Mathematical Models for Natural Gas Forecasting

It is vital for natural gas Local Distribution Companies (LDCs) to forecast their customers\u27 natural gas demand accurately. A significant error on a single very cold day can cost the customers of the LDC millions of dollars. This paper looks at the financial implication of forecasting natural gas, the nature of natural gas forecasting, the factors that impact natural gas consumption, and describes a survey of mathematical techniques and practices used to model natural gas demand. Many of the techniques used in this paper currently are implemented in a software GasDayTM, which is currently used by 24 LDCs throughout the United States, forecasting about 20% of the total U.S. residential, commercial, and industrial consumption. Results of GasDay\u27sTM forecasting performance also is presented

Narrow grass hedge effects on microbial transport following variable applications of beef cattle manure

The effectiveness of a 1.4 m wide grass hedge in reducing microbial transport following manure application was examined in this study. Beef cattle manure was applied to 0.75 m wide by 4.0 m long plots established on an Aksarben silty clay loam located in southeast Nebraska. Manure was added at rates required to meet none or the 1-, 2-, or 4-year nitrogen requirements for corn. The transport of phages, total coliforms, E. coli, and enterococci was measured for three 30 min simulated rainfall events, which were separated by approximately 24 h intervals. The narrow grass hedge reduced total counts of phages, E. coli, and enterococci from 10.8 to 9.01 log PFU ha-1, from 12.4 to 11.9 log CFU ha-1, and from 11.8 to 11.2 log CFU ha-1, respectively. For the plots that received manure, no significant differences in transport of phages or enterococci were found among the three manure application rates. Rainfall simulation run significantly affected measurements of phages, total coliforms, and enterococci, with measurements during the three runs varying from 8.91 to 10.5 log PFU ha-1, from 12.7 to 13.3 log CFU ha-1, and from 11.2 to 11.7 log CFU ha-1, respectively. Counts for phages, total coliforms, and enterococci were significantly less for the first than the second and third rainfall simulation runs. All four of the microbial constituents were significantly correlated to dissolved P, particulate P, total P, and total N. A narrow grass hedge placed on the contour significantly reduced microbial transport following variable applications of beef cattle manure

Trauma Exposure and Transdiagnostic Distress: Examining Shared and PTSD-Specific Associations

Dimensional models of psychopathology suggest that the causes and consequences of psychopathology are attributable to a combination of syndrome specific and transdiagnostic features. There is considerable evidence that trauma exposure confers risk for a wide range of psychiatric conditions, yet no previous work has specifically examined the higher-order effects of trauma exposure within a structural model. We examined transdiagnostic and PTSD-specific associations with multiple forms of trauma exposure within a nation-wide sample (N = 1,649; 50% female) of military Veterans over-selected for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). A higher-order Distress variable was estimated using PTSD, major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) symptoms as indicators. A structural equation model spanning three measurement time points over an average of 3.85 years was then used to examine the unique roles of higher-order Distress and PTSD residual variance in accounting for the relations between trauma exposure and psychosocial impairment. Results suggest that the association between trauma exposure and PTSD symptoms is primarily mediated by higher-order Distress, but that PTSD severity does have a significant association with trauma exposure independent of Distress. Both higher-order Distress and PTSD-specific variance were necessary to account for the association between trauma exposure and future functional impairment. This work suggests there may be shared etiology linking cumulative trauma exposure and a range of internalizing symptoms. Continued application of higher-order dimensional models is needed to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the consequences of trauma exposure

Using an unmanned aerial vehicle to evaluate nitrogen variability and height effect with an active crop canopy sensor

Ground-based active sensors have been used in the past with success in detecting nitrogen (N) variability within maize production systems. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) presents an opportunity to evaluate N variability with unique advantages compared to ground-based systems. The objectives of this study were to: determine if a UAV was a suitable platform for use with an active crop canopy sensor to monitor in-season N status of maize, if UAV’s were a suitable platform, is the UAV and active sensor platform a suitable substitute for current handheld methods, and is there a height effect that may be confounding measurements of N status over crop canopies? In a 2013 study comparing aerial and ground-based sensor platforms, there was no difference in the ability of aerial and ground-based active sensors to detect N rate effects on a maize crop canopy. In a 2014 study, an active sensor mounted on a UAV was able to detect differences in crop canopy N status similarly to a handheld active sensor. The UAV/active sensor system (AerialActive) platform used in this study detected N rate differences in crop canopy N status within a range of 0.5–1.5 m above a relatively uniform turfgrass canopy. The height effect for an active sensor above a crop canopy is sensor- and crop-specific, which needs to be taken into account when implementing such a system. Unmanned aerial vehicles equipped with active crop canopy sensors provide potential for automated data collection to quantify crop stress in addition to passive sensors currently in use

Microbial transport as affected by residue cover and manure application rate

Manure is applied to cropland areas with varying surface cover to meet single- or multiple-year crop nutrient requirements. The objectives of this field study were to (1) examine microbial transport following land application of manure to sites with and without wheat residue, (2) compare microbial loads following land application to meet the 0, 1, 2, 4, and 8-year P-based requirements for corn, and (3) evaluate the effects of rainfall simulation run on microbial transport. Manure was added and incorporated by disking plots that were 0.75 m wide by 2.0 m long. Three 30 min simulated rainfall events, separated by 24 h intervals, were then applied at an intensity of 70 mm h-1. Plots containing wheat residue had a total coliform load of 12.6 log CFU ha-1, which was significantly greater than the 12.4 log CFU ha-1 measured on the plots without wheat residue. The plots with and without wheat residue had transport rates of E. coli and enterococci that were not significantly different. The plots on which manure was added at rates varying from 5.4 to 42.8 Mg ha-1 had counts of total coliforms and enterococci that were not significantly different. Rainfall simulation run did not significantly affect measurements of phages, total coliforms, or enterococci. Transport of selected microbes was found to be significantly affected by residue cover, manure application rate, and rainfall simulation run

Mental Health Service Utilization before and after Receipt of a Service‐Connected Disability Award for PTSD: Findings from a National Sample

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146624/1/hesr12859.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146624/2/hesr12859-sup-0001-AppendixSA1.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146624/3/hesr12859_am.pd

The Prevalence and Clinical Implications of Comorbid Back Pain in Shoulder Instability: A Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability Cohort Study.

Background:Understanding predictors of pain is critical, as recent literature shows that comorbid back pain is an independent risk factor for worse functional and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as well as increased opioid dependence after total joint arthroplasty. Purpose/Hypothesis:The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether comorbid back pain would be predictive of pain or self-reported instability symptoms at the time of stabilization surgery. We hypothesized that comorbid back pain will correlate with increased pain at the time of surgery as well as with worse scores on shoulder-related PRO measures. Study Design:Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods:As part of the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability cohort, patients consented to participate in pre- and intraoperative data collection. Demographic characteristics, injury history, preoperative PRO scores, and radiologic and intraoperative findings were recorded for patients undergoing surgical shoulder stabilization. Patients were also asked, whether they had any back pain. Results:The study cohort consisted of 1001 patients (81% male; mean age, 24.1 years). Patients with comorbid back pain (158 patients; 15.8%) were significantly older (28.1 vs 23.4 years; P < .001) and were more likely to be female (25.3% vs 17.4%; P = .02) but did not differ in terms of either preoperative imaging or intraoperative findings. Patients with self-reported back pain had significantly worse preoperative pain and shoulder-related PRO scores (American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score, Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index) (P < .001), more frequent depression (22.2% vs 8.3%; P < .001), poorer mental health status (worse scores for the RAND 36-Item Health Survey Mental Component Score, Iowa Quick Screen, and Personality Assessment Screener) (P < .01), and worse preoperative expectations (P < .01). Conclusion:Despite having similar physical findings, patients with comorbid back pain had more severe preoperative pain and self-reported symptoms of instability as well as more frequent depression and lower mental health scores. The combination of disproportionate shoulder pain, comorbid back pain and mental health conditions, and inferior preoperative expectations may affect not only the patient's preoperative state but also postoperative pain control and/or postoperative outcomes

Staged Left Ventricular Recruitment After Single-Ventricle Palliation in Patients With Borderline Left Heart Hypoplasia

ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to review results of a novel management strategy intended to rehabilitate the left heart (LH) in patients with LH hypoplasia who have undergone single-ventricle palliation (SVP).BackgroundManagement of patients with hypoplastic LH syndrome and borderline left ventricle (LV) involves 2 options: SVP or biventricular repair. We hypothesized that staged LV recruitment and biventricular conversion may be achieved after SVP by using a strategy consisting of relief of inflow and outflow tract obstructions, resection of endocardial fibroelastosis, and promotion of flow through the LV.MethodsPatients with hypoplastic LH and borderline LV who underwent traditional SVP (n = 34) or staged LV recruitment (n = 34) between 1995 and 2010 were retrospectively analyzed and compared with a control SVP group.ResultsMean initial z-scores for LH structures before stage 1 SVP were not significantly different between groups. Mortality occurred in 4 of 34 patients after LV recruitment and in 7 of 34 after traditional SVP. LH dimension z-scores increased significantly over time after LV recruitment, whereas they declined after traditional SVP, with significant interaction between stage of palliation and treatment group. Restriction of the atrial septum (conducted in 19 of 34 patients) was the only predictor of increase in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (p < 0.001). Native biventricular circulation was achieved in 12 patients after staged LV recruitment; all of these patients had restriction at the atrial septum.ConclusionsIn these patients with borderline LH disease who underwent SVP, it is possible to increase LH dimensions by using an LV recruitment strategy. In a subset of patients, this strategy allowed establishment of biventricular circulation

Development of Advanced Electrochemical Emission Spectroscopy for Monitoring Corrosion in Simulated DOE Liquid Waste

Various forms of general and localized corrosion represent principal threats to the integrity of DOE liquid waste storage tanks. These tanks, which are of a single wall or double wall design, depending upon their age, are fabricated from welded carbon steel and contain a complex waste-form comprised of NaOH and NaNO{sub 3}, along with trace amounts of phosphate, sulfate, carbonate, and chloride. Because waste leakage can have a profound environmental impact, considerable interest exists in predicting the accumulation of corrosion damage, so as to more effectively schedule maintenance and repair. The different tasks that are being carried out under the current program are as follows: (1) Theoretical and experimental assessment of general corrosion of iron/steel in borate buffer solutions by using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), ellipsometry and XPS techniques; (2) Development of a damage function analysis (DFA) which would help in predicting the accumulation of damage due to pitting corrosion in an environment prototypical of DOE liquid waste systems; (3) Experimental measurement of crack growth rate, acoustic emission signals and coupling currents for fracture in carbon and low alloy steels as functions of mechanical (stress intensity), chemical (conductivity), electrochemical (corrosion potential, ECP), and microstructural (grain size, precipitate size, etc) variables in a systematic manner, with particular attention being focused on the structure of the noise in the current and its correlation with the acoustic emissions; (4) Development of fracture mechanisms for carbon and low alloy steels that are consistent with the crack growth rate, coupling current data and acoustic emissions; (5) Inserting advanced crack growth rate models for SCC into existing deterministic codes for predicting the evolution of corrosion damage in DOE liquid waste storage tanks; (6) Computer simulation of the anodic and cathodic activity on the surface of the steel samples in order to exactly predict the corrosion mechanisms; (7) Wavelet analysis of EC noise data from steel samples undergoing corrosion in an environment similar to that of the high level waste storage containers, to extract data pertaining to general, pitting and stress corrosion processes, from the overall data. The Point Defect Model (PDM) is directly applied as the theoretical assessment method for describing the passive film formed on iron/steels. The PDM is used to describe general corrosion in the passive region of iron. In addition, previous work suggests that pit formation is due to the coalescence of cation vacancies at the metal/film interface which would make it possible to use the PDM parameters to predict the onset of pitting. This previous work suggests that once the critical vacancy density is reached, the film ruptures to form a pit. Based upon the kinetic parameters derived for the general corrosion case, two parameters relating to the cation vacancy formation and annihilation can be calculated. These two parameters can then be applied to predict the transition from general to pitting corrosion for iron/mild steels. If cation vacancy coalescence is shown to lead to pitting, it can have a profound effect on the direction of future studies involving the onset of pitting corrosion. The work has yielded a number of important findings, including an unequivocal demonstration of the role of chloride ion in passivity breakdown on nickel in terms of cation vacancy generation within the passive film, the first detection and characterization of individual micro fracture events in stress corrosion cracking, and the determination of kinetic parameters for the generation and annihilation of point defects in the passive film on iron. The existence of coupling between the internal crack environment and the external cathodic environment, as predicted by the coupled environment fracture model (CEFM), has also been indisputably established for the AISI 4340/NaOH system. It is evident from the studies that analysis of coupling current noise is a very sensitive tool for studying the crack tip processes in relation to the chemical, mechanical, electrochemical and microstructural properties of the system. Experiments are currently being carried out to explore these crack tip processes by simultaneous measurement of the acoustic activity at the crack tip in an effort to validate the coupling current data. These latter data are now being used to deterministically predict the accumulation of general and localized corrosion damage on carbon in prototypical DOE liquid waste storage tanks. Computer simulation of the cathodic and anodic activity on the steel surfaces is also being carried out in an effort to simulate the actual corrosion process. Wavelet analysis of the coupling current data promises to be a useful tool to differentiate between the different corrosion mechanisms