What Drives Mineral Commodity Markets in the Long Run?

This thesis analyzes the long-run development of mineral commodity markets both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective. The first chapter presents a model that replicates long-term trends in non-renewable resource markets, namely stable prices and exponentially increasing extraction, for which we present data from 1792 to 2010. We add an extractive sector to an endogenous growth model of expanding varieties and directed technological change. Extractive firms can draw down resource stocks through extraction, but also renew stocks through investment in new extraction technology. Our results suggest that technological change in extraction technologies offsets the increasing demand for non-renewable resources in industrializing countries like China in the long run. In the second chapter I provide long-term evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on mineral commodity prices. I explore a new annual data-set on prices and production of copper, lead, tin, zinc, and crude oil from 1840 to 2010. Long-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by persistent ''world output-driven demand shocks'' and ''other demand shocks''. Historical accounts of market events suggest that ''other demand shocks'' mainly capture changes in inventories. Due to oligopolistic industry structures, ''supply shocks'' exhibit some effects on the prices of tin and copper, but not on the prices of lead and zinc. Subsample results for crude oil indicate that during earlier periods ''supply shocks'' have been important drivers. My results suggest that prices will return to their stable or even declining trends in the long run. The third chapter deals with the long-term determinants of demand for mineral commodities. It is the first to provide empirical evidence covering the main periods of industrialization as far back as 1840. I extend the standard partial adjustment model to account for country-specific economic structures, technological change, and endogeneity. I find that the demand for aluminum and copper increases disproportionately high over the course of industrialization, while it decreases for lead, tin, and zinc. This suggests that the industrialization in China, for example, will cause aluminum and copper demand to rise to far higher levels than the demand for lead, tin, and zinc. The demand for all examined mineral commodities is highly inelastic with respect to price in the long run. According to theory, this causes incentives for conflict over these commodities and makes markets prone to speculation. All variables adjust slowly to equilibrium, which helps to explain the extended fluctuation in these markets

Neuroticism, extraversion, stressful life events and asthma: a cohort study of middle-aged adults

ABSTRACT Background: Stressful life events can trigger asthma exacerbations, but could also contribute to the development of incident asthma. However, only few studies have investigated the association between stressful life events and adult asthma prospectively. Likewise, stress-related personality traits (e.g. neuroticism and extraversion) may increase asthma risk, but this has been examined in only one prospective study. We therefore aimed to investigate the association between neuroticism, extraversion, stressful life events and incident asthma. Methods: A population-based sample of 5114 middle-aged adults completed questionnaires between 1992 and 1995. Among those alive in 2002/2003, 4010 (83%) were followed-up by questionnaires. Exposures of interest included neuroticism, extraversion and three stressful life events (unemployment, having broken off a life partnership and death of a close person). Associations with incident asthma were estimated by multivariable risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using Poisson regression. Results: High vs low neuroticism predisposed to developing asthma (RR = 3.07, 95% CI = 1.71–5.48), but high extraversion did not (RR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.79–2.15). Having broken off a life partnership significantly increased asthma risk (RR = 2.24, 95% CI = 1.20–4.21) in contrast to death of a close person (RR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.64–1.75) or unemployment (RR = 1.65, 95% CI = 0.72–3.78). Conclusions: High levels of neuroticism may increase the risk of asthma in middle-aged adults. Having broken off a life partnership was the only stressful event, which was associated with incident asthma. Synthesized with evidence from earlier studies, this could reflect that interpersonal conflicts may increase asthma risk, possibly along an immunological pathway

The L76V mutation in HIV-1 protease is potentially associated with hypersusceptibility to protease inhibitors Atazanavir and Saquinavir: is there a clinical advantage?

Background: Although being considered as a rarely observed HIV-1 protease mutation in clinical isolates, the L76V-prevalence increased 1998-2008 in some European countries most likely due to the approval of Lopinavir, Amprenavir and Darunavir which can select L76V. Beside an enhancement of resistance, L76V is also discussed to confer hypersusceptibility to the drugs Atazanavir and Saquinavir which might enable new treatment strategies by trying to take advantage of particular mutations. Results: Based on a cohort of 47 L76V-positive patients, we examined if there might exist a clinical advantage for L76V-positive patients concerning long-term success of PI-containing regimens in patients with limited therapy options. Genotypic- and phenotypic HIV-resistance tests from 47 mostly multi-resistant, L76V-positive patients throughout Germany were accomplished retrospectively 1999-2009. Five genotype-based drug-susceptibility predictions received from online interpretation-tools for Atazanavir, Saquinavir, Amprenavir and Lopinavir, were compared to phenotype-based predictions that were determined by using a recombinant virus assay along with a Virtual Phenotype™(Virco). The clinical outcome of the L76V-adapted follow-up therapy was determined by monitoring viral load for 96 weeks. Conclusions: In this analysis, the mostly used interpretation systems overestimated the L76V-mutation concerning Atazanavir- and SQV resistance. In fact, a clear benefit in drug susceptibility for these drugs was observed in phenotype analysis after establishment of L76V. More importantly, long-term therapy success was significantly higher in patients receiving Atazanavir and/or Saquinavir plus one L76V-selecting drug compared to patients without L76V-selecting agents (p = 0.002). In case of L76V-occurrence ATV and/or SQV may represent encouraging options for patients in deep salvage situations

Virological and immunological response to three boosted protease inhibitor regimens

Poster presentation: Purpose of the study To compare the virological, immunological and clinical response to three boosted double protease inhibitor (PI) regimens of saquinavir and ritonavir in combination with lopinavir (LOPSAQ), atazanavir (ATSAQ) or fosamprenavir (FOSAQ) without reverse transcriptase inhibitors (RTI) in HIV-positive patients with limited RTI treatment options. ..

Regional spread of HIV-1 M subtype B in middle-aged patients by random env-C2V4 region sequencing

A transmission cluster of HIV-1 M:B was identified in 11 patients with a median age of 52 (range 26–65) in North-East Germany by C2V4 region sequencing of the env gene of HIV-1, who—except of one—were not aware of any risky behaviour. The 10 male and 1 female patients deteriorated immunologically, according to their information made available, within 4 years after a putative HIV acquisition. Nucleic acid sequence analysis showed a R5 virus in all patients and in 7 of 11 a crown motif of the V3 loop, GPGSALFTT, which is found rarely. Analysis of formation of this cluster showed that there is still a huge discrepancy between awareness and behaviour regarding HIV transmission in middle-aged patients, and that a local outbreak can be detected by nucleic acid analysis of the hypervariable env region

Exploring psychological mechanisms of collective action: Does relevance of group identity influence how people cope with collective disadvantage?

Two studies examined how the relevance of group identity influences two psychological mechanisms of collective action: Emotion- and problem-focused coping with collective disadvantage. Extending Van Zomeren, Spears, Fischer, and Leach's (2004) integrative theoretical model of coping with collective disadvantage, we predicted that when group identity is more relevant to disadvantaged group members, it increases their collective action tendencies through their feelings of group-based anger about their group's disadvantage. When group identity is less relevant and hence emotion-focused coping processes are less likely, group-efficacy beliefs become more predictive of disadvantaged group members' collective action tendencies because people focus more instrumentally on whether collective action will be effective (and benefit them) or not. A field study and a follow-up experiment both showed that the relevance of group identity facilitated emotion-focused coping and moderated problem-focused coping with collective disadvantage. We discuss these results in terms of two distinct psychological mechanisms of collective action

Comparative Effectiveness of Oxaliplatin vs Non–Oxaliplatin-containing Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Stage III Colon Cancer

The addition of oxaliplatin to adjuvant 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) improves survival of patients with stage III colon cancer in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). However, RCT participants are younger, healthier, and less racially diverse than the general cancer population. Thus, the benefit of oxaliplatin outside RCTs is uncertain

Effect of Adjuvant Chemotherapy on Survival of Patients With Stage III Colon Cancer Diagnosed After Age 75 Years

Few patients 75 years of age and older participate in clinical trials, thus whether adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer (CC) benefits this group is unknown