Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models

Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking

What are the costs of degraded parafoveal previews during silent reading?

It has been suggested that the preview benefit effect is actually a combination of preview benefit and preview costs. Marx et al. (2015) proposed that visually degrading the parafoveal preview reduces the costs associated with traditional parafoveal letter masks used in the boundary paradigm (Rayner,1975), thus leading to a more neutral baseline. We report two experiments of skilled adults reading silently. In Experiment 1, we found no compelling evidence that degraded previews reduced processing costs associated with traditional letter masks. Moreover, participants were highly sensitive to detecting degraded display changes. Experiment 2 utilized the boundary detection paradigm (Slattery, Angele, & Rayner, 2011) to explore whether participants were capable of detecting actual letter changes or if they were responding purely to changes in degradation. Half of the participants were instructed to respond to any noticed display changes; the other half were instructed to respond only to changes in letter identities. Participants were highly sensitive to degraded changes. In fact, these changes were so apparent that they reduced the sensitivity to letter masks. In the context of the model proposed by Angele, Slattery, and Rayner (2016), we suggest that degraded previews interfere with the attentional stage, as evidenced by the general lack of foveal load effects. In summary, we found that increasingly degrading parafoveal letter masks does not reduce their processing costs in adults, but that both degraded valid and invalid previews introduce additional costs in terms of greater display change awareness

Reductions in the dietary niche of southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) from the Holocene to the Anthropocene.

The sea otter (Enhydra lutris) is a marine mammal hunted to near extinction during the 1800s. Despite their well-known modern importance as a keystone species, we know little about historical sea otter ecology. Here, we characterize the ecological niche of ancient southern sea otters (E. lutris nereis) using δ13C analysis and δ15N analysis of bones recovered from archaeological sites spanning ~7,000 to 350 years before present (N = 112 individuals) at five regions along the coast of California. These data are compared with previously published data on modern animals (N = 165) and potential modern prey items. In addition, we analyze the δ15N of individual amino acids for 23 individuals to test for differences in sea otter trophic ecology through time. After correcting for tissue-specific and temporal isotopic effects, we employ nonparametric statistics and Bayesian niche models to quantify differences among ancient and modern animals. We find ancient otters occupied a larger isotopic niche than nearly all modern localities; likely reflecting broader habitat and prey use in prefur trade populations. In addition, ancient sea otters at the most southerly sites occupied an isotopic niche that was more than twice as large as ancient otters from northerly regions. This likely reflects greater invertebrate prey diversity in southern California relative to northern California. Thus, we suggest the potential dietary niche of sea otters in southern California could be larger than in central and northern California. At two sites, Año Nuevo and Monterey Bay, ancient otters had significantly higher δ15N values than modern populations. Amino acid δ15N data indicated this resulted from shifting baseline isotope values, rather than a change in sea otter trophic ecology. Our results help in better understanding the contemporary ecological role of sea otters and exemplify the strength of combing zooarchaeological and biological information to provide baseline data for conservation efforts

Mechanical suppression of osteolytic bone metastases in advanced breast cancer patients: A randomised controlled study protocol evaluating safety, feasibility and preliminary efficacy of exercise as a targeted medicine

Background: Skeletal metastases present a major challenge for clinicians, representing an advanced and typically incurable stage of cancer. Bone is also the most common location for metastatic breast carcinoma, with skeletal lesions identified in over 80% of patients with advanced breast cancer. Preclinical models have demonstrated the ability of mechanical stimulation to suppress tumour formation and promote skeletal preservation at bone sites with osteolytic lesions, generating modulatory interference of tumour-driven bone remodelling. Preclinical studies have also demonstrated anti-cancer effects through exercise by minimising tumour hypoxia, normalising tumour vasculature and increasing tumoural blood perfusion. This study proposes to explore the promising role of targeted exercise to suppress tumour growth while concomitantly delivering broader health benefits in patients with advanced breast cancer with osteolytic bone metastases. Methods: This single-blinded, two-armed, randomised and controlled pilot study aims to establish the safety, feasibility and efficacy of an individually tailored, modular multi-modal exercise programme incorporating spinal isometric training (targeted muscle contraction) in 40 women with advanced breast cancer and stable osteolytic spinal metastases. Participants will be randomly assigned to exercise or usual medical care. The intervention arm will receive a 3-month clinically supervised exercise programme, which if proven to be safe and efficacious will be offered to the control-arm patients following study completion. Primary endpoints (programme feasibility, safety, tolerance and adherence) and secondary endpoints (tumour morphology, serum tumour biomarkers, bone metabolism, inflammation, anthropometry, body composition, bone pain, physical function and patient-reported outcomes) will be measured at baseline and following the intervention. Discussion: Exercise medicine may positively alter tumour biology through numerous mechanical and nonmechanical mechanisms. This randomised controlled pilot trial will explore the preliminary effects of targeted exercise on tumour morphology and circulating metastatic tumour biomarkers using an osteolytic skeletal metastases model in patients with breast cancer. The study is principally aimed at establishing feasibility and safety. If proven to be safe and feasible, results from this study could have important implications for the delivery of this exercise programme to patients with advanced cancer and sclerotic skeletal metastases or with skeletal lesions present in haematological cancers (such as osteolytic lesions in multiple myeloma), for which future research is recommended. Trial registration: anzctr.org.au, ACTRN-12616001368426. Registered on 4 October 2016

Amelioration of root disease of subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) by mineral nutrients

Subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum) is a key pasture legume across southern Australia and elsewhere. Decline in subterranean clover pastures was first recognised in Australia during the 1960s and manifests as an increase in weeds and a decrease in desirable legume species. While both root disease and poor nutrition contribute to subterranean clover pasture decline, the relationships between root disease and nutrition have not been determined. The objective of this study was to define these relationships. Field experiments were undertaken to determine the nutritional and pathogen status of soils and subterranean clover from three Western Australian field sites. Subsequently, controlled environment experiments were undertaken to determine the relative severities of tap and lateral root disease and growth of plants when soil cores taken from these three field sites were amended with a complete nutrient solution or a range of individual macro- or micronutrient treatments. Application of a ‘Hoaglands’ complete nutrient solution decreased the severity of tap root disease by an average of 45% and lateral root disease by 32%. Amendment with K alone reduced the severity of tap root disease an average of 32%; while the application of N alone reduced the severity of tap root disease by 33% and lateral root disease by 27%. Application of Hoaglands, K, N or Zn increased shoot and root dry weight, while Mo only increased shoot dry weight. This is the first report to show that mineral nutrients can substantially ameliorate root disease in subterranean clover. The results demonstrate that while root disease limits plant growth, improvement in the nutritional status of nutrient-impoverished soils can significantly reduce root disease. There is significant potential to incorporate nutrient amendments into an integrated and more sustainable approach to better manage root disease and to increase productivity of pasture legumes where soils are inherently nutrient deficient in one or more nutrients

Upland Peatlands of Eastern Australia as Important Water Storage Reservoirs

The Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area contains over 5,000 ha of peat forming upland swamps (n = 1,858) and numerous freshwater lagoons and lakes such as the Thirlmere Lakes southwest of Sydney. These systems are well known for their water storage capacity, even during dry spells. Here we use peat depth measurements and water content calculations to quantify potential water storage capacity within Lake Baraba in the Thirlmere Lakes National Park. We fi nd that total water storage capacity of the peat in Lake Baraba is 150±17.3 ML. We also calculate total water storage of peat-forming upland swamps across the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area which totals ~60,600 ±33,500 ML. The implications of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the water storage and supply functions of these systems as part of the Sydney water supply catchment provides a strong case for their conservation

The Use of Maintenance Electroconvulsive Therapy for Relapsing Depression

It is generally accepted that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is an effective treatment of major depressive episodes in patients with both unipolar and bipolar affective disorders (1). Yet, repeated relapse of depression occurs in some patients, even with vigorous maintenance therapy on antidepressant drugs (2-4). This often necessitates rehospitalization for ECT. In past decades, several authors suggested that periodic outpatient ECT was efficacious as a maintenance therapy (5-7). Recently, maintenance ECT was recommended by Fink (8), and Maletzky (9), but barely mentioned in two reviews (10,11), and discouraged in another (12) . However, a recent nationwide survey has disclosed that such therapy is widely practiced (13)

Responsibility modelling for civil emergency planning

This paper presents a new approach to analysing and understanding civil emergency planning based on the notion of responsibility modelling combined with HAZOPS-style analysis of information requirements. Our goal is to represent complex contingency plans so that they can be more readily understood, so that inconsistencies can be highlighted and vulnerabilities discovered. In this paper, we outline the framework for contingency planning in the United Kingdom and introduce the notion of responsibility models as a means of representing the key features of contingency plans. Using a case study of a flooding emergency, we illustrate our approach to responsibility modelling and suggest how it adds value to current textual contingency plans

Superfluid Helium Tanker (SFHT) study

Replenishment of superfluid helium (SFHe) offers the potential of extending the on-orbit life of observatories, satellite instruments, sensors and laboratories which operate in the 2 K temperature regime. A reference set of resupply customers was identified as representing realistic helium servicing requirements and interfaces for the first 10 years of superfluid helium tanker (SFHT) operations. These included the Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF), the Advanced X-ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF), the Particle Astrophysics Magnet Facility (Astromag), and the Microgravity and Materials Processing Sciences Facility (MMPS)/Critical Point Phenomena Facility (CPPF). A mixed-fleet approach to SFHT utilization was considered. The tanker permits servicing from the Shuttle cargo bay, in situ when attached to the OMV and carried to the user spacecraft, and as a depot at the Space Station. A SFHT Dewar ground servicing concept was developed which uses a dedicated ground cooling heat exchanger to convert all the liquid, after initial fill as normal fluid, to superfluid for launch. This concept permits the tanker to be filled to a near full condition, and then cooled without any loss of fluid. The final load condition can be saturated superfluid with any desired ullage volume, or the tank can be totally filed and pressurized. The SFHT Dewar and helium plumbing system design has sufficient component redundancy to meet fail-operational, fail-safe requirements, and is designed structurally to meet a 50 mission life usage requirement. Technology development recommendations were made for the selected SFHT concept, and a Program Plan and cost estimate prepared for a phase C/D program spanning 72 months from initiation through first launch in 1997

Development and validation of the DIabetes Severity SCOre (DISSCO) in 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Clinically applicable diabetes severity measures are lacking, with no previous studies comparing their predictive value with glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c). We developed and validated a type 2 diabetes severity score (the DIabetes Severity SCOre, DISSCO) and evaluated its association with risks of hospitalization and mortality, assessing its additional risk information to sociodemographic factors and HbA1c. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used UK primary and secondary care data for 139 626 individuals with type 2 diabetes between 2007 and 2017, aged ≥35 years, and registered in general practices in England. The study cohort was randomly divided into a training cohort (n=111 748, 80%) to develop the severity tool and a validation cohort (n=27 878). We developed baseline and longitudinal severity scores using 34 diabetes-related domains. Cox regression models (adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, and HbA1c) were used for primary (all-cause mortality) and secondary (hospitalization due to any cause, diabetes, hypoglycemia, or cardiovascular disease or procedures) outcomes. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests were fitted to assess the significance of adding DISSCO to the sociodemographics and HbA1c models. RESULTS: A total of 139 626 patients registered in 400 general practices, aged 63±12 years were included, 45% of whom were women, 83% were White, and 18% were from deprived areas. The mean baseline severity score was 1.3±2.0. Overall, 27 362 (20%) people died and 99 951 (72%) had ≥1 hospitalization. In the training cohort, a one-unit increase in baseline DISSCO was associated with higher hazard of mortality (HR: 1.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.15, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC)=0.76) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR: 1.45, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.46, AUROC=0.73). The LR tests showed that adding DISSCO to sociodemographic variables significantly improved the predictive value of survival models, outperforming the added value of HbA1c for all outcomes. Findings were consistent in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of DISSCO are associated with higher risks for hospital admissions and mortality. The new severity score had higher predictive value than the proxy used in clinical practice, HbA1c. This reproducible algorithm can help practitioners stratify clinical care of patients with type 2 diabetes