The implementation of positive behavior supports to reduce student elopement

The purpose of this study was to implement positive behavior supports to reduce student elopement. The participant of this study was a female fifth grade student who is diagnosed with Specific Learning Disability and has had documented chronic elopement issues. The experimental design was used in this study. First, a baseline period occurred where data was collected on the frequency of the student\u27s elopement behavior. Then, the positive behavior support of a small tangible daily classroom reward was earned by the student when she did not elope. Next, a reversal period occurred where the student did not receive any positive behavior supports. Finally, the second positive behavior support was implemented and the student received positive praise for not eloping throughout the school day. The independent variables for this study were the positive behavior supports of a small tangible reward and positive praise. The dependent variable was the number of elopements throughout the day. Both positive behavior supports of a small tangible reward and positive praise reduced the number of times the student eloped. A small tangible reward was the most effective strategy implemented to reduce this student from eloping

Tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability revealed by a 140-year subantarctic temperate reconstruction

Occupying 14% of the world’s surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in global climate, ocean circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet stability. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine-atmosphere-ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on southwest Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52–54˚S). Our annually-resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the mid-twentieth century, a phenomenon predating the observational record. Climate reanalysis and modelling shows a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

The protection of land, as part of the environment, for the future.

The land is a precious resource, vital for humanity’s survival, yet it is under threat from deforestation, climate change and biodiversity loss. Despite awareness and acknowledgment of the need to tackle these issues, little truly effective has been implemented to-date. This research proposes property theory synthesised with sustainability as the mechanism to affect the change needed to protect the land, as part of the environment. Two clear limbs form the framework of this research: the theory of property and sustainability. Property theory provides an already acknowledged mechanism for change and private property has been selected to reflect humanity’s resistance to modify its behaviour (most notably our reluctance to restrict consumption); to facilitate a new approach using a familiar and recognisable paradigm; and to create a modified model (described as the Land Model) implemented through legislation Sustainability then forms the basis of this new restriction, developed through a critical analysis of sustainability and sustainability indicators (the means of measuring sustainability), ultimately placing a restriction (described here as the Sustainability Restriction) on the rate of biodiversity loss, change in land use and tree cover loss. Strong sustainability, with its emphasis on the land as part of the environment, underpins the ethical approach taken in this research. Finally, post-devolution legislation in England and Wales (together Britain, the geographical area selected for this research) is analysed to propose that Wales would best support the use of the new paradigm. This research advocates pro-active change but, acknowledging that good intentions rarely reach fruition through radical change, a series of incentives are proposed to encourage reactive change. The proposal is for slow, but steady, ground-up change: a velvet property revolution

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

<div><p>Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of <i>c</i>. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, <i>Dracophyllum longifolium</i> and <i>Dracophyllum scoparium</i> over the second half of the 20^th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.</p></div

Pearson's product-moment correlations between climate variables and mean site-level annual growth and establishment between 1941 and 1999.

<p>Relationships with a correlation score >0.25 are indicated by bold typeface. Growth and establishment values are the average values across the five plots. GGD 5 °C refers to growing degree days above 5 °C during the summer months and wFDD refers to freezing degree days calculated as the summed difference in the mean daily temperature from 0 °C over the winter months. A negative FDD value indicates temperatures above freezing (0 °C).</p

Age-class structure across all plots according to a) establishment year and b) climatic conditions.

<p>A) Frequency distributions of the year of establishment (in 5 year bins) for <i>Dracophyllum</i> plants across all plots. Dashed vertical lines represent the period in which farming occurred on the island. Livestock number and distribution were limited after 1931 but were not eradicated until 1991. This figure is modified from Bestic et al. <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0093241#pone.0093241-Bestic1" target="_blank">[5]</a>. B) The percent of total establishment across all plots in four winter climate categories between 1941 and 1993 according to winter precipitation and maximum temperature. Winter climate at the year of establishment is classed as whether winters were wet (>400 mm total precipitation) or dry (<400 mm total precipitation) and warm (>7°C on average) or cool (<7°C on average).</p

Results from the a) linear regression model for growth and b) logistic regression model for age-class structure fit within a Bayesian framework.

<p>The mean (filled dots) and 95% credible intervals (solid lines) for the parameter estimates describe the effect of each explanatory variable on plot-level annual growth rates. Categorical variables are relative to a reference class (good soil drainage, eutrophic soil type, <i>D. scoparium</i> species) as described in the Methods section. Credible intervals crossing the zero line (dashed) are not significant.</p

The relationship between the average site-wide mean annual growth rate and a) the symmetry of the maximum temperature around the mean (skew) and b) the amplitude of the scattering (standard deviation).

<p>The relationship between the average site-wide mean annual growth rate and a) the symmetry of the maximum temperature around the mean (skew) and b) the amplitude of the scattering (standard deviation).</p