Extension Property

Here, we study games of incomplete information and argue that it is important to correctly specify the “context ” within which hierarchies of beliefs lie. We consider a situation where the players understand more than the analyst: It is transparent to the players—but not to the analyst—that certain hierarchies of beliefs are precluded. In particular, the players ’ type structure can be viewed as a strict subset of the analyst’s type structure. How does this affect a Bayesian equilibrium analysis? One natural conjecture is that this doesn’t change the analysis—i.e., every equilibrium of the players’ type structure can be associated with an equilibrium of the analyst’s type structure. We show that this conjecture is wrong. Bayesian equilibrium may fail an Extension Property. This can occur even in the case where the game is finite and the analyst uses the so-called universal structure (to analyze the game)—and, even, if the associated Bayesian game has an equilibrium. We go on to explore specific situations in which th

The effect of dividends on consumption

Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock returns in the form of dividends. Using two micro data sets, we show that investors are indeed far more likely to consume from dividends than capital gains. In the Consumer Expenditure Survey, household consumption increases with dividend income, controlling for total wealth, total portfolio returns, and other sources of income. In a sample of household investment accounts data from a brokerage, net withdrawals from the accounts increase one-for-one with ordinary dividends of moderate size, controlling for total portfolio returns, and also increase with mutual fund and special dividends. We comment on several potential explanations for the results

Remarks on the method of comparison equations (generalized WKB method) and the generalized Ermakov-Pinney equation

The connection between the method of comparison equations (generalized WKB method) and the Ermakov-Pinney equation is established. A perturbative scheme of solution of the generalized Ermakov-Pinney equation is developed and is applied to the construction of perturbative series for second-order differential equations with and without turning points.Comment: The collective of the authors is enlarged and the calculations in Sec. 3 are correcte

Impact of Tail Loss on the Behaviour and Locomotor Performance of Two Sympatric Lampropholis Skink Species

Caudal autotomy is an anti-predator behaviour that is used by many lizard species. Although there is an immediate survival benefit, the subsequent absence of the tail may inhibit locomotor performance, alter activity and habitat use, and increase the individuals' susceptibility to future predation attempts. We used laboratory experiments to examine the impact of tail autotomy on locomotor performance, activity and basking site selection in two lizard species, the delicate skink (Lampropholis delicata) and garden skink (L. guichenoti), that occur sympatrically throughout southeastern Australia and are exposed to an identical suite of potential predators. Post-autotomy tail movement did not differ between the two Lampropholis species, although a positive relationship between the shed tail length and distance moved, but not the duration of movement, was observed. Tail autotomy resulted in a substantial decrease in sprint speed in both species (28–39%), although this impact was limited to the optimal performance temperature (30°C). Although L. delicata was more active than L. guichenoti, tail autotomy resulted in decreased activity in both species. Sheltered basking sites were preferred over open sites by both Lampropholis species, although this preference was stronger in L. delicata. Caudal autotomy did not alter the basking site preferences of either species. Thus, both Lampropholis species had similar behavioural responses to autotomy. Our study also indicates that the impact of tail loss on locomotor performance may be temperature-dependent and highlights that future studies should be conducted over a broad thermal range

Oldest known pantherine skull and evolution of the tiger

The tiger is one of the most iconic extant animals, and its origin and evolution have been intensely debated. Fossils attributable to extant pantherine species-lineages are less than 2 MYA and the earliest tiger fossils are from the Calabrian, Lower Pleistocene. Molecular studies predict a much younger age for the divergence of modern tiger subspecies at <100 KYA, although their cranial morphology is readily distinguishable, indicating that early Pleistocene tigers would likely have differed markedly anatomically from extant tigers. Such inferences are hampered by the fact that well-known fossil tiger material is middle to late Pleistocene in age. Here we describe a new species of pantherine cat from Longdan, Gansu Province, China, Panthera zdanskyi sp. nov. With an estimated age of 2.55–2.16 MYA it represents the oldest complete skull of a pantherine cat hitherto found. Although smaller, it appears morphologically to be surprisingly similar to modern tigers considering its age. Morphological, morphometric, and cladistic analyses are congruent in confirming its very close affinity to the tiger, and it may be regarded as the most primitive species of the tiger lineage, demonstrating the first unequivocal presence of a modern pantherine species-lineage in the basal stage of the Pleistocene (Gelasian; traditionally considered to be Late Pliocene). This find supports a north-central Chinese origin of the tiger lineage, and demonstrates that various parts of the cranium, mandible, and dentition evolved at different rates. An increase in size and a reduction in the relative size of parts of the dentition appear to have been prominent features of tiger evolution, whereas the distinctive cranial morphology of modern tigers was established very early in their evolutionary history. The evolutionary trend of increasing size in the tiger lineage is likely coupled to the evolution of its primary prey species

Using Administrative Data to Count Local Populations

There is growing evidence that official population statistics based on the decennial census are inaccurate at the local authority level—the fundamental administrative unit of the UK. This paper investigates the use of locally available administrative data sets for counting populations. The method uses truth tables for combining different data sources with different population coverage according to a defined and therefore replicable set of rules. The result is timelier and geographically more flexible data which is more cost-effective to produce than a survey-based census. Associated techniques for linking diverse data sources at individual and household level are briefly discussed. The methodology is then applied to administrative data from a London borough with about 170,000 people. The results are evaluated and compared with other population sources. The paper concludes by discussing potential improvements including scaling up the work to cover multiple local authorities. The practicalities of using alternative central government data sets are briefly considered. A sequel paper in this journal provides examples of key applications of this approach at local level

Re-emphasizing the concept of adequacy of intraoperative assessment of the axillary sentinel lymph nodes for identifying nodal positivity during breast cancer surgery

BACKGROUND: Although sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is a standard of care for the evaluation of the axillary lymph nodes during breast cancer surgery, a substantial degree of variation exists among individual surgeons as to what represents an adequate assessment. The aim of the current study was to assess when metastatic disease was first identified within consecutively harvested SLN candidates for invasive breast cancers demonstrating a positive SLN. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a series of 400 breast cancers from a recently published prospective randomized clinical trial. A combined radiocolloid and blue dye technique was used. All potential SLN candidates, containing counts of at least 10% of the hottest SLN and/or containing blue dye, were harvested and were consecutively numbered in the order of the decreasing level of counts (with the hottest SLN representing SLN #1). RESULTS: Among 371 invasive breast cancers, a SLN was identified within 353 cases (95%). Mean number of SLNs identified was 2.5 (range, 1 to 9), with a single SLN identified in 104 (29%) cases, two identified in 110 (31%), three identified in 73 (21%), four identified in 35 (10%), five identified in 16 (5%), and six or more identified in 15 (4%). A positive SLN was found in 104 (29%) cases. SLN #1 was the first positive SLN in 86 (83%). SLN #2 was the first positive SLN in 15 (14%). SLN #3, SLN #4, and SLN #5 were the first positive SLN in one case (1%) each. A positive SLN was found in 18% (19/104) of cases when a single SLN was identified, as compared to in 34% (85/249) when two or more SLNs were identified (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The accurate and optimal assessment of the axilla during breast cancer surgery requires persistence and diligence for attempting to identify all potential SLN candidates in order to avoid failing to recognize a positive SLN. The scenario in which only a single negative SLN candidate is intraoperatively identified is one that should raise some concern to the operating surgeon

A Dynamic Model of Interactions of Ca^(2+), Calmodulin, and Catalytic Subunits of Ca^(2+)/Calmodulin-Dependent Protein Kinase II

During the acquisition of memories, influx of Ca^(2+) into the postsynaptic spine through the pores of activated N-methyl-D-aspartate-type glutamate receptors triggers processes that change the strength of excitatory synapses. The pattern of Ca^(2+) influx during the first few seconds of activity is interpreted within the Ca^(2+)-dependent signaling network such that synaptic strength is eventually either potentiated or depressed. Many of the critical signaling enzymes that control synaptic plasticity, including Ca^(2+)/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII), are regulated by calmodulin, a small protein that can bind up to 4 Ca^(2+) ions. As a first step toward clarifying how the Ca^(2+)-signaling network decides between potentiation or depression, we have created a kinetic model of the interactions of Ca^(2+), calmodulin, and CaMKII that represents our best understanding of the dynamics of these interactions under conditions that resemble those in a postsynaptic spine. We constrained parameters of the model from data in the literature, or from our own measurements, and then predicted time courses of activation and autophosphorylation of CaMKII under a variety of conditions. Simulations showed that species of calmodulin with fewer than four bound Ca^(2+) play a significant role in activation of CaMKII in the physiological regime, supporting the notion that processing ofCa^(2+) signals in a spine involves competition among target enzymes for binding to unsaturated species of CaM in an environment in which the concentration of Ca^(2+) is fluctuating rapidly. Indeed, we showed that dependence of activation on the frequency of Ca^(2+) transients arises from the kinetics of interaction of fluctuating Ca^(2+) with calmodulin/CaMKII complexes. We used parameter sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters will be most beneficial to measure more carefully to improve the accuracy of predictions. This model provides a quantitative base from which to build more complex dynamic models of postsynaptic signal transduction during learning

The Role of Individual Variables, Organizational Variables and Moral Intensity Dimensions in Libyan Management Accountants’ Ethical Decision Making

This study investigates the association of a broad set of variables with the ethical decision making of management accountants in Libya. Adopting a cross-sectional methodology, a questionnaire including four different ethical scenarios was used to gather data from 229 participants. For each scenario, ethical decision making was examined in terms of the recognition, judgment and intention stages of Rest’s model. A significant relationship was found between ethical recognition and ethical judgment and also between ethical judgment and ethical intention, but ethical recognition did not significantly predict ethical intention—thus providing support for Rest’s model. Organizational variables, age and educational level yielded few significant results. The lack of significance for codes of ethics might reflect their relative lack of development in Libya, in which case Libyan companies should pay attention to their content and how they are supported, especially in the light of the under-development of the accounting profession in Libya. Few significant results were also found for gender, but where they were found, males showed more ethical characteristics than females. This unusual result reinforces the dangers of gender stereotyping in business. Personal moral philosophy and moral intensity dimensions were generally found to be significant predictors of the three stages of ethical decision making studied. One implication of this is to give more attention to ethics in accounting education, making the connections between accounting practice and (in Libya) Islam. Overall, this study not only adds to the available empirical evidence on factors affecting ethical decision making, notably examining three stages of Rest’s model, but also offers rare insights into the ethical views of practising management accountants and provides a benchmark for future studies of ethical decision making in Muslim majority countries and other parts of the developing world