Depictions of deception: A corpus-based analysis of five Shakespearean characters

Drawing on the Enhanced Shakespearean Corpus: First Folio Plus and using corpus-based methods, this article explores, quantitatively and qualitatively, Shakespeare’s depictions of five deceptive characters (Aaron, Tamora, Iago, Lady Macbeth and Falstaff). Our analysis adopts three strands: firstly, statistical keywords relating to each character are examined to determine what this tells us about their natures more generally. Secondly, the wordlists produced for each of the five characters are drawn upon to determine the extent to which they make use of linguistic features that have been correlated with, or linked to, acts of deliberate deception in real-world contexts. Thirdly, we make use of the results identified during the two aforementioned strands by using them to identify particular (sequences of) turns that are worthy of more detailed analysis. Here, we are primarily interested in (a) whether these keywords/deceptive indicators cluster or co-occur and (b) whether these interactions are the same as those identified by other scholars exploring depictions of deception in Shakespeare from a literary perspective. The findings indicate that deception-related features are indeed used collectively/in close proximity, by Shakespeare, at points where a character speaks to other characters disingenuously. They also suggest that Shakespeare’s deceptive depictions do change stylistically, from character to character, in line with those characters’ different characterisations and situations, that Shakespeare draws on atypical language features – such as self-oriented references – when it comes to some of his depictions of deception and that Shakespeare uses these various stylistic features to achieve a range of dramatic effect(s)

Forecasting emergency medical service call arrival rates

We introduce a new method for forecasting emergency call arrival rates that combines integer-valued time series models with a dynamic latent factor structure. Covariate information is captured via simple constraints on the factor loadings. We directly model the count-valued arrivals per hour, rather than using an artificial assumption of normality. This is crucial for the emergency medical service context, in which the volume of calls may be very low. Smoothing splines are used in estimating the factor levels and loadings to improve long-term forecasts. We impose time series structure at the hourly level, rather than at the daily level, capturing the fine-scale dependence in addition to the long-term structure. Our analysis considers all emergency priority calls received by Toronto EMS between January 2007 and December 2008 for which an ambulance was dispatched. Empirical results demonstrate significantly reduced error in forecasting call arrival volume. To quantify the impact of reduced forecast errors, we design a queueing model simulation that approximates the dynamics of an ambulance system. The results show better performance as the forecasting method improves. This notion of quantifying the operational impact of improved statistical procedures may be of independent interest.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS442 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Telomere length dynamics in human memory T cells specific for viruses causing acute or latent infections

BACKGROUND: Declining telomere length (TL) is associated with T cell senescence. While TL in naive and memory T cells declines with increasing age, there is limited data on TL dynamics in virus-specific memory CD4+ T cells in healthy adults. We combined BrdU-labeling of virus-stimulated T cells followed with flow cytometry-fluorescent in situ hybridization for TL determination. We analyzed TL in T cells specific for several virus infections: non-recurring acute (vaccinia virus, VACV), recurring-acute (influenza A virus, IAV), and reactivating viruses (varicella-zoster virus, VZV, and cytomegalovirus, CMV) in 10 healthy subjects. Additionally, five subjects provided multiple blood samples separated by up to 10 years. RESULTS: VACV- and CMV-specific T cells had longer average TL than IAV-specific CD4+ T cells. Although most virus-specific cells were CD45RA-, we observed a minor population of BrdU+ CD45RA+ T cells characterized by long telomeres. Longitudinal analysis demonstrated a slow decline in average TL in virus-specific T cells. However, in one subject, VZV reactivation led to an increase in average TL in VZV-specific memory T cells, suggesting a conversion of longer TL cells from the naive T cell repertoire. CONCLUSIONS: TLs in memory CD4+ T cells in otherwise healthy adults are heterogeneous and follow distinct virus-specific kinetics. These findings suggests that the distribution of TL and the creation and maintenance of long TL memory T cells could be important for the persistence of long-lived T cell memory

Modelling care quality for patients after a transient ischaemic attack within the US Veterans Health Administration

Objective Timely preventive care can substantially reduce risk of recurrent vascular events or death after a transient ischaemic attack (TIA). Our objective was to understand patient and facility factors influencing preventive care quality for patients with TIA in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Methods We analysed administrative data from a retrospective cohort of 3052 patients with TIA cared for in the emergency department (ED) or inpatient setting in 110 VHA facilities from October 2010 to September 2011. A composite quality indicator (QI score) pass rate was constructed from four process-related quality measures—carotid imaging, brain imaging, high or moderate potency statin and antithrombotic medication, associated with the ED visit or inpatient admission after the TIA. We tested a multilevel structural equation model where facility and patient characteristics, inpatient admission, and neurological consultation were predictors of the resident’s composite QI score. Results Presenting with a speech deficit and higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were positively related to inpatient admission. Being admitted increased the likelihood of neurology consultation, whereas history of dementia, weekend arrival and a higher CCI score made neurological consultation less likely. Speech deficit, higher CCI, inpatient admission and neurological consultation had direct positive effects on the composite quality score. Patients in facilities with fewer full-time equivalent neurology staff were less likely to be admitted or to have a neurology consultation. Facilities having greater organisational complexity and with a VHA stroke centre designation were more likely to provide a neurology consultation. Conclusions Better TIA preventive care could be achieved through increased inpatient admissions, or through enhanced neurology and other care resources in the ED and during follow-up care

Processes of Care Associated With Risk of Mortality and Recurrent Stroke Among Patients With Transient Ischemic Attack and Nonsevere Ischemic Stroke

Importance: Early evaluation and management of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) and nonsevere ischemic stroke improves outcomes. Objective: To identify processes of care associated with reduced risk of death or recurrent stroke among patients with TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included all patients with TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke at Department of Veterans Affairs emergency department or inpatient settings from October 2010 to September 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model associations of processes of care and without-fail care, defined as receiving all guideline-concordant processes of care for which patients are eligible, with risk of death and recurrent stroke. Data were analyzed from March 2018 to April 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of all-cause mortality and recurrent ischemic stroke at 90 days and 1 year was calculated. Overall, 28 processes of care were examined. Without-fail care was assessed for 6 processes: brain imaging, carotid artery imaging, hypertension medication intensification, high- or moderate-potency statin therapy, antithrombotics, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation. Results: Among 8076 patients, the mean (SD) age was 67.8 (11.6) years, 7752 patients (96.0%) were men, 5929 (73.4%) were white, 474 (6.1%) had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 90 days, 793 (10.7%) had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year, 320 (4.0%) died within 90 days, and 814 (10.1%) died within 1 year. Overall, 9 processes were independently associated with lower odds of both 90-day and 1-year mortality after adjustment for multiple comparisons: carotid artery imaging (90-day adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.49; 95% CI, 0.38-0.63; 1-year aOR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.52-0.72), antihypertensive medication class (90-day aOR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.45-0.74; 1-year aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.83), lipid measurement (90-day aOR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90; 1-year aOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.53-0.78), lipid management (90-day aOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.33-0.65; 1-year aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.53-0.85), discharged receiving statin medication (90-day aOR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.36-0.73; 1-year aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88), cholesterol-lowering medication intensification (90-day aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.83; 1-year aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.41-0.77), antithrombotics by day 2 (90-day aOR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.40-0.79; 1-year aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.87) or at discharge (90-day aOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.41-0.86; 1-year aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.88), and neurology consultation (90-day aOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87; 1-year aOR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.63-0.87). Anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation was associated with lower odds of 1-year mortality only (aOR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.40-0.85). No processes were associated with reduced risk of recurrent stroke after adjustment for multiple comparisons. The rate of without-fail care was 15.3%; 1216 patients received all guideline-concordant processes of care for which they were eligible. Without-fail care was associated with a 31.2% lower odds of 1-year mortality (aOR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.87) but was not independently associated with stroke risk. Conclusions and Relevance: Patients who received 6 readily available processes of care had lower adjusted mortality 1 year after TIA or nonsevere ischemic stroke. Clinicians caring for patients with TIA and nonsevere ischemic stroke should seek to ensure that patients receive all guideline-concordant processes of care for which they are eligible

Marine climate and fisheries scenario of Kerala Climcard-3

Marine climate and fisheries scenario of Kerala Climcard-

Care Trajectories of Veterans in the Twelve Months following Hospitalization for Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background—Recovery after a stroke varies greatly between individuals and is reflected by wide variation in the use of institutional and home care services. This study sought to classify veterans according to their care trajectories in the 12 months after hospitalization for ischemic stroke. Methods and Results—The sample consisted of 3811 veterans hospitalized for ischemic stroke in Veterans Health Administration facilities in 2007. Three outcomes—nursing home care, home care, and mortality—were modeled jointly >12 months using latent class growth analysis. Data on Veterans’ care use and cost came from the Veterans Administration and Medicare. Covariates included stroke severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale), functional status (functional independence measure score), age, marital status, chronic conditions, and prestroke ambulation. Five care trajectories were identified: 49% of Veterans had Rapid Recovery with little or no use of care; 15% had a Steady Recovery with initially high nursing home or home care that tapered off; 9% had Long-Term Home Care; 13% had Long-Term Nursing Home Care; and 14% had an Unstable trajectory with multiple transitions between long-term and acute care settings. Care use was greatest for individuals with more severe strokes, lower functioning at hospital discharge, and older age. Average annual costs were highest for individuals with the Long-Term Nursing Home trajectory ($63 082), closely followed by individuals with the Unstable trajectory ($58 720). Individual with the Rapid Recovery trajectory had the lowest costs ($9271). Conclusions—Care trajectories after stroke were associated with stroke severity and functional dependency and they had a dramatic impact on subsequent costs

Estimating and Reporting on the Quality of Inpatient Stroke Care by Veterans Health Administration Medical Centers

Background—Reporting of quality indicators (QIs) in Veterans Health Administration Medical Centers is complicated by estimation error caused by small numbers of eligible patients per facility. We applied multilevel modeling and empirical Bayes (EB) estimation in addressing this issue in performance reporting of stroke care quality in the Medical Centers. Methods and Results—We studied a retrospective cohort of 3812 veterans admitted to 106 Medical Centers with ischemic stroke during fiscal year 2007. The median number of study patients per facility was 34 (range, 12–105). Inpatient stroke care quality was measured with 13 evidence-based QIs. Eligible patients could either pass or fail each indicator. Multilevel modeling of a patient's pass/fail on individual QIs was used to produce facility-level EB-estimated QI pass rates and confidence intervals. The EB estimation reduced interfacility variation in QI rates. Small facilities and those with exceptionally high or low rates were most affected. We recommended 8 of the 13 QIs for performance reporting: dysphagia screening, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale documentation, early ambulation, fall risk assessment, pressure ulcer risk assessment, Functional Independence Measure documentation, lipid management, and deep vein thrombosis prophylaxis. These QIs displayed sufficient variation across facilities, had room for improvement, and identified sites with performance that was significantly above or below the population average. The remaining 5 QIs were not recommended because of too few eligible patients or high pass rates with little variation. Conclusions—Considerations of statistical uncertainty should inform the choice of QIs and their application to performance reporting

Application of Information Communication Technology in Coastal Resilience through Income Improvement

Application of Information Communication Technology in Coastal Resilience through Income Improvemen