Algorithms in time series

The use of finitely parametrized linear models such as ARMA models in analysing time series data has been extensively studied and in recent years there has been an increasing emphasis on the development of fast regression—based algorithms for the problem of model identification. In this thesis we investigate the statistical properties of pseudo—linear regression algorithms in the context of off-line and online (real-time) identification. A review of these procedures is presented in Part I in relation to the problem of identifying an appropriate ARMA model from observed time series data. Thus, criteria introduced by Akaike and Rissanen are important here to ensure a model of sufficient complexity is selected, based on the data. In chapter 1 we survey published results pertaining to the statistical properties of identification procedures in the off-line context and show there are important differences as concerns the asymptotic performance of certain parameter estimation algorithms. However, to effect the identification process in real-time recursive estimation algorithms are required. Furthermore, these procedures need to be adaptive to be applicable in practice. This is discussed in chapter 2. Technical results and limit theorems required for the theoretical analysis conducted in Part II are collated in chapter 3. Chapters 4 and 5 of Part II are therefore devoted to the detailed investigation of particular algorithms discussed in Part I. Chapter 4 deals with off-line parameter estimation algorithms and in chapter 5, the important idea of a Description Length Principle introduced by Rissanen, is examined in the context of the recursive estimation of autoregressions. Empirical evidence from simulation experiments are also reported in each chapter and in chapter 5, aspects of speech analysis are incorporated in the simulation study. The simulation results bear out the theory and the proofs of asymptotic results are given at the end of the chapter

Tinker, tailor or transform: gender equality amidst social-ecological change

Global visions of environmental change consider gender equality to be a foundation of sustainable social-ecological systems. Similarly, social-ecological systems frameworks position gender equality as both a precursor to, and a product of, system sustainability. Yet, the degree to which gender equality is being advanced through social-ecological systems change is uncertain. We use the case of small-scale fisheries in the Pacific Islands region to explore the proposition that different social-ecological narratives: (1) ecological, (2) social-ecological, and (3) social, shape the gender equality priorities, intentions and impacts of implementing organizations. We conducted interviews with regional and national fisheries experts (n = 71) and analyzed gender commitments made within policies (n = 29) that influence small-scale fisheries. To explore these data, we developed a 'Tinker-Tailor-Transform' gender assessment typology. We find that implementing organizations aligned with the social-ecological and social narratives considered social (i.e., human-centric) goals to be equally or more important than ecological (i.e., eco-centric) goals. Yet in action, gender equality was pursued instrumentally to achieve ecological goals and/or shallow project performance targets. These results highlight that although commitments to gender equality were common, when operationalized commitments become diluted and reoriented. Across all three narratives, organizations mostly 'Tinkered' with gender equality in impact, for example, including more women in spaces that otherwise tended to be dominated by men. Impacts predominately focused on the individual (i.e., changing women) rather than driving communal-to-societal level change. We discuss three interrelated opportunities for organizations in applying the 'Tinker-Tailor-Transform' assessment typology, including its utility to assist organizations to orient toward intrinsic goals; challenge or reconfigure system attributes that perpetuate gender inequalities; and consciously interrogate discursive positions and beliefs to unsettle habituated policies, initiatives and theories of change

In Vivo Fluorescent Labeling of Tumor Cells with the HaloTag® Technology

Many fluorescent sensors are currently available for in vitro bio-physiological microscopic imaging. The ability to label cells in living animals with these fluorescent sensors would help translate some of these assays into in vivo applications. To achieve this goal, the first step is to establish a method for selectively labeling target cells with exogenous fluorophores. Here we tested whether the HaloTag® protein tagging system provides specific labeling of xenograft tumors in living animals. After systemic delivery of fluorophore-conjugated ligands, we performed whole animal planar fluorescent imaging to determine uptake in tag-expressing HCT116 xenografts. Our results demonstrate that HaloTag ligands containing red or near-infrared fluorophores have enhanced tumor uptake and are suitable for non-invasive in vivo imaging. Our proof-of-concept results establish feasibility for using HaloTag technology for bio-physiological imaging in living animals

Cultural Resources Investigations for the Oncor Permian Basin – Culberson 138 kV Transmission Line Project, Culberson, Reeves, and Ward Counties, Texas

URS Corporation (URS) was retained by Oncor Electric Delivery Company, LLC (Oncor) to conduct an intensive cultural resources survey of the new Permian Basin - Culberson 138 kilovolt (kV) Double-Circuit Transmission Line Project (Project) right-of-way (ROW) located in Culberson, Reeves, and Ward Counties, Texas. The proposed 70-foot (ft) (21-meter [m]) wide Project ROW encompasses approximately 825 acres and traverses a total of approximately 97 miles of rural lands between the existing Oncor Permian Basin Switching Station, located approximately four miles west of Monahans, Texas in Ward County, to the existing Oncor Culberson Switching Station, located approximately 17 miles south of the Texas/New Mexico state line in Culberson County. This includes 88.7 miles of the original route, along with 8.3 miles of additional segments that were evaluated. Currently, the Project is not subject to federal funding or permitting; therefore, no review under Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act of 1966, as amended, is required. Should the Project subsequently become subject to federal funding or permitting, the cultural resources investigations and site evaluations reported herein will be updated and coordinated with the Texas Historical Commission (THC) as part of fulfilling any Section 106 requirements that may arise at a later date. While the majority of the Project is located on private land, an approximately 6-mile long segment of the Project ROW traverses lands owned by University Lands (UL), which is a political subdivision of the State of Texas. Consequently, this portion of the project falls within the purview of the Antiquities Code of Texas, which requires the THC to review actions that have the potential to disturb prehistoric or historic sites in the public domain. In order to comply with the Antiquities Code, Antiquities Permit No. 7848 was obtained from the THC for the UL-owned lands, and the survey methods for this portion of the Project followed the THC’s archaeological survey standards for Texas. For the remaining areas of the Project, all cultural resources investigations were carried out in conformance with the methodologies outlined in the THC-approved Generic Research Design for Archaeological Surveys of Oncor Electric Delivery Electric Transmission Line Projects in Texas (PBS&J 2008). The cultural resources survey was conducted between December 7, 2015 and May 5, 2016, and consisted of an intensive 100 percent pedestrian survey and shovel testing within the Project ROW. The survey resulted in the identification of 16 newly-recorded sites and one previously recorded site (41WR85). Site forms were completed for each of the 16 newly identified archaeological sites, and trinomials were obtained from the Texas Archeological Research Laboratory. In addition, 16 isolated finds (IFs) were identified; however no site forms were prepared for IFs. All sites within the Project ROW were located in areas of eroded and/or mixed soils, lacked diagnostic artifacts, and were found to exhibit poor integrity context due to prior disturbances. Based on these observations, the portions of these sites within the Project ROW do not meet National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) and State Antiquities Landmark (SAL) eligibility requirements. However, because each of these sites appears to extend beyond the current Project ROW boundary, they have not been evaluated in their entirety and their overall NRHP and SAL eligibility is recommended to be Undetermined. Due to a lack of research potential and integrity, all IFs are recommended as not eligible for NRHP or SAL designation. During the survey, a small bedrock cavity was observed at site 41CU835. Due to safety concerns about the surrounding ground stability, this feature could not be fully investigated. The ground immediate adjacent to the cavity, as well as the upper two feet of the cavity, did not present any indications that it was culturally related, or that the cavity extended much deeper. The entirety of the observed cavity appeared to be too narrow to have served as an effective place of interment. However, based on survey level data, the cultural utilization of this feature could not be entirely ruled out. It was recommended that construction activities avoid this cavity and that site monitoring during construction be conducted, until such time as any cultural association is definitively ruled out, or until it can be confirmed that no construction impacts to the cavity would take place. A geomorphological assessment revealed that selected areas within the Project ROW potentially exhibit the necessary pedologic and geomorphic conditions for the deep burial and preservation of cultural deposits. These areas represent a combined total of 15.5 linear miles (25 kilometers) of Project ROW. In accordance with the Generic Research Design, monitoring was recommended for any transmission pole excavations in the areas that were assessed as exhibiting high geoarchaeological potential. An interim draft report of the foregoing recommendations was submitted to the THC on April 27, 2017. On May 26, 2017, the THC concurred with all interim report recommendations. During preparations for the monitoring effort, URS was notified by Oncor that a majority of the Project had already been constructed, including those areas recommended for monitoring. The only location that had not yet been constructed was the bedrock cavity at site 41CU835. On May 24, 2017, a meeting between Oncor, URS, and the THC resulted in an agreement that monitoring should be undertaken during construction activities near the bedrock cavity at site 41CU835. In addition, it was agreed that spot-checks would be performed within a subset of the previously constructed structures within high geoarchaeological probability areas, including portions of the Project owned by UL. Following completion of these tasks, it was agreed that a comprehensive revised draft report of investigations and findings (current report) would be submitted to the THC for review and project closure. Subsequent investigations at the bedrock cavity at 41CU835 were carried out from July 10-11, 2017. During the site visit, it was established that the cavity is located approximately 30 m to the southeast of the proposed location of monopole structure No. 56/3. Following additional inspections, it was possible to rule out any prehistoric use of this natural feature. The immediate area around the cavity was taped off for safety reasons so that other related construction activities would not adversely impact the cavity or surrounding area. On July 11, 2017, monitoring was carried out for the excavation of monopole structure no. 56/3. Soil stratigraphy was recorded for the total depth of the excavation, which was 20 ft. No cultural materials were identified From August 12-13, 2017, URS archaeologists performed spot-checks for 99 monopoles, including 53 structures within the Project ROW extending approximately 10 kilometers (km) west of the Pecos River in Reeves County; 22 structures within the Project ROW extending approximately 4 km east of the Pecos River in Ward County; and 24 structures within the Project ROW extending approximately 4.5 km across Monument Draw within UL in Ward County. Spot-checking included visual inspection and photo documentation of disturbances, as well as ground surface inspection to identify cultural resources. The Project ROW around each monopole exhibited construction related disturbances from equipment access roads and from drilling operations. No evidence was found that indicated any deeply buried cultural resource sites were impacted from auguring. Within the intervening areas between monopoles, however, a total of two previously unrecorded, low-density historic surface scatters (41RV128 and 41RV129) and three new IFs (H-07, H08, and P-28) were identified and recorded. Both sites were found to exhibit poor integrity due to prior disturbances, and low research potential due to minimal information potential. The portions of these sites within the Project ROW were not found to meet NRHP and SAL eligibility requirements. However, because each of these sites appears to extend beyond of the current Project ROW boundary, they have not been evaluated in their entirety and their overall NRHP and SAL eligibility is recommended to be Undetermined. The three new IFs are recommended as not eligible for NRHP or SAL designation. Based on the final results of the survey, monitoring, and spot-checking investigations, no cultural resources sites eligible for listing in the NRHP or that merit SAL designation within the Project ROW will be affected by the Project, and it is recommended that the project be allowed to proceed. Should the dimensions of the Project ROW change, additional archaeological investigations may be warranted. Should any unmarked prehistoric or historic human remains or burials be encountered at any point during the project, the area of the remains is considered a cemetery under current Texas law. All cemeteries are protected under State law and cannot be disturbed. Section 28.03(f) of the Texas Penal Code provides that intentional damage or destruction inflicted on a human burial site is a state jail felony. If a cemetery is identified in the Project ROW, all work in the immediate area of the discovery must cease and the THC must be notified by contacting the History Programs Division at (512) 463-5853 and the Archeology Division at (512) 463-6096. Following consultation with the THC, a treatment or avoidance plan would be developed and implemented. No artifacts were collected during the survey. Pursuant to 13 TAC 26.17, correspondence, field records, and photographs generated during field investigations have been prepared for permanent curation at the Texas Archeological Research Laboratory, Austin, Texas

The power of purpose – lessons in agility from the Ventilator Challenge

Purpose: COVID-19 has shaken views of what is normal and what is possible, raising questions about conventional norms, ways of working and our understanding of agility. This paper aims to respond to calls for empirical research of supply chain capacities in times of crisis and offer a unique perspective on agile procurement and supply chain management from a case study of the Ventilator Challenge. Design/methodology/approach: A descriptive case study was undertaken, adopting an inductive approach. Interviews were conducted with the major stakeholders tasked with the design, sourcing and assembly of ventilators. Findings: Findings are delivered across four key areas: context; procurement and supply chain management; technology and culture; and environment. Key challenges and enablers are discussed, highlighting the critical roles of trust, empowerment and enabling technologies in the construction of an entirely new ventilator supply chain, from scratch, in five weeks. Originality/value: This paper delivers contributions for both academic research and practice. The case study offers rich new insights relating to procurement in times of crisis, contributing to efforts to advance beyond outdated approaches for resilience in literature. Practical contributions arise in highlighting the significance of adapted sourcing and recruitment, technology, collaboration, people and power of purpose in enabling agility and achieving the impossible

The lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community online: discussions of bullying and self-disclosure in YouTube videos

Computer-mediated communication has become a popular platform for identity construction and experimentation as well as social interaction for those who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender (LGBT). The creation of user-generated videos has allowed content creators to share experiences on LGBT topics. With bullying becoming more common amongst LGBT youth, it is important to obtain a greater understanding of this phenomenon. In our study, we report on the analysis of 151 YouTube videos which were identified as having LGBT- and bullying-related content. The analysis reveals how content creators openly disclose personal information about themselves and their experiences in a non-anonymous rhetoric with an unknown public. These disclosures could indicate a desire to seek friendship, support and provide empathy

A multi-year record of topographic changes on debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada

Repeat observations of four debris-flow fans in south-western British Columbia, Canada, were made using a UAV-lidar system. Detailed measurements of deposit thicknesses and volumes have been generated from the data. We present channel measurements and characteristics for one of the sites to demonstrate the utility of the repeat lidar scanning technique to provide insights into where avulsions occur during debris flows. Through continued monitoring, we plan to obtain greater detail on a wider variety of events and the characteristics of avulsion locations

New fat free mass - fat mass model for use in physiological energy balance equations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Forbes equation relating fat-free mass (<it>FFM</it>) to fat mass (<it>FM</it>) has been used to predict longitudinal changes in <it>FFM </it>during weight change but has important limitations when paired with a one dimensional energy balance differential equation. Direct use of the Forbes model within a one dimensional energy balance differential equation requires calibration of a translate parameter for the specific population under study. Comparison of translates to a representative sample of the US population indicate that this parameter is a reflection of age, height, race and gender effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We developed a class of fourth order polynomial equations relating <it>FFM </it>to <it>FM </it>that consider age, height, race and gender as covariates eliminating the need to calibrate a parameter to baseline subject data while providing meaningful individual estimates of <it>FFM</it>. Moreover, the intercepts of these polynomial equations are nonnegative and are consistent with observations of very low <it>FM </it>measured during a severe Somali famine. The models preserve the predictive power of the Forbes model for changes in body composition when compared to results from several longitudinal weight change studies.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The newly developed <it>FFM</it>-<it>FM </it>models provide new opportunities to compare individuals undergoing weight change to subjects in energy balance, analyze body composition for individual parameters, and predict body composition during weight change when pairing with energy balance differential equations.</p