MODELING THE EFFECT OF SPATIAL EXTERNALITIES ON INVASIVE SPECIES MANAGEMENT

Changes in production conditions associated with biological invasions can be complex. As a result, modeling invasive species management decisions can be difficult. Modeling these decisions is further compounded by externalities associated with spatial relationships among growers. In order to calculate optimal management decisions, an accurate bioeconomic model of the feedback between grower decisions and the new biological interactions created by an invasive species population is needed. In this paper, a bioeconomic model is used to explicitly analyze how externalities caused by spatial relationships among agricultural producers affect optimal invasive species management decisions. The example of the coordinated greenhouse whitefly management in the Oxnard, CA, area is discussed. This is an interesting example because of the complex cycle of host crops used by the whitefly and the effect this cycle has on the optimal whitefly management decisions for strawberry growers. Three research objectives achieved in this paper include first, using the model to assess how the spatial relationship among growers affects incentives for regional invasive pest management. Second, analyze whether current policies could be adjusted to substitute for coordination among growers. Third, the use of the bioeconomic model to identify factors for this specific case that affect whether or not growers may voluntarily coordinate their management decisions. We find that spatial relationships among growers affect the need for coordination in the strawberry/whitefly case. Whitefly migrations across host crop fields require growers to manage the whitefly on a regional basis in order to maximize strawberry producer welfare. The results also indicate that the amount of effort needed to achieve coordination required is limited; the only requirement is that information related to field management be shared among growers of whitefly host crops. The results from the bioeconomic model describe the biological and economic feedback of the grower's decision which allows policymakers to identify the willingness of producers to coordinate at various times of year. In the Oxnard strawberry/whitefly case, for example, growers will not find it optimal to adjust their application timing for a second immigration of adult greenhouse whiteflies when they occur near the end of the season, such as in May or June, but will for earlier points in the season. Three policy implications of the results from the strawberry/whitefly case are also discussed in the paper. First, adjustments to current policies regulating whitefly management do not remove the need for coordination among growers to them. Also, it was found that current policies do not, by themselves, generate the need for coordination. Finally, the results show it is not always necessary to create a central agency for regional invasive species management.Invasive species, strawberry, greenhouse whitefly, externality, optimal management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Развитие творческих способностей учащихся на учебных занятиях по трудовому обучению и на занятиях дополнительного образования

Секция 1. Технический труд и техническое творчеств

Costs of 2001 methyl bromide rules estimated for California strawberry industry

The California Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) restricts pesticide use to reduce negative impacts on human health and the environment. The DPR implemented methyl bromide use regulations in 2001. Our study demonstrates that the estimated 2001 costs of these regulations for the California strawberry industry were quite substantial (more than $26 million total), equivalent to roughly 25% of estimated industry returns over total cash costs in 2001. These impacts were unevenly distributed across growers. Growers with small fields in urban areas had higher peracre costs than growers with large fields in agricultural areas

Cloned, CD117 Selected Human Amniotic Fluid Stem Cells Are Capable of Modulating the Immune Response

Amniotic fluid stem (AFS) cells are broadly multipotent, can be expanded extensively in culture, are not tumorigenic and can be readily cryopreserved for cell banking. Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) show immunomodulatory activity and secrete a wide spectrum of cytokines and chemokines that suppress inflammatory responses, block mixed lymphocyte reactions (MLR) and other immune reactions, and have proven therapeutic against conditions such as graft-versus-host disease. AFS cells resemble MSCs in many respects including surface marker expression and differentiation potential. We therefore hypothesized that AFS cells may exhibit similar immunomodulatory capabilities. We present data to demonstrate that direct contact with AFS cells inhibits lymphocyte activation. In addition, we show that cell-free supernatants derived from AFS cells primed with total blood monocytes or IL-1β, a cytokine released by monocytes and essential in mediation of the inflammatory response, also inhibited lymphocyte activation. Further investigation of AFS cell-free supernatants by protein array revealed secretion of multiple factors in common with MSCs that are known to be involved in immune regulation including growth related oncogene (GRO) and monocyte chemotactic protein (MCP) family members as well as interleukin-6 (IL-6). AFS cells activated by PBMCs released several additional cytokines as compared to BM-MSCs, including macrophage inflammatory protein-3α (MIP-3α), MIP-1α and Activin. AFS cells also released higher levels of MCP-1 and lower levels of MCP-2 compared to BM-MSCs in response to IL-1β activation. This suggests that there may be some AFS-specific mechanisms of inhibition of lymphocyte activation. Our results indicate that AFS cells are able to suppress inflammatory responses in vitro and that soluble factors are an essential component in the communication between lymphocytes and AFS cells. Their extensive self-renewal capacity, possibility for banking and absence of tumorigenicity may make AFS cells a superior source of stable, well characterized “off the shelf” immunomodulatory cells for a variety of immunotherapies

The incidence of idiopathic intracranial hypertension in Scotland : a SOSU study

This study was supported by the Scottish Ophthalmic Surveillance Unit, through the Ross Foundation SOSU study bursary.Background: Idiopathic intracranial hypertension most commonly affects women of childbearing age and usually causes headache and intermittent visual obscurations. Some patients suffer permanent visual loss. The major modifiable risk factor associated with IIH is obesity. Scotland has one of the poorest records for obesity in the western world, with a prevalence in 2016 of 29% in the adult population. We aimed to establish the incidence of idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) in Scotland. Methods: All new cases of IIH seen in Scotland were collected over a 1-year period. Cases were reported by ophthalmologists through the Scottish Ophthalmic Surveillance Unit (SOSU) and by neurologists directly to the investigators using encrypted NHS emails. An open dialogue was maintained between the investigators and specialist neuro-ophthalmology clinics throughout the year to minimise the risk of under-reporting. Cases were defined using the Modified Dandy Diagnostic Criteria. Results: One hundred and forty-four confirmed cases of IIH were reported. One hundred and ten out of 144 patients were female and aged 15–44. The mean BMI in this group was 38.9. Conclusions: The incidence of IIH in Scotland is at least 2.65/100,000. This figure rises to 37.9/100,000 in obese females aged 15–44. This figure is higher than previously published and is probably a result of increasing levels of obesity across the nation. The significant morbidity caused by IIH, in this young population raises the question of whether enough is being done to prevent and treat Scotland’s obesity crisis.PostprintPeer reviewe

How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020

BackgroundThe risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk.MethodsWe estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity.ResultsWe estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (&gt;1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%).ConclusionBased on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.Research in contextEvidence before this studyAs the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, countries are considering policies of ‘shielding’ the most vulnerable, but there is currently very limited evidence on the number of individuals that might need to be shielded. Guidelines on who is currently believed to be at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness have been published online by the WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We searched PubMed (“Risk factors” AND “COVID-19”) without language restrictions, from database inception until April 5, 2020, and identified 62 studies published between Feb 15, 2020 and March 20, 2020. Evidence from China, Italy and the USA indicates that older individuals, males and those with underlying conditions, such as CVD, diabetes and CRD, are at greater risk of severe COVID-19 illness and death.Added value of this studyThis study combines evidence from large international databases and new analysis of large multimorbidity studies to inform policymakers about the number of individuals that may be at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness in different countries. We developed a tool for rapid assessments of the number and percentage of country populations that would need to be targeted under different shielding policies.Implications of all the available evidenceQuantifying how many and who is at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness is critical to help countries design more effective interventions to protect vulnerable individuals and reduce pressure on health systems. This information can also inform a broader assessment of the health, social and economic implications of shielding various groups.</jats:sec

Informing investment to reduce inequalities: a modelling approach

Background: Reducing health inequalities is an important policy objective but there is limited quantitative information about the impact of specific interventions. Objectives: To provide estimates of the impact of a range of interventions on health and health inequalities. Materials and methods: Literature reviews were conducted to identify the best evidence linking interventions to mortality and hospital admissions. We examined interventions across the determinants of health: a ‘living wage’; changes to benefits, taxation and employment; active travel; tobacco taxation; smoking cessation, alcohol brief interventions, and weight management services. A model was developed to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in intervention and comparison populations over a 20-year time period following interventions delivered only in the first year. We estimated changes in inequalities using the relative index of inequality (RII). Results: Introduction of a ‘living wage’ generated the largest beneficial health impact, with modest reductions in health inequalities. Benefits increases had modest positive impacts on health and health inequalities. Income tax increases had negative impacts on population health but reduced inequalities, while council tax increases worsened both health and health inequalities. Active travel increases had minimally positive effects on population health but widened health inequalities. Increases in employment reduced inequalities only when targeted to the most deprived groups. Tobacco taxation had modestly positive impacts on health but little impact on health inequalities. Alcohol brief interventions had modestly positive impacts on health and health inequalities only when strongly socially targeted, while smoking cessation and weight-reduction programmes had minimal impacts on health and health inequalities even when socially targeted. Conclusions: Interventions have markedly different effects on mortality, hospitalisations and inequalities. The most effective (and likely cost-effective) interventions for reducing inequalities were regulatory and tax options. Interventions focused on individual agency were much less likely to impact on inequalities, even when targeted at the most deprived communities

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. METHODS: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as "at increased risk of severe COVID-19" in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection-hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection-hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. FINDINGS: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0-2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15-28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from 66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186-787) people (4% [3-9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3-12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2-7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. INTERPRETATION: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. FUNDING: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

The translation research in a dental setting (TRiaDS) programme protocol

Background: It is well documented that the translation of knowledge into clinical practice is a slow and haphazard process. This is no less true for dental healthcare than other types of healthcare. One common policy strategy to help promote knowledge translation is the production of clinical guidance, but it has been demonstrated that the simple publication of guidance is unlikely to optimise practice. Additional knowledge translation interventions have been shown to be effective, but effectiveness varies and much of this variation is unexplained. The need for researchers to move beyond single studies to develop a generalisable, theory based, knowledge translation framework has been identified.For dentistry in Scotland, the production of clinical guidance is the responsibility of the Scottish Dental Clinical Effectiveness Programme (SDCEP). TRiaDS (Translation Research in a Dental Setting) is a multidisciplinary research collaboration, embedded within the SDCEP guidance development process, which aims to establish a practical evaluative framework for the translation of guidance and to conduct and evaluate a programme of integrated, multi-disciplinary research to enhance the science of knowledge translation.Methods: Set in General Dental Practice the TRiaDS programmatic evaluation employs a standardised process using optimal methods and theory. For each SDCEP guidance document a diagnostic analysis is undertaken alongside the guidance development process. Information is gathered about current dental care activities. Key recommendations and their required behaviours are identified and prioritised. Stakeholder questionnaires and interviews are used to identify and elicit salient beliefs regarding potential barriers and enablers towards the key recommendations and behaviours. Where possible routinely collected data are used to measure compliance with the guidance and to inform decisions about whether a knowledge translation intervention is required. Interventions are theory based and informed by evidence gathered during the diagnostic phase and by prior published evidence. They are evaluated using a range of experimental and quasi-experimental study designs, and data collection continues beyond the end of the intervention to investigate the sustainability of an intervention effect.Discussion: The TRiaDS programmatic approach is a significant step forward towards the development of a practical, generalisable framework for knowledge translation research. The multidisciplinary composition of the TRiaDS team enables consideration of the individual, organisational and system determinants of professional behaviour change. In addition the embedding of TRiaDS within a national programme of guidance development offers a unique opportunity to inform and influence the guidance development process, and enables TRiaDS to inform dental services practitioners, policy makers and patients on how best to translate national recommendations into routine clinical activities

Epigenetic Differences in Cortical Neurons from a Pair of Monozygotic Twins Discordant for Alzheimer's Disease

DNA methylation [1], [2] is capable of modulating coordinate expression of large numbers of genes across many different pathways, and may therefore warrant investigation for their potential role between genes and disease phenotype. In a rare set of monozygotic twins discordant for Alzheimer's disease (AD), significantly reduced levels of DNA methylation were observed in temporal neocortex neuronal nuclei of the AD twin. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that epigenetic mechanisms may mediate at the molecular level the effects of life events on AD risk, and provide, for the first time, a potential explanation for AD discordance despite genetic similarities