The Financial Value of Champagne Houses in a Cobweb Economy

The objective of the paper is to simulate the corporate value of Champagne makers by taking into account the Champagne market evolution. These measurements are conducted by linking financial debt, performance and valuation to a vertical coordination model of production-consumption within a cobweb economy. The overall model uses the dynamic structure that underlies the strategic interactions amongst grape producers and wine makers. These segments coordinate grape production and trade by forming expectations about final consumption, price and stock risks. The paper examines the dynamics of the financial cash flows and net worth of Champagne houses for the 1977 – 2003 period using system dynamics (SD) modeling principles. The results presented in this paper report on key financial indicators for that period for financial debt, performance and valuation of Champagne makers. It provides a sound basis to pursue this work, because the model can further enhanced to anticipate the possible value Champagne makers for the coming crucial years since the Champagne appellation has reached its geographical limit determined by the protected designation of origin (PDO), while worldwide demand continues to grow.financial valuation, vertical coordination, cobweb economy, system dynamics, price expectations, Champagne, wine, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Industrial Organization,

A NONLINEAR MODEL OF INFORMATION AND COORDINATION IN HOG PRODUCTION: TESTING THE COASIAN-FOWLERIAN DYNAMIC HYPOTHESES

The pig-cycle 'explanation' expunded by Coase and Fowler followed a well-integrated economic logic and provides tremendous insight into our understanding of commodity cycles. The paper presents a simulation model that replicates all of Coase and Fowler's results and tests its robustness with an application to U.S. hog production.Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A Model of Regulatory Burden in Technology Diffusion: The Case of Plant-Derived Vaccines.

Plant-derived vaccines may soon displace conventional vaccines. Assuming there are no major technological barriers undermining the feasibility of this innovative technology, it is worthwhile to generate quantitative models of regulatory burden of producing and diffusing plant-derived vaccines in industrialized and developing countries. A dynamic simulation model of technology diffusion—and the data to populate it—has been generated for studying regulatory barriers in the diffusion of plant-derived vaccines. The role of regulatory burden is evaluated for a variety of scenarios in which plant-derived vaccines are produced and diffused. This model relates the innovative and conventional vaccine technologies and the effects of the impact of the uptake of the innovative technology on mortality and morbidity. This case study demonstrates how dynamic simulation models can be used to assess the long-term potential impact of novel technologies in terms of a variety of socio-economic indicators.dynamic simulation model; plant-derived vaccines; regulatory burden; technology transfer; vaccines;

Conceptualising digital transformation in SMEs: an ecosystemic perspective

Purpose: Supported by a service ecosystem that is increasingly immersed into digital transformation, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have access to turnkey information technology (IT) applications, which may come free of charge but not free of concerns. The purpose of this paper is to explore a group conceptualisation and associated perceptions of IT issues within an ecosystem that includes three subgroup profiles: entrepreneurs, IT professionals and socioeconomic support professionals. Design/methodology/approach: Using group concept mapping, a bottom-up and participatory mixed methods-based approach, a concept map was estimated, based on a list of items, to define seven clusters pertaining to issues and challenges of adoption and use of turnkey IT applications in SMEs of less than 20 employees. Perceptions measures of relative importance and feasibility were obtained by subgroup profiles. Findings: The relative importance and relative feasibility measures for the seven clusters indicate significant statistical differences in ratings among the subgroup profiles. A discussion on the importance of relational capital in addressing challenges of digital transformation in SMEs is developed. Originality/value: Results highlight signifiant differences concerning key dimensions in the adoption and use of IT from the perspective of three subgroup profiles of actors within the ecosystem. First, the results stress the need to develop a shared understanding of IT challenges. Second, they suggest policymakers could use these conceptual representations to further develop and strengthen the IT-related support agenda for SMEs, especially the smaller ones (e.g. training programs, business support and coaching initiatives, etc.). © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited

Mathematical Model and Simulation of a Pneumatic Apparatus for In-Drilling Alignment of an Inertial Navigation Unit during Horizontal Well Drilling

Conventional methods in horizontal drilling processes incorporate magnetic surveying techniques for determining the position and orientation of the bottom-hole assembly (BHA). Such means result in an increased weight of the drilling assembly, higher cost due to the use of non-magnetic collars necessary for the shielding of the magnetometers, and significant errors in the position of the drilling bit. A fiber-optic gyroscope (FOG) based inertial navigation system (INS) has been proposed as an alternative to magnetometer -based downhole surveying. The utilizing of a tactical-grade FOG based surveying system in the harsh downhole environment has been shown to be theoretically feasible, yielding a significant BHA position error reduction (less than 100m over a 2-h experiment). To limit the growing errors of the INS, an in-drilling alignment (IDA) method for the INS has been proposed. This article aims at describing a simple, pneumatics-based design of the IDA apparatus and its implementation downhole. A mathematical model of the setup is developed and tested with Bloodshed Dev-C++. The simulations demonstrate a simple, low cost and feasible IDA apparatus

Étude de la pertinence et du coût d'opportunité de l'hormonothérapie

Contexte : Utilisée depuis des décennies afin de contrebalancer les effets indésirables de la ménopause, l'hormonothérapie a connu un choc sans précédent lors de la publication d'une étude de la «Women's Health Initiative» en juillet 2002. Par la suite, nombreuses sont les femmes qui ont changé leur perception envers les hormones de remplacement et par conséquent leur consommation. Objectif : Utiliser ce choc pour quantifier les impacts d'avoir poursuivi ou cessé le traitement, par le biais d'incidence de pathologies. Méthodologie : Une revue de la littérature a été effectuée afin d'identifier les principales maladies associées aux hormones de remplacement. L'échantillon a ensuite été purifié pour éliminer les biais potentiels et déterminer une population représentative. Chaque femme a été classée en fonction de la médication utilisée et la décision de poursuivre ou de cesser l'hormonothérapie suite à la publication de l'étude de la WHI. Par la suite, des modèles de triples différences ont été appliqués afin d'isoler l'impact de l'abandon des hormones de remplacement. Les tests de Wilcoxon et du Chi carré ont respectivement été employés pour les variables continues et dichotomiques afin de calculer les différentes caractéristiques entre les cohortes. Résultats : Les femmes qui ont abandonné Premarin® ont vu augmenter leur risque de développer la maladie de l'Alzheimer, un accident vasculaire cérébral, un cancer du côlon, un cancer du sein, une thromboembolie veineuse, de l'ostéoporose ainsi que des fractures vertébrales et aux hanches, et ce, dans l'année qui suit l'abandon. Par contre, l'arrêt de Premarin® n'a occasionné aucun impact significatif sur l'incidence de l'anxiété, du cancer de l'endomètre, du cancer des ovaires, de la dépression, du diabète de type 2 et des évènements coronariens. Pour ce qui est des femmes qui ont abandonné Prempro®, elles s'exposent à une hausse des risques de contracter un cancer du sein. L'impact de l'abandon de Prempro® s'est révélé non significatif pour l'ensemble des autres maladies analysées. Discussion : Cette analyse sur des données de réclamation s'avère un complément intéressant aux études à double assignation aléatoire, car elle permet de voir l'impact de l'hormonothérapie sur la santé des gens en y intégrant les imperfections que la réalité occasionne. \ud ______________________________________________________________________________ \ud MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : hormonothérapie, ménopause, économétrie, Prempro®, Premarin

Effets électrophysiologiques de l'acide 20-hydroxyeïcosatétraénoïque sur les muscles lisses des voies respiratoires

L'acide 20-hydroxyeïcosatétraénoïque (20-HETE) est un métabolite de l'acide arachidonique produit par les cytochrome P450 [oméga]-hydroxylase. C'est un des eïcosanoïdes qui sont impliqués dans la modulation du tonus des cellules de muscle lisse des voies respiratoires (MLVR). Il a été rapporté que les réponses des muscles lisses au 20-HETE sont différentes selon l'espèce ou le type de tissu sur lequel il est appliqué. Le but de cette étude est de quantifier les effets du 20-HETE sur le tonus et sur les propriétés électrophysiologiques des MLVR de mammifère. Les résultats montrent que le 20-HETE module le tonus des MLVR par l'entremise d'effets électrophysiologiques. De plus l'expression des ARNm des TRPC3, 4, 5 et 6 dans les cellules isolées de MLVR de cobaye et de rat a été vérifiée ce qui supporte l'une de nos conclusions."--Résumé abrégé par UMI

Context and perceptual salience influence the formation of novel stereotypes via cumulative cultural evolution

We use a transmission chain method to establish how context and category salience influence the formation of novel stereotypes through cumulative cultural evolution. We created novel alien targets by combining features from three category dimensions—color, movement, and shape—thereby creating social targets that were individually unique but that also shared category membership with other aliens (e.g., two aliens might be the same color and shape but move differently). At the start of the transmission chains each alien was randomly assigned attributes that described it (e.g., arrogant, caring, confident). Participants were given training on the alien-attribute assignments and were then tested on their memory for these. The alien-attribute assignments participants produced during test were used as the training materials for the next participant in the transmission chain. As information was repeatedly transmitted an increasingly simplified, learnable stereotype-like structure emerged for targets who shared the same color, such that by the end of the chains targets who shared the same color were more likely to share the same attributes (a reanalysis of data from Martin et al., 2014 which we term Experiment 1). The apparent bias toward the formation of novel stereotypes around the color category dimension was also found for objects (Experiment 2). However, when the category dimension of color was made less salient, it no longer dominated the formation of novel stereotypes (Experiment 3). The current findings suggest that context and category salience influence category dimension salience, which in turn influences the cumulative cultural evolution of information.<br/