A short history of the successes and failures of the international climate change negotiations

The last 35 years have been a period of intense and continuous international negotiations to deal with climate change. During the same period of time humanity has doubled the amount of anthropogenic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There has, however, been progress and some notable successes in the negotiations. In 2015, at COP21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 196 countries adopted the Paris Agreement stating that they would limit global temperatures to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and would pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The first review of the Paris Agreement was at COP26 in Glasgow with many countries pledging to go to net zero emissions by the middle of the century. But currently these pledges, if fulfilled, will only limit the global average temperature to between 2.4°C and 2.8°C. At COP27 in Egypt the core agreements from the Glasgow Climate Pact were maintained and countries finally agreed to set up a loss and damage facility – although details of who will provide the finance and who can claim are still be to be worked out. This article reviews the key moments in the history of international climate change negotiations and discusses what the key objectives are for future COP meetings

A review of potential impacts of climate change on coffee cultivation and mycotoxigenic fungi

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world. It plays a significant role in the global economy, employing over 125 million people. However, it is possible that this vital crop is threatened by changing climate conditions and fungal infections. This paper reviews how suitable areas for coffee cultivation and the toxigenic fungi species of Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium will be affected due to climate change. By combining climate models with species distribution models, a number of studies have investigated the future distribution of coffee cultivation. Studies predict that suitable coffee cultivation area could drop by ~50% under representation concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 by 2050 for both Arabica and Robusta. These findings agree with other studies which also see an altitudinal migration of suitable cultivation areas to cooler regions, but limited scope for latitudinal migration owing to coffee’s inability to tolerate seasonal temperature changes. Increased temperatures will see an overall increase in mycotoxin production such as aflatoxins, particularly in mycotoxigenic fungi (e.g., Aspergillus flavus) more suited to higher temperatures. Arabica and Robusta’s limited ability to relocate means both species will be grown in less suitable climates, increasing plant stress and making coffee more susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxins. Information regarding climate change parameters with respect to mycotoxin concentrations in real coffee samples is provided and how the changed climate affects mycotoxins in non-coffee systems is discussed. In a few areas where relocating farms is possible, mycotoxin contamination may decrease due to the “parasites lost” phenomenon. More research is needed to include the effect of mycotoxins on coffee under various climate change scenarios, as currently there is a significant knowledge gap, and only generalisations can be made. Future modelling of coffee cultivation, which includes the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilisation and forest management, is also required; however, all indications show that climate change will have an extremely negative effect on future coffee production worldwide in terms of both a loss of suitable cultivation areas and an increase in mycotoxin contamination.This research received external funding from the Natural Environment Research Council London DTP (NE/L002485/1).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Centennial-scale evolution of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the northeast Atlantic Ocean between 39.5 and 56.5 ka B.P

There is much uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms that forced the abrupt climate fluctuations found in many palaeoclimate records during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-3. One of the processes thought to be involved in these events is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), which exhibited large changes in its dominant mode throughout the last glacial period. Giant piston core MD95-2006 from the northeast Atlantic Ocean records a suite of palaeoceanographic proxies related to the activity of both surface and deep water masses through a period of MIS-3 when abrupt climate fluctuations were extremely pronounced. A two-stage progression of surface water warming during interstadial warm events is proposed, with initial warming related to the northward advection of a thin warm surface layer within the North Atlantic Current, which only extended into deeper surface layers as the interstadial progressed. Benthic foraminifera isotope data also show millennial-scale oscillations but of a different structure to the abrupt surface water changes. These changes are argued to partly be related to the influence of low-salinity deepwater brines. The influence of deepwater brines over the site of MD95-2006 reached a maximum at times of rapid warming of surface waters. This observation supports the suggestion that brine formation may have helped to destabilize the accumulation of warm, saline surface waters at low latitudes, helping to force the MOC into a warm mode of operation. The contribution of deepwater brines relative to other mechanisms proposed to alter the state of the MOC needs to be examined further in future studies

East African lake evidence for Pliocene millennial-scale climate variability

Late Cenozoic climate history in Africa was punctuated by episodes of variability, characterized by the appearance and disappearance of large freshwater lakes within the East African Rift Valley. In the Baringo-Bogoria basin, a well-dated sequence of diatomites and fluviolacustrine sediments documents the precessionally forced cycling of an extensive lake system between 2.70 Ma and 2.55 Ma. One diatomite unit was studied, using the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica combined with X-ray fluorescence spectrometry and taxonomic assemblage changes, to explore the nature of climate variability during this interval. Data reveal a rapid onset and gradual decline of deepwater lake conditions, which exhibit millennial-scale cyclicity of ∼1400–1700 yr, similar to late Quaternary Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These cycles are thought to reflect enhanced precipitation coincident with increased monsoonal strength, suggesting the existence of a teleconnection between the high latitudes and East Africa during this period. Such climatic variability could have affected faunal and floral evolution at the time

Location location location: A carbon footprint calculator for transparent travel to COP27

Addressing the large carbon footprint of conferences such as the UN Climate Change Convention Conference of the Parties (COP) will be important for maintaining public confidence in climate policy. Transparency is also a vital aspect of creating equitable outcomes in climate policies, as often those most likely to be affected or who are able to create change on the ground are often unable to attend in person because of the high financial costs as well as having a large carbon footprint. The selection of host locations for the regular meetings of the UN Climate Change Convention is based on a rotation in amongst the five UN regions, which for 2022 is Africa. Here, we present UCL’s own carbon footprint calculator and use it to weigh the benefits of certain modes of transport to the 2021 COP 26 in Glasgow, UK and the 2022 COP 27 to be held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The calculator demonstrates the well-known carbon-efficiency of coach and rail over flights, but shows that these benefits are only partly mitigated in the case of COP 27 due to insufficient transport links from Europe to the conference location. However, we also highlight some of the benefits of hosting a COP in the global South, particularly in the context of climate justice. Incorporating these principles into the calculator, we invite visitors to COP this year to carefully consider their options for carbon offsetting and how the tenets of climate justice could be integrated into the carbon accounting framework

Paleo-ENSO influence on African environments and early modern humans

Our results identify the prime driver of climate variation in Africa’s low latitudes over the past 620 ky—the key time frame for the evolution of our species. Warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean paced by insolation changes modulated the tropical Walker circulation, driving opposing wet–dry states in eastern and western Africa. We show that the effects of glacial/interglacial cycles were not the predominant source of environmental change in most of the continent. Africa’s environmental patchwork driven by low-latitude climate processes should therefore be a critical component in conceptual models of human evolution and early demography over the past 620 ky.In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620 ky, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth’s eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.All study data are included in the article and/or supporting information.Results Discussion Conclusion Materials and Methods - pwPCA. - Breakpoint Analysis. - Median Calculation

A pulse of mid-Pleistocene rift volcanism in Ethiopia at the dawn of modern humans

The Ethiopian Rift Valley hosts the longest record of human co-existence with volcanoes on Earth, however, current understanding of the magnitude and timing of large explosive eruptions in this region is poor. Detailed records of volcanism are essential for interpreting the palaeoenvironments occupied by our hominin ancestors; and also for evaluating the volcanic hazards posed to the 10 million people currently living within this active rift zone. Here we use new geochronological evidence to suggest that a 200 km-long segment of rift experienced a major pulse of explosive volcanic activity between 320 and 170 ka. During this period, at least four distinct volcanic centres underwent large-volume (>10 km3) caldera-forming eruptions, and eruptive fluxes were elevated five times above the average eruption rate for the past 700 ka. We propose that such pulses of episodic silicic volcanism would have drastically remodelled landscapes and ecosystems occupied by early hominin populations