allergic sensitization. METHODS: BALB/c mice were exposed to aerosolized ovalbumin (OVA) combined with air or tobacco smoke (4 exposures/day) daily for three weeks. Serology, lung cytopathology, cytokine profiles in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and on mediastinal lymph node cultures as well as lung function tests were performed after the last exposure. The natural history and the immune memory of allergic sensitization were studied with in vivo recall experiments. RESULTS: Exposure to OVA induced a small increase in OVA-specific serum IgE as compared with exposure to PBS (P < 0.05), while no inflammatory reaction was observed in the airways. Exposure to cigarette smoke did not induce IgE, but was characterized by a small but significant neutrophilic inflammatory reaction. Combining OVA with cigarette smoke not only induced a significant increase in OVA-specific IgE but also a distinct eosinophil and goblet cell enriched airway inflammation albeit that airway hyperresponsiveness was not evidenced. FACS analysis showed in these mice increases in dendritic cells (DC) and CD4(+ )T-lymphocytes along with a marked increase in IL-5 measured in the supernatant of lymph node cell cultures. Immune memory experiments evidenced the transient nature of these phenomena. CONCLUSION: In this study we show that mainstream cigarette smoke temporary disrupts the normal lung homeostatic tolerance to innocuous inhaled allergens, thereby inducing primary allergic sensitization. This is characterized not only by the development of persistent IgE, but also by the emergence of an eosinophil rich pulmonary inflammatory reaction