Reliability of Relative Predictions in Population Viability Analysis

Despite numerous claims that population viability analysis (PVA) makes reliable predictions of the relative risks of extinction, there is little evidence to support this assertion. To assess the veracity of the claim, we investigated uncertainty in the relative predictions of a PVA model with simulation experiments. We used a stochastic Ricker model to investigate the reliability of predicted changes in risks of decline in response to changes in parameters, the reliability of ranking species in terms of their relative threat, and the reliability of choosing the better of two management decisions. The predicted changes in risks of decline within 100 years were more reliable than absolute predictions. We made useful predictions of relative risks using only 10 years of data. Across 160 different parameter combinations, the rank correlation between the true risks of extinction within 100 years and predicted risks was 0.59 with 10 years of data, increasing to 0.89 with 100 years of data. We identified the better of two management strategies 67 74% of the time using 10 years of data, increasing to 92 93% of the time with 100 years of data. Our results demonstrate that, despite considerable uncertainty in the predicted risks of decline, PVA may reliably contribute to the management of threatened species

High eccentricity planets from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search

We report Doppler measurements of the stars HD187085 and HD20782 which indicate two high eccentricity low-mass companions to the stars. We find HD187085 has a Jupiter-mass companion with a ~1000d orbit. Our formal `best fit' solution suggests an eccentricity of 0.47, however, it does not sample the periastron passage of the companion and we find that orbital solutions with eccentricities between 0.1 and 0.8 give only slightly poorer fits (based on RMS and chi^2) and are thus plausible. Observations made during periastron passage in 2007 June should allow for the reliable determination of the orbital eccentricity for the companion to HD187085. Our dataset for HD20782 does sample periastron and so the orbit for its companion can be more reliably determined. We find the companion to HD20782 has M sin i=1.77+/-0.22M_JUP, an orbital period of 595.86+/-0.03d and an orbit with an eccentricity of 0.92+/-0.03. The detection of such high-eccentricity (and relatively low velocity amplitude) exoplanets appears to be facilitated by the long-term precision of the Anglo-Australian Planet Search. Looking at exoplanet detections as a whole, we find that those with higher eccentricity seem to have relatively higher velocity amplitudes indicating higher mass planets and/or an observational bias against the detection of high eccentricity systems.Comment: to appear in MNRA

Participant Choice towards Receiving Potential Additional Findings in an Australian Nephrology Research Genomics Study

The choices of participants in nephrology research genomics studies about receiving additional findings (AFs) are unclear as are participant factors that might influence those choices. Methods: Participant choices and factors potentially impacting decisions about AFs were examined in an Australian study applying research genomic testing following uninformative diagnostic genetic testing for suspected monogenic kidney disease. Results: 93% of participants (195/210) chose to receive potential AFs. There were no statistically significant differences between those consenting to receive AFs or not in terms of gender (p = 0.97), median age (p = 0.56), being personally affected by the inherited kidney disease of interest (p = 0.38), or by the inheritance pattern (p = 0.12–0.19). Participants were more likely to choose not to receive AFs if the family proband presented in adulthood (p = 0.01), if there was family history of another genetic disorder (p = 0.01), and where the consent process was undertaken by an adult nephrologist (p = 0.01). Conclusion: The majority of participants in this nephrology research genomics study chose to receive potential AFs. Younger age of the family proband, family history of an alternate genetic disorder, and consenting by some multidisciplinary team members might impact upon participant choices

Prospective Study in a Porcine Model of Sarcoptes scabiei Indicates the Association of Th2 and Th17 Pathways with the Clinical Severity of Scabies

BackgroundUnderstanding of scabies immunopathology has been hampered by the inability to undertake longitudinal studies in humans. Pigs are a useful animal model for scabies, and show clinical and immunologic changes similar to those in humans. Crusted scabies can be readily established in pigs by treatment with the glucocorticoid dexamethasone (Dex).Methodology/ Principal FindingsProspective study of 24 pigs in four groups: a) Scabies+/Dex+, b) Scabies+/Dex-, c) Scabies-/Dex+ and d) Scabies-/Dex-. Clinical symptoms were monitored. Histological profiling and transcriptional analysis of skin biopsies was undertaken to compare changes in cell infiltrates and representative cytokines. A range of clinical responses to Sarcoptes scabiei were observed in Dex treated and non-immunosuppressed pigs. An association was confirmed between disease severity and transcription of the Th2 cytokines IL-4 and IL-13, and up-regulation of the Th17 cytokines IL-17 and IL-23 in pigs with crusted scabies. Immunohistochemistry revealed marked infiltration of lymphocytes and mast cells, and strong staining for IL-17.Conclusions/ SignificanceWhile an allergic Th2 type response to scabies has been previously described, these results suggest that IL-17 related pathways may also contribute to immunopathology of crusted scabies. This may lead to new strategies to protect vulnerable subjects from contracting recurrent crusted scabies

Factors associated with the performance and cost-effectiveness of using lymphatic filariasis transmission assessment surveys for monitoring soil-transmitted helminths: a case study in Kenya.

Transmission assessment surveys (TAS) for lymphatic filariasis have been proposed as a platform to assess the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) on soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). This study used computer simulation and field data from pre- and post-MDA settings across Kenya to evaluate the performance and cost-effectiveness of the TAS design for STH assessment compared with alternative survey designs. Variations in the TAS design and different sample sizes and diagnostic methods were also evaluated. The district-level TAS design correctly classified more districts compared with standard STH designs in pre-MDA settings. Aggregating districts into larger evaluation units in a TAS design decreased performance, whereas age group sampled and sample size had minimal impact. The low diagnostic sensitivity of Kato-Katz and mini-FLOTAC methods was found to increase misclassification. We recommend using a district-level TAS among children 8-10 years of age to assess STH but suggest that key consideration is given to evaluation unit size

On the Double Planet System Around HD 83443

The Geneva group has reported two Saturn-mass planets orbiting HD 83443 (K0V) with periods of 2.98 and 29.8 d. The two planets have raised interest in their dynamics because of the possible 10:1 orbital resonance and the strong gravitational interactions. We report precise Doppler measurements of HD 83443 obtained with the Keck/HIRES and the AAT/UCLES spectrometers. These measurements strongly confirm the inner planet with period of 2.985 d, with orbital parameters in very good agreement with those of the Geneva group. However these Doppler measurements show no evidence of the outer planet, at thresholds of 1/4 (3 m/s) of the reported velocity amplitude of 13.8 m/s. Thus, the existence of the outer planet is in question. Indeed, the current Doppler measurements reveal no evidence of any second planet with periods less than a year.Comment: 26 pages incl. 3 tables and 8 figures; uses AASTE

Two extra-solar planets from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search

We report the detection of two new extra-solar planets from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search around the stars HD142 and HD23079. The planet orbiting HD142 has an orbital period of just under one year, while that orbiting HD23079 has a period of just under two years. HD142 falls into the class of "eccentric" gas giants. HD23079 lies in the recently uncovered class of "epsilon Ret-like" planets - extra-solar gas giant planets with near-circular orbits outside 0.1 a.u. The recent discovery of several more members of this class provides new impetus for the extension of existing planet searches to longer periods, in the search for Jupiter-like planets in Jupiter-like orbits.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures and 3 tables include

Australia and New Zealand renal gene panel testing in routine clinical practice of 542 families

Genetic testing in nephrology clinical practice has moved rapidly from a rare specialized test to routine practice both in pediatric and adult nephrology. However, clear information pertaining to the likely outcome of testing is still missing. Here we describe the experience of the accredited Australia and New Zealand Renal Gene Panels clinical service, reporting on sequencing for 552 individuals from 542 families with suspected kidney disease in Australia and New Zealand. An increasing number of referrals have been processed since service inception with an overall diagnostic rate of 35%. The likelihood of identifying a causative variant varies according to both age at referral and gene panel. Although results from high throughput genetic testing have been primarily for diagnostic purposes, they will increasingly play an important role in directing treatment, genetic counseling, and family planning

PEXO : a global modeling framework for nanosecond timing, microsecond astrometry, and μm/s radial velocities

54 pages, 2 tables, 19 figures, accepted for publication in ApJS, PEXO is available at https://github.com/phillippro/pexoThe ability to make independent detections of the signatures of exoplanets with complementary telescopes and instruments brings a new potential for robust identification of exoplanets and precision characterization. We introduce PEXO, a package for Precise EXOplanetology to facilitate the efficient modeling of timing, astrometry, and radial velocity data, which will benefit not only exoplanet science but also various astrophysical studies in general. PEXO is general enough to account for binary motion and stellar reflex motions induced by planetary companions and is precise enough to treat various relativistic effects both in the solar system and in the target system. We also model the post-Newtonian barycentric motion for future tests of general relativity in extrasolar systems. We benchmark PEXO with the pulsar timing package TEMPO2 and find that PEXO produces numerically similar results with timing precision of about 1 ns, space-based astrometry to a precision of 1{\mu}as, and radial velocity of 1 {\mu}m/s and improves on TEMPO2 for decade-long timing data of nearby targets, due to its consideration of third-order terms of Roemer delay. PEXO is able to avoid the bias introduced by decoupling the target system and the solar system and to account for the atmospheric effects which set a practical limit for ground-based radial velocities close to 1 cm/s. Considering the various caveats in barycentric correction and ancillary data required to realize cm/s modeling, we recommend the preservation of original observational data. The PEXO modeling package is available at GitHub (https://github.com/phillippro/pexo).Peer reviewe

The Milky Way Tomography with SDSS: III. Stellar Kinematics

We study Milky Way kinematics using a sample of 18.8 million main-sequence stars with r<20 and proper-motion measurements derived from SDSS and POSS astrometry, including ~170,000 stars with radial-velocity measurements from the SDSS spectroscopic survey. Distances to stars are determined using a photometric parallax relation, covering a distance range from ~100 pc to 10 kpc over a quarter of the sky at high Galactic latitudes (|b|>20 degrees). We find that in the region defined by 1 kpc <Z< 5 kpc and 3 kpc <R< 13 kpc, the rotational velocity for disk stars smoothly decreases, and all three components of the velocity dispersion increase, with distance from the Galactic plane. In contrast, the velocity ellipsoid for halo stars is aligned with a spherical coordinate system and appears to be spatially invariant within the probed volume. The velocity distribution of nearby ($Z<1$ kpc) K/M stars is complex, and cannot be described by a standard Schwarzschild ellipsoid. For stars in a distance-limited subsample of stars (<100 pc), we detect a multimodal velocity distribution consistent with that seen by HIPPARCOS. This strong non-Gaussianity significantly affects the measurements of the velocity ellipsoid tilt and vertex deviation when using the Schwarzschild approximation. We develop and test a simple descriptive model for the overall kinematic behavior that captures these features over most of the probed volume, and can be used to search for substructure in kinematic and metallicity space. We use this model to predict further improvements in kinematic mapping of the Galaxy expected from Gaia and LSST.Comment: 90 pages, 26 figures, submitted to Ap