Calibration of a wind wave hindcast (1958-2008) in the Western Mediterranean using buoy data

Trabajo presentado en la EGU General Assemby 2012, celebrada del 22 al 27 de septiembre de 2012 en Viena (Austria)Peer Reviewe

Decadal variability of European sea level extremes in relation to the solar activity

This study investigates the relationship between decadal changes in solar activity and sea level extremes along the European coasts and derived from tide gauge data. Autumn sea level extremes vary with the 11 year solar cycle at Venice as suggested by previous studies, but a similar link is also found at Trieste. In addition, a solar signal in winter sea level extremes is also found at Venice, Trieste, Marseille, Ceuta, Brest, and Newlyn. The influence of the solar cycle is also evident in the sea level extremes derived from a barotropic model with spatial patterns that are consistent with the correlations obtained at the tide gauges. This agreement indicates that the link to the solar cycle is through modulation of the atmospheric forcing. The only atmospheric regional pattern that showed variability at the 11 year period was the East Atlantic pattern

Impact of the atmospheric climate modes on wave climate in the North Atlantic

Trabajo presentado en la EGU General Assemby 2014, celebrada del 27 de abril al 2 de mayo de 2014 en Viena (Austria)This study establishes the relationships between the mean modes of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and present wave climate. The modes considered, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic Western Russian pattern (EA/WR) and the Scandinavian pattern (SCAN), are obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre. The wave data sets used consist of buoy records and two high-resolution simulations of significant wave height (SWH), mean wave period (MWP) and mean wave direction (MWD) forced with ERA-40 (1958-2002) and ERA-INTERIM (1989-2008) wind fields. The results show the winter impact of each mode on wave parameters which are discussed regionally. The NAO and EA pattern increase winter SWH up to 1 m per unit index at the Scottish and Spanish coasts, respectively, during their positive phase; while EA pattern causes clockwise changes of winter MWD up to more than 60 degrees per unit index at the Bay of Biscay during its negative phase. EA/WR and SCAN patterns have a weaker impactPeer Reviewe

Regional marine climate scenarios in the NE Atlantic sector close to the Spanish shores

[EN] We present an overview of the changes expected during the 21st century in key marine parameters (sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, sea level and waves) in the sector of the NE Atlantic Ocean close to the Spanish shores. Under the A1B scenario, open-sea surface temperatures would increase by 1°C to 1.5°C by 2050 as a consequence of global ocean warming. Near the continental margin, however, the global temperature rise would be counteracted by an enhancement of the seasonal upwelling. Sea surface salinity is likely to decrease in the future, mainly due to the advection of high-latitude fresher waters from ice melting. Mean sea level rise has been quantified as 15-20 cm by 2050, but two contributions not accounted for by our models must be added: the mass redistribution derived from changes in the large-scale circulation (which in the NE Atlantic may be as large as 15 cm in 2050 or 35 cm by 2100) and the increase in the ocean mass content due to the melting of continental ice (for which estimates are still uncertain). The meteorological tide shows very small changes, and therefore extreme sea levels would be higher in the 21st century, but mostly due to the increase in mean sea level, not to an increase in the storminess. The wave projections point towards slightly smaller significant wave heights, but the changes projected are of the same order as the natural variability.[ES]En este trabajo se presenta una visión de conjunto de los cambios esperados en el siglo XXI en los principales parámetros marinos (temperatura y salinidad superficiales, nivel del mar y oleaje) en el sector NE del Océano Atlántico más cercano a las costas españolas. Bajo el escenario A1B, se prevé que la temperatura superficial en mar abierto suba del orden de 1-1.5°C para el año 2050, como consecuencia del calentamiento global del océano. Cerca del margen continental, sin embargo, el aumento de la temperatura superficial podría ser contrarrestado por un aumento del afloramiento estacional. La salinidad superficial es probable que disminuya en el futuro, debido principalmente a la advección desde latitudes más altas de aguas provenientes de la fusión de hielos polares. El aumento del nivel del mar obtenido de los modelos se ha cuantificado en 15 a 20 cm para el año 2050, pero esa estima no incluye dos contribuciones adicionales que deben ser añadidas: la redistribución de masa derivada de los cambios en la circulación a gran escala (que en el Atlántico NE se ha estimado en unos 15 cm para 2050 i en 35 cm para 2100) y el aumento de masa debido a la fusión de hielos continentales (para el cual las estimas son todavía inciertas). La marea meteorológica muestra cambios muy pequeños, y por tanto el aumento de los niveles extremos del mar en el siglo XXI serán debidos principalmente al aumento del nivel medio, no a un aumento en la intensidad de las tormentas. Las proyecciones de oleaje apuntan a olas de altura significante ligeramente más pequeñas; de todos modos, los cambios proyectados son del mismo orden que la variabilidad natural.The computational work of this paper was carried out in the framework of two projects: VANIMEDAT-2 (CTM2009-10163-C02-01), funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) and the E-Plan of the Spanish Government; and ESCENARIOS, funded by the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET). Some of the analysis and summary efforts were carried out in the framework of the subsequent project CLIMPACT (CGL2014-54246-C2-1-R), also funded by MINECO

Vulnerabilidad de los puertos españoles ante el cambio climático. Vol. 1: Tendencias de variables físicas oceánicas y atmosféricas durante las últimas décadas y proyecciones para el siglo XXI

La presente publicación, el primer volumen de dos libros previstos sobre el tema, se centra en describir los resultados de los trabajos que se han realizado desde Puertos del Estado, el IMEDEA y AEMET para la caracterización de la evolución de las variables climáticas a lo largo del Siglo XXI. Los datos expuestos son el resultado de un enorme esfuerzo de computación numérica establecido a lo largo de 7 años en una serie de proyectos de investigación financiados por el Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad y por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y su generación ha sido también posible gracias a la colaboración con multitud de centros internacionales de referencia, como MeteoFrance y Mercatorocean en Francia, o el National Oceanography Centre, en Reino Unido. Estos trabajos se enmarcan, además, en la estrategia española sobre cambio climático, y están coordinados con las actividades de la Oficina Española de Cambio Climático

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Impact of large-scale atmospheric variability on sea level and wave climate

This thesis aims at quantitatively characterizing the recent (last few decades) and future climate variability of marine climate in the Western Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean. Namely it focuses on sea level and wind-waves, as these are the variables with a larger potential impact on coastal ecosystems and infrastructures. We first use buoy and altimetry data to calibrate a 50-year wind-wave hindcast over the Western Mediterranean in order to obtain the best characterization of the wave climate over that region. The minimization of the differences with respect to observations through a non-linear transformation of the Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the modelled fields results in an improvement of the hindcast, according to a validation test carried out with independent observations. We then focus on the relationship between the large scale atmospheric forcing and our target variables. Namely we quantify and explore the cause-effect relations between the major modes of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic and Europe, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic pattern, the East Atlantic Western Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern, and both the Mediterranean sea level and the North Atlantic wave climate. To do so, we use data from different sets of observations and numerical models, including tide gauges, wave buoys, altimetry, hydrography and numerical simulations. Our results point to the North Atlantic Oscillation as the mode with the largest impact on both, Mediterranean sea level (due to the local and remote influence on its atmospheric component) and the North Atlantic wave climate (due to its effect on both the wind-sea and swell components). Other climate indices have smaller but still meaningful contributions; e.g. the East Atlantic pattern plays a significant role in the wave climate variability through its impact on the swell component. Finally, we explore the performance of statistical models to project the future wave climate over the North Atlantic under global warming scenarios, including the large scale climate modes as predictors together with other variables such as atmospheric pressure and wind speed. Notably, we highlight that the use of wind speed as statistical predictor is essential to reproduce the dynamically projected long-term trends.Esta tesis caracteriza cuantitativamente la variabilidad climática reciente (las últimas décadas) y futura del clima marino en el Mar Mediterráneo y en el Océano Atlántico Norte. Concretamente, se centra en el nivel del mar y en el oleaje, ya que éstas son las variables con un mayor impacto potencial en ecosistemas e infraestructuras costeras. En primer lugar, utilizamos datos de boyas y altimetría para calibrar un hindcast de oleaje de 50 años en el Mediterráneo Occidental, con el objetivo de obtener la mejor caracterización climática del oleaje sobre esta región. La minimización de las diferencias con respecto a las observaciones a través de una transformación no lineal de las Funciones Empíricas Ortogonales de los campos modelados se traduce en una mejora del hindcast, de acuerdo al test de validación llevado a cabo con observaciones independientes. Luego nos centramos en las relaciones entre el forzamiento atmosférico de gran escala y nuestras variables de interés. En concreto, cuantificamos y exploramos las relaciones causa-efecto entre los modos de variabilidad atmosférica más importantes del Atlántico Norte y Europa (la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte, el patrón del Atlántico Oriental, el patrón del Atlántico Oriental/Rusia Occidental y el patrón Escandinavo) y el nivel del mar del Mediterráneo y el oleaje del Atlántico Norte. Para ello, usamos datos de diferentes conjuntos de observaciones y modelos numéricos, incluyendo mareógrafos, boyas de oleaje, altimetría, hidrografía y simulaciones numéricas. Nuestros resultados señalan la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte como el modo de mayor impacto, tanto en el nivel del mar del Mediterráneo (debido a la influencia local y remota en su componente atmosférica) como en el oleaje del Atlántico Norte (debido a su efecto en las componentes de mar de viento y de mar de fondo). Otros índices climáticos tienen contribuciones más pequeñas pero todavía significativas; e.g. el patrón del Atlántico Oriental juega un papel importante en la variabilidad del oleaje a través de su impacto en la componente de mar de fondo. Finalmente, exploramos la capacidad de los modelos estadísticos de proyectar el clima futuro del oleaje sobre el Atlántico Norte bajo escenarios de calentamiento global, incluyendo los modos climáticos de gran escala como predictores junto con otras variables como la presión atmosférica y la velocidad del viento. En particular, destacamos que el uso de la velocidad del viento como predictor estadístico es esencial para reproducir las tendencias a largo plazo proyectadas de por los modelos dinámicos

Impact of large-scale atmospheric variability on sea level and wave climate

Peer Reviewe

Impact of North Atlantic atmospheric climate modes on Mediterranean sea level: projections for the 21st century

Trabajo presentado en la European Geosciences Union General Assembly, celebrada en Viena, Austria, del 7 al 12 de abril de 2013Peer Reviewe

XXI century wind wave projections for the Spanish shores. mean regime and extreme events

Trabajo presentado en el International Symposium CLIMATE-ES, celebrado en Tortosa, España, del 11 al 13 de marzo de 2015Peer Reviewe