Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California\u27s Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios

Using a Gridded Global Dataset to Characterize Regional Hydroclimate in Central Chile

Central Chile is facing dramatic projections of climate change, with a consensus for declining precipitation, negatively affecting hydropower generation and irrigated agriculture. Rising from sea level to 6000 m within a distance of 200 km, precipitation characterization is difficult because of a lack of long-term observations, especially at higher elevations. For understanding current mean and extreme conditions and recent hydroclimatological change, as well as to provide a baseline for downscaling climate model projections, a temporally and spatially complete dataset of daily meteorology is essential. The authors use a gridded global daily meteorological dataset at 0.25° resolution for the period 1948–2008, adjusted by monthly precipitation observations interpolated to the same grid using a cokriging method with elevation as a covariate. For validation, daily statistics of the adjusted gridded precipitation are compared to station observations. For further validation, a hydrology model is driven with the gridded 0.25° meteorology and streamflow statistics are compared with observed flow. The high elevation precipitation is validated by comparing the simulated snow extent to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images. Results show that the daily meteorology with the adjusted precipitation can accurately capture the statistical properties of extreme events as well as the sequence of wet and dry events, with hydrological model results displaying reasonable agreement with observed streamflow and snow extent. This demonstrates the successful use of a global gridded data product in a relatively data-sparse region to capture hydroclimatological characteristics and extremes

Quantum privacy and quantum coherence

We derive a simple relation between a quantum channel's capacity to convey coherent (quantum) information and its usefulness for quantum cryptography.Comment: 6 pages RevTex; two short comments added 7 October 199

Conjugacy and Equivalence of Weighted Automata and Functional Transducers

International audienceWe show that two equivalent K-automata are conjugate to a third one, when K is equal to B, N, Z, or any (skew) ¯eld and that the same holds true for functional tranducers as well

Infant cortex responds to other humans from shortly after birth

A significant feature of the adult human brain is its ability to selectively process information about conspecifics. Much debate has centred on whether this specialization is primarily a result of phylogenetic adaptation, or whether the brain acquires expertise in processing social stimuli as a result of its being born into an intensely social environment. Here we study the haemodynamic response in cortical areas of newborns (1–5 days old) while they passively viewed dynamic human or mechanical action videos. We observed activation selective to a dynamic face stimulus over bilateral posterior temporal cortex, but no activation in response to a moving human arm. This selective activation to the social stimulus correlated with age in hours over the first few days post partum. Thus, even very limited experience of face-to-face interaction with other humans may be sufficient to elicit social stimulus activation of relevant cortical regions

The Type Ic SN 2007gr: a census of the ejecta from late-time optical-infrared spectra

Nebular spectra of Supernovae (SNe) offer an unimpeded view of the inner region of the ejecta, where most nucleosynthesis takes place. Optical spectra cover most, but not all of the emitting elements, and therefore offer only a partial view of the products of the explosion. Simultaneous optical-infrared spectra, on the other hand, contain emission lines of all important elements, from C and O through to the Intermediate Mass Elements (IME) Mg, Si, S, Ca, and to Fe and Ni. In particular, Si and S are best seen in the IR. The availability of IR data makes it possible to explore in greater detail the results of the explosion. SN\,2007gr is the first Type Ic SN for which such data are available. Modelling the spectra with a NLTE code reveals that the inner ejecta contain \sim 1 \Msun of material within a velocity of $\approx 4500$\,\kms. %The spectrum is powered by \Nifs, in an amount (0.076 \Msun) consistent with that %derived from the early-time data. The same mass of \Nifs\ derived from the light curve peak (0.076 \Msun) was used to power the spectrum, yielding consistent results. Oxygen is the dominant element, contributing \sim 0.8 \Msun. The C/O ratio is $< 0.2$. IME account for \sim 0.1 \Msun. This confirms that SN\,2007gr was the explosion of a low-mass CO core, probably the result of a star of main-sequence mass \approx 15 \Msun. The ratios of the \CaII\ lines, and of those of \FeII, are sensitive to the assumed degree of clumping. In particular, the optical lines of [\FeII] become stronger, relative to the IR lines, for higher degrees of clumping

Landslide characterization using P- and S-wave seismic refraction tomography: the importance of elastic moduli

In the broad spectrum of natural hazards, landslides in particular are capable of changing the landscape and causing significant human and economic losses. Detailed site investigations form an important component in the landslide risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction process. These investigations usually rely on surface ob- servations, discrete sampling of the subsurface, and laboratory testing to examine properties that are deemed representative of entire slopes. Often this requires extensive interpolations and results in large uncertainties. To compliment and extend these approaches, we present a study from an active landslide in a Lias Group clay slope, North Yorkshire, UK, examining combined P- and S-wave seismic refraction tomography (SRT) as a means of providing subsurface volumetric imaging of geotechnical proxies. The distributions of seismic wave velocities determined fromSRT at the study site indicated zones with higher porosity and fissure density that are interpreted to represent the extent and depth of mass movements and weathered bedrock zones. Distinguishing the lithological units was facilitated by deriving the Poisson's ratio fromthe SRT data as saturated clay and partially saturated sandy silts showed distinctively different Poisson's ra- tios. Shear and Young's moduli derived from the SRT data revealed the weak nature of the materials in active parts of the landslide (i.e. 25 kPa and 100 kPa respectively). The SRT results are consistent with intrusive (i.e. cone penetration tests), laboratory, and additional geoelectrical data from this site. This study shows that SRT forms a cost-effective method that can significantly reduce uncertainties in the conceptual ground model of geotechnical and hydrological conditions that govern landslide dynamics

17-jähriger Mann mit akuten Bauchschmerzen, Hämatochezie und Exanthem

Zusammenfassung: Ein 17-jähriger Patient stellte sich mit kolikartigen abdominellen Schmerzen und Diarrhö vor. Als weitere Symptome traten Petechien, Arthralgien und eine Hämatochezie auf. Sonographisch bestand eine auffällige Ileozökalregion. Endoskopisch fand sich eine Ileitis terminalis, und histologisch zeigte sich hier eine leukozytoklastische Vaskulitis mit IgA-Ablagerungen. Die Kasuistik zeigt exemplarisch die mehrzeitige klinische Manifestation der Purpura Schönlein-Henoch und deren Verlau

Locking of accessible information and implications for the security of quantum cryptography

The unconditional security of a quantum key distribution protocol is often defined in terms of the accessible information, that is, the maximum mutual information between the distributed key S and the outcome of an optimal measurement on the adversary's (quantum) system. We show that, even if this quantity is small, certain parts of the key S might still be completely insecure when S is used in applications, such as for one-time pad encryption. This flaw is due to a locking property of the accessible information: one additional (physical) bit of information might increase the accessible information by more than one bit.Comment: 5 pages; minor change

Holographic Structure Transfer from Dichromated Gelatin Layers to a Polymethylmethacrylate Substrate

It is shown that the formation of a holographic structure on the polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) surface is based on the use of the destructive effect of short-wave UV radiation with a wavelength less than 270 nm through windows previously formed in a thin layer of dichromated gelatin (DCG) covering the substrate. The optimization of the PMMA surface treatment by isopropanol and methylisobutyl ketone (MIBK) developers was made, which allowed creating on the PMMA substrates relief-phase holographic gratings with the high diffraction efficiency (DE) of about 25% and maximum depth of the surface relief of the order of 1 μm. Keywords: holographic gratings, surface relief, UV radiation, dichromated gelatin, polymethylmethacrylate, methylisobutyl ketone (MIBK)