The Business Cycles of Balance-of-Payment Crises: A Revision of Mundellan Framework

In his seminal 1960 article Robert Mundell proposed a model of balance-of-payments crises in which confidence in the continuation of a currency peg depended on the observed holdings of central bank foreign reserves. We examine the implications of a reformulation of this view from the perspective of an equilibrium business cycle model in which the probability of devaluation is an endogenous variable conditioned on foreign reserves. The model explains some business cycle regularities of exchange-rate-based stabilizations while also producing devaluation probabilities that capture some features of devaluation probabilities estimated in the data. The analysis aims to explain both the real effects and the collapse of temporary fixed-exchange-rate regimes in an unified framework, and provides an economic interpretation for the evidence that foreign reserves are a robust leading indicator of currency crises.

Devaluation Risk and the Syndrome of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations

This paper shows that the risk of devaluation can be an important factor accounting for the stylized facts of exchange-rate-based stabilizations. This conclusion follows from studying the quantitative implications of a two-sector equilibrium business cycle model of a small open economy calibrated to Mexico's 1987-1994 stabilization plan. In the model a time-variant interest rate differential that acts as a stochastic tax on money demand, labor supply, investment, and saving. Under incomplete markets, this tax induces endogenous state-contingent wealth effects via fiscal adjustment and suboptimal investment. Devaluation risk entails large welfare costs in this environment.

Cultivation and anaerobic digestion of Scenedesmus spp. grown in a pilot-scale open raceway

Digestibility of a micro-algal mixture was evaluated by mesophilic anaerobic digestion in continuously-stirred tank reactors. The culture consisted primarily of Scenedesmus spp. continuously cultivated over a 6-month period in a 100 m2 raceway reactor instrumented to record pH, dissolved oxygen and temperature. The raceway received supplementary carbon in the form of flue gas from a diesel boiler (10% CO2) injected into a 1-m deep sump to control pH in the range 7.8–8.0. Dilution was optimised to biomass productivity and gave values of 10–15 and 20–25 g total suspended solids (TSS) m? 2 day? 1 in winter (December–February) and spring (April–May), respectively. The culture for the anaerobic digestion trial was harvested in February by centrifugation to give an algal paste containing 4.3% volatile solids (VS). Semi-continuous digestion at organic loading rates of 2.00, 2.75 and 3.50 g VS l? 1 day? 1 gave volumetric biogas productions of ~ 0.66, ~ 0.83 and ~ 0.99 l l? 1 day? 1, respectively. Specific methane yield ranged from 0.13 to 0.14 l CH4 g? 1 VSadded with biogas methane content ~ 62%. Overall the digestion process was stable, but only ~ 30% VS destruction was achieved indicating low biodegradability, due to the short retention times and the recalcitrant nature of this type of biomas

Desarrollo Turístico : Aplicación de Marketing en el Turismo Cultural del Departamento de León

La aplicación del marketing en el turismo cultural del departamento de León es inherente para cada empresa turística, porque ha sido uno de los principales factores de ingreso económico y generador de empleos, permitiendo permanecer en el mercado turístico con éxito. Se aborda los principios básicos para la elaboración de los objetivos corporativos, los cuales se harán mención en el documento con el propósito que sean dicho objetivo, realista, coherentes y alcanzables. El despliegue de los objetivos deben ser elementos claves en la dirección del marketing turístico cultural del departamento de León, su propósito es mejorar el engarce entre el mercado turístico, desarrollo y aplicación del marketing turístico en las empresas turistas Una medida adecuada para incentivar la demanda turística y consolidar el crecimiento del turismo internacional en un país consiste en mantener una estabilidad socio-política, proyectar una adecuada seguridad ciudadana y conservar cierta coherencia económica, inspirando una imagen de confianza que influya en los turistas. León posee una gran variedad de riquezas culturales que la convierten en un destino con un enorme potencial turístico por desarrollar. Es importante este sector desde el punto de vista económico, debido a que el turismo en el departamento de León es una actividad de mucha jerarquía por su incidencia en el desarrollo nacional, especialmente sobre la redistribución de la renta, sobre la balanza de pagos, sobre el nivel de empleo, sobre el producto interno bruto y sobre las economías regionales

Geophysical mapping of groundwater properties for transport infrastructure construction planning - Final report

The success and costs of infrastructure projects largely depend on reliable characterization of the subsoil, where information on groundwater is essential to protect groundwater resources and to avoid stability problems. To determine the hydrogeological characteristics, drilling is carried out followed by hydraulic tests which are reliable but expensive and provide limited information which, in some cases, may not be representative of the entire area that may be affected. The use of geophysical methods can overcome this problem and by providing continuous information that can be used to optimize well placement and execution. The esults of the drilling and hydraulic tests can then in turn be fed back to improve the interpretation of the geophysical results. It is thereby possible to get more comprehensive and relevant results that reduce the risk of problems in the construction phase, thus saving resources, time and costs. The geoelectrical method DCIP (Direct Current resistivity and time-domain Induced Polarization) can provide information on the intrinsic permeability. In addition, MRS (Magnetic Resonance Sounding) can provide information on the water content and properties of the pore spaces, and thus also information related to the hydraulic conductivity. By combining both methods and using them in a two- or three-dimensional layout, a more comprehensive description of the subsoil is possible. The purpose of the project is to find out how both methods can contribute to a reliable characterisation of the subsoil's hydrogeological properties. The methods were tested alongside conventional tests of the hydraulic conductivity using boreholes, slug tests and HPT (hydraulic profiling tool) to investigate three different test sites. The test sites were chosen to reflect different hydrogeological conditions and to provide access to reference data. Furthermore, their electromagnetic noise level was a crucial factor as it can affect the geophysical results. Measured data were processed, interpreted and compared, to evaluate the geophysical results with regard to hydrogeological information value, as well as robustness in measurement environments with different signal interference conditions. The results show that DCIP tomography provided inverted depth sections with hydraulic conductivity along the survey lines that mostly agree with the reference data from conventional methods at all three test locations. They also show that DCIP is robust enough to give good results along all test lines performed. However, it is not a guarantee that the method works everywhere due to the presence of noise/disturbances, for example in urban environments. It should also be mentioned that the algorithms that have been used for the interpretation of the hydraulic properties are part of research software, and that there is great potential for further development but also a need to adapt the user interface for a wider use. The results also show that MRS can provide information on water content and hydraulic properties that are mainly consistent with the reference data from other methods, thereby providing valuable complementary information. However, MRS measured from the ground surface, as tested here, is significantly more sensitive to electromagnetic interference, which was manifested in the fact that the method only worked fully at one of the test sites while giving limited or no useful results at the other test sites, due to the presence of noise generated by adjacent infrastructure

On the vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands and duration constraints: formulations and a hybrid metaheuristic

International audienceThe vehicle routing problem with stochastic demands (VRPSD) consists in designing transportation routes of minimal expected cost to satisfy a set of customers with random demands of known probability distributions. In this research we present two strategies to deal with route duration constraints in the VRPSD. To solve the resulting problem, we proposed a greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP) with a post optimization procedure. The GRASP component uses a set of randomized route-first, cluster-second heuristics to generate starting solutions and a variable neighborhood descent (VND) procedure to carry on the local search phase. The post optimizer selects the best possible routes to assemble the final solution from the set of all routes found in the local optima reached by the GRASP. We discuss extensive computational experiments analysing the cost of considering route duration constraints on the VRPSD. In addition, we report state-of-the-art solutions for a established set of benchmarks for the classical VRPSD

Unrelieved Pain and Distress in Animals: An Analysis of USDA Data on Experimental Procedures

Pain and distress are core issues in the field of animal experimentation and in the controversy that surrounds it. We sought to add to the empirical base of the literature on pain and distress by examining government data on experimental procedures that caused unrelieved pain and distress (UPAD) in animals. Of the species regulated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), most of the approximately 100,000 animals subjected to UP AD during the year analyzed (1992) were guinea pigs and hamsters. Most of these animals were used in industry laboratories for various testing procedures, primarily vaccine potency testing. We discuss the limitations of the USDA data and recommend changes to the current reporting system. By identifying experimental procedures that cause UPAD in large numbers of USDA-regulated animals, the present analysis can be viewed as a means of identifying priorities for research and development of alternatives methods (replacements, reductions, and refinements)

Grupo sanguíneo AB y RH positivo como factores de riesgo asociados a preeclampsia en el hospital Belén de Trujillo

Determinar si el grupo sanguíneo AB y Rh positivo son factores de riesgo asociados a preeclampsia en el Hospital Belén de Trujillo. Material y Métodos: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de tipo, analítico, observacional, retrospectivo, de casos y controles. La población de estudio estuvo constituida por 700 gestantes según criterios de inclusión y exclusión establecidos distribuidos en dos grupos: con y sin preeclampsia. Resultados: La frecuencia de grupo sanguíneo AB en gestaciones con y sin preeclampsia fue 2% y 1% respectivamente. La frecuencia de factor Rh + en gestaciones con y sin preeclampsia fue 82% y 75% respectivamente. El odss ratio del grupo sanguíneo AB y factor Rh + en relación a preeclampsia fue de 3.55 y 1.50 (p<0.05) respectivamente. Conclusiones: El grupo sanguíneo AB es factor de riesgo asociado a preeclampsia en el Hospital Belén de Trujillo. El factor Rh positivo es factor de riesgo asociado a preeclampsia en el Hospital Belén de Trujillo.Determine if blood groups AB and Rh positive are risk factors associated to preeclampsia at Belen Trujillo Hospital. Methods: Was conduced a analitic, observational, retrospective, cases and controls investigation. The study population was conformed for 700 pregnants women inclusion and exclusion criteries distributed in 2 groups: with or without preeclampsia. Results: The frequency of blood groups AB between with and without preeclampsia were 2% y 1% respectively. The frequency of Rh + factor between with and without preeclampsia were 82% y 75% respectively. Blood groups AB and Rh positive factor odss ratio related to preeclampsia was 3.55 y 1.50 (p<0.05) respectively. Conclusions: Blood group AB is a risk factor associated to preeclampsia at Belen Trujillo Hospital. Rh + factor is a risk factor associated to preeclampsia at Belen Trujillo Hospital.Tesi

Guía de aplicación normalizada de sistema de protección contra incendio de equipos inductivos en 500 kV de la empresa de transmisión ISA REP

En la actualidad los nuevos proyectos que ha ganado ISA Rep de Energía del Perú, el estado peruano está solicitando en los pliegos del concurso la instalación de un sistema de protección contra incendios en los equipos inductivos. Estos sistemas aún no han sido probados para la prevención de explosión de equipos inductivos lo que, conllevando a una inversión muy alta para la protección de este activo, por lo cual dicho sistema debe darse un mantenimiento adecuado para que actué en el momento de presentarse la falla. La presente tesis busca implementar una Guía de Aplicación Normalizada, del Sistema de Protección contra Incendio de Autotransformadores y Reactores de Potencia en 500 kV de la empresa de transmisión. De esta manera la implementación de la Guía se basará en recomendaciones del fabricante del Sistema de protección contra incendios que van de acorde con el Mantenimiento Centrado en Confiabilidad de este sistema. Con la finalidad de mantener la operatividad y confiabilidad del sistema de protección para su correcta actuación en caso ocurra un incendio o posible explosión que deje inoperativo a los equipos inductivos. Además de ser una guía del mantenimiento, también servirá para realizar las pruebas correspondientes y abalar su correcta actuación. El Sistema tiene dos formas de actuación, la de extinción de incendio y de prevención de explosión, de esta manera se reducen los riesgos de daños de personas, impacto en el ambiente, daños de infraestructura y daños a los equipos cercanos. Por lo anteriormente expuesto, se concluye que la implementación de la guía de mantenimiento del sistema de protección contra incendios de los equipos inductivos además de garantizar la correcta actuación del sistema frente a los posibles dos modos de prevención de explosión y extinción.Tesi