An experimental investigation of asset market bubbles and of the effects of regret and the illusion of control in decision making

Abstract This thesis extends existing research in two separate areas of experimental economics and contains three distinct experimental studies. The first two chapters are concerned with the bubbles that have long been observed in experimental asset markets and are inspired partially by real bubbles observed in the housing market. The first chapter reports an experiment designed to capture evidence of herding behaviour and the effects of regret on bubbles. The second chapter examines the impact of speculation on prices and considers how the nature of the fundamental value of the asset traded may be a possible cause of asset market bubbles. A single, lumpy asset is traded as a closer approximation to a house purchase than the multi-unit type of asset usually traded in experimental markets and the fundamental value is designed to rise rather than fall to better capture the usual direction of housing market fundamentals. In chapter one it is found that herding tendencies and fear of regret may have some impact upon bubbles and evidence of learning is also present. In chapter 2, the impacts of speculation and an increasing fundamental value do not provide the hypothesised outcomes, but bubbles are perhaps prevented by the quality of the information given to subjects. The third chapter contains an experimental exploration of the impact of regret and of illusion of control on decision making in an experimental setting using national lottery scratch cards to elicit the emotion of regret and the selection of coloured envelopes to provoke the illusion of control in subjects. It finds support for the notion that regret, particularly feedback conditional regret, impacts on decisions and specifically on the willingness to part with the card for a cash sum

Scaling impact in education for transformative change: Practical recommendations from the Real-Time Scaling Labs

Transforming education systems is a complex process that requires understanding the strengths and weaknesses of the educational ecosystem and exploring new approaches, ideas, and initiatives to improve quality learning opportunities for children and youth. However, research shows it is not enough to simply identify effective education initiatives and expand them to more people. It takes a combination of technical expertise, understanding of local contexts, political strategy, collaborative partnership, flexible adaptation, and shared vision to scale and sustain the impact of education initiatives. Scaling cannot occur through one actor alone; it requires concerted and collaborative action by multiple actors at all levels of the education system.Too often, the work of scaling is not captured by typical monitoring and evaluation or research studies and lessons learned are not systematically documented. In response, in 2018 the Center for Universal Education (CUE) at Brookings launched a series of Real-time Scaling Labs (RTSLs) to generate more evidence and provide practical recommendations on how to expand, deepen, and sustain the impact of education initiatives leading to transformative change in education systems, especially for the most disadvantaged children and youth.The purpose of this report is to look across all six of the RTSL cases to analyze common themes, insights, and lessons learned about the process of scaling as well as interesting divergences, and to offer considerations for others looking to learn from or build on this work. This report is intended for governments, education implementers, donors, and researchers who are interested in collaborative approaches to scaling impact in education

Probing the Transition to Dataset-Level Privacy in ML Models Using an Output-Specific and Data-Resolved Privacy Profile

Differential privacy (DP) is the prevailing technique for protecting user data in machine learning models. However, deficits to this framework include a lack of clarity for selecting the privacy budget $\epsilon$ and a lack of quantification for the privacy leakage for a particular data row by a particular trained model. We make progress toward these limitations and a new perspective by which to visualize DP results by studying a privacy metric that quantifies the extent to which a model trained on a dataset using a DP mechanism is ``covered" by each of the distributions resulting from training on neighboring datasets. We connect this coverage metric to what has been established in the literature and use it to rank the privacy of individual samples from the training set in what we call a privacy profile. We additionally show that the privacy profile can be used to probe an observed transition to indistinguishability that takes place in the neighboring distributions as $\epsilon$ decreases, which we suggest is a tool that can enable the selection of $\epsilon$ by the ML practitioner wishing to make use of DP.Comment: Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. PA #:AFRL-2022-363

Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture mitigates the effects of ocean acidification: Seaweeds raise system pH and improve growth of juvenile abalone

Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) has the potential to enhance growth, reduce nutrient loads, and mitigate environmental conditions compared to traditional single-species culture techniques. The goal of this project was to develop a land-based system for the integrated culture of seaweeds and shellfish, to test the efficacy of integrated versus non-integrated designs, and to assess the potential for IMTA to mitigate the effects of climate change from ocean acidification on shellfish growth and physiology. We utilized the red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) and the red seaweed dulse (Devaleraea mollis) as our study species and designed integrated tanks at three different recirculation rates (0%, 30%, and 65% recirculation per hour) to test how an integrated design would affect growth rates of the abalone and seaweeds, modify nutrient levels, and change water chemistry. We specifically hypothesized that IMTA designs would raise seawater pH to benefit calcifying species. Our results indicated that juvenile abalone grew significantly faster in weight (22% increase) and shell area (11% increase) in 6 months in tanks with the highest recirculation rates (65%). The 65% recirculation treatment also exhibited a significant increase in mean seawater pH (0.2 pH units higher) due to the biological activity of the seaweed in the connected tanks. We found a significant positive relationship between the mean pH of seawater in the tanks and juvenile abalone growth rates across all treatments. There were no significant differences in the growth of dulse among treatments, but dulse growth did vary seasonally. Seawater phosphate and nitrate concentrations were depleted in the highest recirculation rate treatment, but ammonium concentrations were elevated, likely due to the abalone effluent. Overall, our results indicate that there are benefits to IMTA culture of seaweeds and abalone in terms of improving growth in land-based systems, which will reduce the time to market and buffer commercial abalone operations against the effects of ocean acidification during vulnerable early life stages

Procedures of recruiting, obtaining informed consent, and compensating research participants in Qatar: findings from a qualitative investigation

Abstract Background Very few researchers have reported on procedures of recruiting, obtaining informed consent, and compensating participants in health research in the Arabian Gulf Region. Empirical research can inform the debate about whether to adjust these procedures for culturally diverse settings. Our objective was to delineate procedures related to recruiting, obtaining informed consent, and compensating health research participants in the extremely high-density multicultural setting of Qatar. Methods During a multistage mixed methods project, field observations and qualitative interviews were conducted in a general medicine clinic of a major medical center in Qatar. Participants were chosen based on gender, age, literacy, and preferred language, i.e., Arabic, English, Hindi and Urdu. Qualitative analysis identified themes about recruitment, informed consent, compensation, and other research procedures. Results A total of 153 individuals were approached and 84 enrolled; the latter showed a diverse age range (18 to 75 years); varied language representation: Arabic (n = 24), English (n = 20), Hindi (n = 20), and Urdu (n = 20); and balanced gender distribution: women (n = 43) and men (n = 41). Primary reasons for 30 declinations included concern about interview length and recording. The study achieved a 74% participation rate. Qualitative analytics revealed key themes about hesitation to participate, decisions about participation with family members as well as discussions with them as “incidental research participants”, the informed consent process, privacy and gender rules of the interview environment, reactions to member checking and compensation, and motivation for participating. Vulnerability emerged as a recurring issue throughout the process among a minority of participants. Conclusions This study from Qatar is the first to provide empirical data on recruitment, informed consent, compensation and other research procedures in a general adult population in the Middle East and Arabian Gulf. This investigation illustrates how potential research participants perceive research participation. Fundamentally, Western ethical research principles were applicable, but required flexibility and culturally informed adaptations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109514/1/12910_2013_Article_251.pd

Fostering Belonging and Civic Identity: Perspectives from Newcomer and Refugee Students in Arizona and New York

This policy report focuses on high-school-aged newcomer immigrant and resettled refugee students and explores their experiences across four schools in Arizona and New York. Using mixed research methods, the report examines the ways in which these students develop a sense of belonging and civic identity, and the role of schools in influencing student growth and development. The report presents findings on diversity and inclusion, student belonging and well-being, civic identity, rights, and civic engagement, and school and community participation, as well as policy recommendations for key stakeholders

The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

<i>Vejamen</i> de Alfonso de Batres para la Academia de 1638 (Manuscrito inédito). Estudio y edición crítica

During February 1638 the <i>Fiestas de Carnestolendas</i> were celebrated at the Buen Retiro Palace, Madrid. Among the programmed activities, a literary gathering was held, open to numerous poets and courtiers. From this gathering three <i>vejamenes</i> have been preserved: those of Alfonso de Batres, Antonio Coello and Francisco de Rojas Zorrilla. In this paper we analyze and annotate the <i>vejamen</i> that Batres read before His Majesties in the Royal Salon of the Retiro Palace on February 11, 1638.<br><br>Durante el mes de febrero de 1638 se celebraron en el palacio del Buen Retiro las fiestas de Carnestolendas. Entre las actividades programadas, se realizó una academia literaria en la que participaron poetas y cortesanos. De ella se conservan tres vejámenes: el de Alfonso de Batres, el de Antonio Coello y el de Francisco de Rojas Zorrilla. En el presente artículo se analiza y edita críticamente el vejamen que Batres defendió ante sus majestades en el Salón Real del Retiro el 11 de febrero de 1638

Detection and quantification of antibody to SARS CoV 2 receptor binding domain provides enhanced sensitivity, specificity and utility

Accurate and sensitive detection of antibody to SARS-CoV-2 remains an essential component of the pandemic response. Measuring antibody that predicts neutralising activity and the vaccine response is an absolute requirement for laboratory-based confirmatory and reference activity.The viral receptor binding domain (RBD) constitutes the prime target antigen for neutralising antibody. A double antigen binding assay (DABA), providing the most sensitive format has been exploited in a novel hybrid manner employing a solid-phase S1 preferentially presenting RBD, coupled with a labelled RBD conjugate, used in a two-step sequential assay for detection and measurement of antibody to RBD (anti-RBD).This class and species neutral assay showed a specificity of 100 % on 825 pre COVID-19 samples and a potential sensitivity of 99.6 % on 276 recovery samples, predicting quantitatively the presence of neutralising antibody determined by pseudo-type neutralization and by plaque reduction. Anti-RBD is also measurable in ferrets immunised with ChadOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine and in humans immunised with both AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. This assay detects anti-RBD at presentation with illness, demonstrates its elevation with disease severity, its sequel to asymptomatic infection and its persistence after the loss of antibody to the nucleoprotein (anti-NP). It also provides serological confirmation of prior infection and offers a secure measure for seroprevalence and studies of vaccine immunisation in human and animal populations.The hybrid DABA also displays the attributes necessary for the detection and quantification of anti-RBD to be used in clinical practice. An absence of detectable anti-RBD by this assay predicates the need for passive immune prophylaxis in at-risk patients

Aging and Visual Counting

Much previous work on how normal aging affects visual enumeration has been focused on the response time required to enumerate, with unlimited stimulus duration. There is a fundamental question, not yet addressed, of how many visual items the aging visual system can enumerate in a "single glance", without the confounding influence of eye movements.We recruited 104 observers with normal vision across the age span (age 21-85). They were briefly (200 ms) presented with a number of well- separated black dots against a gray background on a monitor screen, and were asked to judge the number of dots. By limiting the stimulus presentation time, we can determine the maximum number of visual items an observer can correctly enumerate at a criterion level of performance (counting threshold, defined as the number of visual items at which ≈63% correct rate on a psychometric curve), without confounding by eye movements. Our findings reveal a 30% decrease in the mean counting threshold of the oldest group (age 61-85: ∼5 dots) when compared with the youngest groups (age 21-40: 7 dots). Surprisingly, despite decreased counting threshold, on average counting accuracy function (defined as the mean number of dots reported for each number tested) is largely unaffected by age, reflecting that the threshold loss can be primarily attributed to increased random errors. We further expanded this interesting finding to show that both young and old adults tend to over-count small numbers, but older observers over-count more.Here we show that age reduces the ability to correctly enumerate in a glance, but the accuracy (veridicality), on average, remains unchanged with advancing age. Control experiments indicate that the degraded performance cannot be explained by optical, retinal or other perceptual factors, but is cortical in origin