Likelihood inference for exponential-trawl processes

Integer-valued trawl processes are a class of serially correlated, stationary and infinitely divisible processes that Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen has been working on in recent years. In this Chapter, we provide the first analysis of likelihood inference for trawl processes by focusing on the so-called exponential-trawl process, which is also a continuous time hidden Markov process with countable state space. The core ideas include prediction decomposition, filtering and smoothing, complete-data analysis and EM algorithm. These can be easily scaled up to adapt to more general trawl processes but with increasing computation efforts.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures, forthcoming in: "A Fascinating Journey through Probability, Statistics and Applications: In Honour of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen's 80th Birthday", Springer, New Yor

Digestibility in selected rainbow trout families and modelling of growth from the specific intake of digestible protein

The experiments aimed to clarify variations in digestibility of dietary nutrients in rainbow trout. Furthermore, the objective was to study how differences in digestibility might be related to growth and feed utilisation at various growth rates. When comparing the results from the experiments it appeared that particularly protein digestibility was closely related to specific growth rate and feed conversion ratio at high growth rates. As a tool to visualise the relationship between protein digestibility and growth of rainbow trout a growth model was developed based on the specific intake of digestible protein, and general assumptions on protein content and protein retention efficiency in rainbow trout. The model indicated that increased protein digestibility only partly explained growth increase and that additional factors were important for growth increment

Atom--Molecule Coherence in a Bose-Einstein Condensate

Coherent coupling between atoms and molecules in a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) has been observed. Oscillations between atomic and molecular states were excited by sudden changes in the magnetic field near a Feshbach resonance and persisted for many periods of the oscillation. The oscillation frequency was measured over a large range of magnetic fields and is in excellent quantitative agreement with the energy difference between the colliding atom threshold energy and the energy of the bound molecular state. This agreement indicates that we have created a quantum superposition of atoms and diatomic molecules, which are chemically different species.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

A mediation approach to understanding socio-economic inequalities in maternal health-seeking behaviours in Egypt.

BACKGROUND: The levels and origins of socio-economic inequalities in health-seeking behaviours in Egypt are poorly understood. This paper assesses the levels of health-seeking behaviours related to maternal care (antenatal care [ANC] and facility delivery) and their accumulation during pregnancy and childbirth. Secondly, it explores the mechanisms underlying the association between socio-economic position (SEP) and maternal health-seeking behaviours. Thirdly, it examines the effectiveness of targeting of free public ANC and delivery care. METHODS: Data from the 2008 Demographic and Health Survey were used to capture two latent constructs of SEP: individual socio-cultural capital and household-level economic capital. These variables were entered into an adjusted mediation model, predicting twelve dimensions of maternal health-seeking; including any ANC, private ANC, first ANC visit in first trimester, regular ANC (four or more visits during pregnancy), facility delivery, and private delivery. ANC and delivery care costs were examined separately by provider type (public or private). RESULTS: While 74.2% of women with a birth in the 5-year recall period obtained any ANC and 72.4% delivered in a facility, only 48.8% obtained the complete maternal care package (timely and regular facility-based ANC as well as facility delivery) for their most recent live birth. Both socio-cultural capital and economic capital were independently positively associated with receiving any ANC and delivering in a facility. The strongest direct effect of socio-cultural capital was seen in models predicting private provider use of both ANC and delivery. Despite substantial proportions of women using public providers reporting receipt of free care (ANC: 38%, delivery: 24%), this free-of-charge public care was not effectively targeted to women with lowest economic resources. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-cultural capital is the primary mechanism leading to inequalities in maternal health-seeking in Egypt. Future studies should therefore examine the objective and perceived quality of care from different types of providers. Improvements in the targeting of free public care could help reduce the existing SEP-based inequalities in maternal care coverage in the short term

Extremely high He isotope ratios in MORB-source mantle from the proto-Iceland plume

The high <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He ratio of volcanic rocks thought to be derived from mantle plumes is taken as evidence for the existence of a mantle reservoir that has remained largely undegassed since the Earth's accretion. The helium isotope composition of this reservoir places constraints on the origin of volatiles within the Earth and on the evolution and structure of the Earth's mantle. Here we show that olivine phenocrysts in picritic basalts presumably derived from the proto-Iceland plume at Baffin Island, Canada, have the highest magmatic <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He ratios yet recorded. A strong correlation between <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He and <sup>87</sup>Sr/<sup>86</sup>Sr, <sup>143</sup>Nd/<sup>144</sup>Nd and trace element ratios demonstrate that the <sup>3</sup>He-rich end-member is present in basalts that are derived from large-volume melts of depleted upper-mantle rocks. This reservoir is consistent with the recharging of depleted upper-mantle rocks by small volumes of primordial volatile-rich lower-mantle material at a thermal boundary layer between convectively isolated reservoirs. The highest <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He basalts from Hawaii and Iceland plot on the observed mixing trend. This indicates that a <sup>3</sup>He-recharged depleted mantle (HRDM) reservoir may be the principal source of high <sup>3</sup>He/<sup>4</sup>He in mantle plumes, and may explain why the helium concentration of the 'plume' component in ocean island basalts is lower than that predicted for a two-layer, steady-state model of mantle structure

On reminder effects, drop-outs and dominance: evidence from an online experiment on charitable giving

We present the results of an experiment that (a) shows the usefulness of screening out drop-outs and (b) tests whether different methods of payment and reminder intervals affect charitable giving. Following a lab session, participants could make online donations to charity for a total duration of three months. Our procedure justifying the exclusion of drop-outs consists in requiring participants to collect payments in person flexibly and as known in advance and as highlighted to them later. Our interpretation is that participants who failed to collect their positive payments under these circumstances are likely not to satisfy dominance. If we restrict the sample to subjects who did not drop out, but not otherwise, reminders significantly increase the overall amount of charitable giving. We also find that weekly reminders are no more effective than monthly reminders in increasing charitable giving, and that, in our three months duration experiment, standing orders do not increase giving relative to one-off donations

Comparative population structure of <i>Plasmodium malariae</i> and <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> under different transmission settings in Malawi

&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Described here is the first population genetic study of Plasmodium malariae, the causative agent of quartan malaria. Although not as deadly as Plasmodium falciparum, P. malariae is more common than previously thought, and is frequently in sympatry and co-infection with P. falciparum, making its study increasingly important. This study compares the population parameters of the two species in two districts of Malawi with different malaria transmission patterns - one seasonal, one perennial - to explore the effects of transmission on population structures. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Six species-specific microsatellite markers were used to analyse 257 P. malariae samples and 257 P. falciparum samples matched for age, gender and village of residence. Allele sizes were scored to within 2 bp for each locus and haplotypes were constructed from dominant alleles in multiple infections. Analysis of multiplicity of infection (MOI), population differentiation, clustering of haplotypes and linkage disequilibrium was performed for both species. Regression analyses were used to determine association of MOI measurements with clinical malaria parameters. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; Multiple-genotype infections within each species were common in both districts, accounting for 86.0% of P. falciparum and 73.2% of P. malariae infections and did not differ significantly with transmission setting. Mean MOI of P. falciparum was increased under perennial transmission compared with seasonal (3.14 vs 2.59, p = 0.008) and was greater in children compared with adults. In contrast, P. malariae mean MOI was similar between transmission settings (2.12 vs 2.11) and there was no difference between children and adults. Population differentiation showed no significant differences between villages or districts for either species. There was no evidence of geographical clustering of haplotypes. Linkage disequilibrium amongst loci was found only for P. falciparum samples from the seasonal transmission setting. &lt;BR/&gt; &lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; The extent of similarity between P. falciparum and P. malariae population structure described by the high level of multiple infection, the lack of significant population differentiation or haplotype clustering and lack of linkage disequilibrium is surprising given the differences in the biological features of these species that suggest a reduced potential for out-crossing and transmission in P. malariae. The absence of a rise in P. malariae MOI with increased transmission or a reduction in MOI with age could be explained by differences in the duration of infection or degree of immunity compared to P. falciparum

Identifying adverse outcome pathways (AOP) for Amsterdam City Fish by integrated field monitoring

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordThe European City Fish project aimed to develop a generic methodology for ecological risk assessment for urban rivers. Since traditional methods only consider a small fraction of substances present in the water cycle, biological effect monitoring is required for a more reliable assessment of the pollution status. A major challenge for environmental risk assessment (ERA) is the application of adverse outcome pathways (AOP), i.e. the linking of pollutant exposure via early molecular and biochemical changes to physiological effects and, ultimately, effects on populations and ecosystems. We investigated the linkage between responses at these different levels. Many AOP aspects were investigated, from external and internal exposure to different classes of micropollutants, via molecular key events (MKE) the impacts on organs and organisms (fish physiology), to changes in the population dynamics of fish. Risk assessment procedures were evaluated by comparing environmental quality standards, bioassay responses, biomarkers in caged and feral fish, and the impact on fish populations. Although no complete AOP was observed, indirect relationships linking pollutant exposure via MKE to impaired locomotion were demonstrated at the most polluted site near a landfill for chemical waste. The pathway indicated that several upstream key events requiring energy for stress responses and toxic defence are likely to converge at a single common MKE: increased metabolic demands. Both fish biomarkers and the bioanalytical SIMONI strategy are valuable indicators for micropollutant risks to fish communities.City of AmsterdamEuropean UnionWaternet Institute for the Urban Water Cycle, Amsterda

Beam characterisation and machine development at VELA

An overview is presented of developments on VELA (Versatile Electron Linear Accelerator), an RF photoinjector with two user stations (beam areas BA1, and BA2) at Daresbury Laboratory. Numerous machine development, commissioning, beam characterisation and user experiments have been completed in the past year. A new beamline and a dedicated multi-purpose chamber have been commissioned in BA1 and the first experiments performed. A number of measures have been taken to improve the stability of machine by mitigating problems with a phase drift, laser beam transport drift and a coherent beam oscillation. The 6D phase space of the electron beam has been characterised through quadrupole scans, transverse tomography and with a transverse deflecting cavity