Multivariate Spatiotemporal Hawkes Processes and Network Reconstruction

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from spatiotemporal data sets using multivariate Hawkes processes. In contrast to prior work on network reconstruction with point-process models, which has often focused on exclusively temporal information, our approach uses both temporal and spatial information and does not assume a specific parametric form of network dynamics. This leads to an effective way of recovering an underlying network. We illustrate our approach using both synthetic networks and networks constructed from real-world data sets (a location-based social media network, a narrative of crime events, and violent gang crimes). Our results demonstrate that, in comparison to using only temporal data, our spatiotemporal approach yields improved network reconstruction, providing a basis for meaningful subsequent analysis --- such as community structure and motif analysis --- of the reconstructed networks

On Estimating the High-Energy Cutoff in the X-ray Spectra of Black Holes via Reflection Spectroscopy

The fundamental parameters describing the coronal spectrum of an accreting black hole are the slope $\Gamma$ of the power-law continuum and the energy $E_{cut}$ at which it rolls over. Remarkably, this parameter can be accurately measured for values as high as 1 MeV by modeling the spectrum of X-rays reflected from a black hole accretion disk at energies below 100 keV. This is possible because the details in the reflection spectrum, rich in fluorescent lines and other atomic features, are very sensitive to the spectral shape of the hardest coronal radiation illuminating the disk. We show that fitting simultaneous NuSTAR (3-79 keV) and low-energy (e.g., Suzaku) data with the most recent version of our reflection model RELXILL, one can obtain reasonable constraints on $E_{cut}$ at energies from tens of keV up to 1 MeV, for a source as faint as 1 mCrab in a 100 ks observation.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJL, 6 pages, 5 figure

Non-Contact Measurement of Thermal Diffusivity in Ion-Implanted Nuclear Materials

Knowledge of mechanical and physical property evolution due to irradiation damage is essential for the development of future fission and fusion reactors. Ion-irradiation provides an excellent proxy for studying irradiation damage, allowing high damage doses without sample activation. Limited ion-penetration-depth means that only few-micron-thick damaged layers are produced. Substantial effort has been devoted to probing the mechanical properties of these thin implanted layers. Yet, whilst key to reactor design, their thermal transport properties remain largely unexplored due to a lack of suitable measurement techniques. Here we demonstrate non-contact thermal diffusivity measurements in ion-implanted tungsten for nuclear fusion armour. Alloying with transmutation elements and the interaction of retained gas with implantation-induced defects both lead to dramatic reductions in thermal diffusivity. These changes are well captured by our modelling approaches. Our observations have important implications for the design of future fusion power plants.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figure

An assessment of chemical contaminants in the marine sediments of southwest Puerto Rico

This report summarizes the results of a characterization of chemical contaminants in the sediments in southwest Puerto Rico. The report is part of a project to integrate various analytical specialties to assess linkages between chemical contaminants and the condition of coral reefs. In this phase of the project, over 120 chemical contaminants were analyzed in sediments collected, including a number of organic (e.g., hydrocarbons), inorganic (e.g., metals), and biological (bacterial) compounds/analytes. The report also provides a preliminary analysis of the association between sediment contaminants and coral species richness. Overall, the levels of chemical contaminants in the study area between Guanica Bay and the town of La Parguera were fairly low. At most of the sites sampled, particularly adjacent to the town of La Parguera, concentrations of organic and inorganic contaminants were below the median values from NOAA’s National Status and Trends Program, which monitors the Nation’s coastal and estuarine waters for chemical contaminants. Elevated levels of a number of contaminant classes were seen at the two sites sampled within Guanica Bay. An initial analysis of modeled PAH (hydrocarbon) data and coral species richness (reef building species) indicated a strong negative correlation between the presence of PAHs in the sediments and coral species richness. Additional work is needed to assess possible reasons for this observed pattern. (PDF contains 126 pages)

Experimental Study of an Axisymmetric Dual Throat Fluidic Thrust Vectoring Nozzle for Supersonic Aircraft Application

An axisymmetric version of the Dual Throat Nozzle concept with a variable expansion ratio has been studied to determine the impacts on thrust vectoring and nozzle performance. The nozzle design, applicable to a supersonic aircraft, was guided using the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics code, PAB3D. The axisymmetric Dual Throat Nozzle concept was tested statically in the Jet Exit Test Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The nozzle geometric design variables included circumferential span of injection, cavity length, cavity convergence angle, and nozzle expansion ratio for conditions corresponding to take-off and landing, mid climb and cruise. Internal nozzle performance and thrust vectoring performance was determined for nozzle pressure ratios up to 10 with secondary injection rates up to 10 percent of the primary flow rate. The 60 degree span of injection generally performed better than the 90 degree span of injection using an equivalent injection area and number of holes, in agreement with computational results. For injection rates less than 7 percent, thrust vector angle for the 60 degree span of injection was 1.5 to 2 degrees higher than the 90 degree span of injection. Decreasing cavity length improved thrust ratio and discharge coefficient, but decreased thrust vector angle and thrust vectoring efficiency. Increasing cavity convergence angle from 20 to 30 degrees increased thrust vector angle by 1 degree over the range of injection rates tested, but adversely affected system thrust ratio and discharge coefficient. The dual throat nozzle concept generated the best thrust vectoring performance with an expansion ratio of 1.0 (a cavity in between two equal minimum areas). The variable expansion ratio geometry did not provide the expected improvements in discharge coefficient and system thrust ratio throughout the flight envelope of typical a supersonic aircraft. At mid-climb and cruise conditions, the variable geometry design compromised thrust vector angle achieved, but some thrust vector control would be available, potentially for aircraft trim. The fixed area, expansion ratio of 1.0, Dual Throat Nozzle provided the best overall compromise for thrust vectoring and nozzle internal performance over the range of NPR tested compared to the variable geometry Dual Throat Nozzle

Nocturia as an Unrecognized Symptom of Uncontrolled Hypertension in Black Men Aged 35 to 49 Years.

Background Hypertension is assumed to be asymptomatic. Yet, clinically significant nocturia (≥2 nightly voids) constitutes a putative symptom of uncontrolled hypertension. Black men with hypertension may be prone to nocturia because of blunted nocturnal blood pressure ( BP ) dipping, diuretic drug use for hypertension, and comorbidity that predisposes to nocturia. Here, we test the hypothesis that nocturia is a common and potentially reversible symptom of uncontrolled hypertension in black men. Methods and Results We determined the strength of association between nocturia (≥2 nightly voids) and high BP (≥135/85 mm Hg) by conducting in-person health interviews and measuring BP with an automated monitor in a large community-based sample of black men in their barbershops. Because nocturia is prevalent and steeply age-dependent after age 50 years, we studied men aged 35 to 49 years. Among 1673 black men (mean age, 43±4 years [ SD ]), those with hypertension were 56% more likely than men with normotension to have nocturia after adjustment for diabetes mellitus and sleep apnea (adjusted odds ratio, 1.56; 95% CI , 1.25-1.94 [ P<0.0001]). Nocturia prevalence varied by hypertension status, ranging from 24% in men with normotension to 49% in men whose hypertension was medically treated but uncontrolled. Men with untreated hypertension were 39% more likely than men with normotension to report nocturia ( P=0.02), whereas men whose hypertension was treated and controlled were no more likely than men with normotension to report nocturia ( P=0.69). Conclusions Uncontrolled hypertension was an independent determinant of clinically important nocturia in a large cross-sectional community-based study of non-Hispanic black men aged 35 to 49 years. Clinical Trial Registration URL : http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unqiue identifier: NCT 02321618

Design Enhancements of the Two-Dimensional, Dual Throat Fluidic Thrust Vectoring Nozzle Concept

A Dual Throat Nozzle fluidic thrust vectoring technique that achieves higher thrust-vectoring efficiencies than other fluidic techniques, without sacrificing thrust efficiency has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center. The nozzle concept was designed with the aid of the structured-grid, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluidic dynamics code PAB3D. This new concept combines the thrust efficiency of sonic-plane skewing with increased thrust-vectoring efficiencies obtained by maximizing pressure differentials in a separated cavity located downstream of the nozzle throat. By injecting secondary flow asymmetrically at the upstream minimum area, a new aerodynamic minimum area is formed downstream of the geometric minimum and the sonic line is skewed, thus vectoring the exhaust flow. The nozzle was tested in the NASA Langley Research Center Jet Exit Test Facility. Internal nozzle performance characteristics were defined for nozzle pressure ratios up to 10, with a range of secondary injection flow rates up to 10 percent of the primary flow rate. Most of the data included in this paper shows the effect of secondary injection rate at a nozzle pressure ratio of 4. The effects of modifying cavity divergence angle, convergence angle and cavity shape on internal nozzle performance were investigated, as were effects of injection geometry, hole or slot. In agreement with computationally predicted data, experimental data verified that decreasing cavity divergence angle had a negative impact and increasing cavity convergence angle had a positive impact on thrust vector angle and thrust efficiency. A curved cavity apex provided improved thrust ratios at some injection rates. However, overall nozzle performance suffered with no secondary injection. Injection holes were more efficient than the injection slot over the range of injection rates, but the slot generated larger thrust vector angles for injection rates less than 4 percent of the primary flow rate

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite