Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.consumer confidence, yield spreads, expected real activity, economic sentiment indicator

El régimen de transmisión voluntaria de participaciones sociales inter vivos

Traballo Fin de Grao e Dereito Público Especial e da Empresa (Curso 2016/2017)El presente trabajo realiza un análisis sobre la transmisión voluntaria de participaciones sociales por actos inter vivos . Se centra en la sociedad de responsabilidad limitada y en las especificidades exigidas por el Real Decreto Legislativo 1/2010, de 2 de julio, por el que se aprueba el texto refundido de la Ley de Sociedades de Capital para dicha operación. Se trata de un estudio sobre la naturaleza del negocio transmisivo de participaciones sociales , de la posición jurídica del socio en este tipo de sociedad, del posible régimen estatutario y del régimen supletorio establecido en el texto legal anteriormente citado. Asimismo, se establecen las limitaciones que los socios deben soportar sobre la autonomía de su voluntad y las controversias existentes acerca de todo este régimen de transmisión

Secuencias didácticas para la construcción de saberes complejos en la enseñanza inicial de la lengua escrita

Esta comunicación pretende mostrar que, más allá de la enseñanza de los elementos gráficos, la alfabetización inicial se apoya en la elaboración de textos y significados insertados en situaciones de comunicación social complejas, que no sólo son posibles en las aulas de los más pequeños sino que son necesarias para dar verdadero cuerpo de naturaleza al aprendizaje de la lectura y la escritura. Por un lado, la implementación del currículo de educación infantil supone concebir el aula como un espacio privilegiado para potenciar la autonomía personal, en el que se confíe en las capacidades del niño y donde las actividades estén cargadas de intencionalidad educativa. Así pues, el aula ha de ser ante todo un sistema complejo, dinámico y adaptativo y estimulante, capaz de facilitar y sugerir múltiples posibilidades de acción en el que el lenguaje sea pieza clave. Sobre el lenguaje, oral y escrito, se va construyendo el pensamiento y la capacidad de codificar y decodificar la realidad y la propia experiencia, así como la capacidad de aprender. Para acceder y apropiarse de esa realidad que envuelve al niño hay que manejar situaciones sociales y textos complejos y realizar operaciones mentales de alto nivel, que van más allá de las tareas simples de acceso al código desprovistas de significatividad y de intencionalidad comunicativa. Por ello, partimos de la base de que las actividades de alfabetización inicial no se circunscriben a “los métodos”, por lo que proponemos el modelo de elaboración de secuencias didácticas. Estas posibilitan que los alumnos establezcan una relación consciente y voluntaria con un texto; que se formen una representación de la actividad de escritura como la elaboración progresiva de un producto de trabajo colaborativo. Suponen un trabajo simultáneo de adquisición de información para expresar o interpretar el texto escrito y de aprendizaje del género que trasmite dicha información.This paper aims to show that, beyond teaching the graphic elements, initial literacy is supported by the elaboration of texts and meanings embedded in complex social communication, which are not only possible in the classrooms of the smaller but They are necessary to give true body of nature to learning reading and writing. On the one hand, the implementation of early childhood curriculum involves conceiving the classroom as a privileged space to promote personal autonomy, which is rely on the abilities of the child and where the activities are full of educational purpose. Thus, the classroom must be above all a complex, dynamic and adaptive and stimulating, capable of facilitating and suggest many possibilities of action in which the language is instrumental system. On Language, oral and written, it is built thinking and the ability to encode and decode reality and experience, as well as the ability to learn. To access and appropriate the reality that surrounds the child must handle social situations and complex text and perform high-level mental operations, which go beyond simple tasks access code devoid of significance and communicative intention. Therefore, we start from the premise that early literacy activities are not confined to "methods", we propose the development of model sequences. These enable students to make a conscious and voluntary relationship with a text; a representation of the activity of writing as the progressive development of a product of collaborative work form. Involve simultaneous data acquisition work to express or interpret written and gender learning that transmits the information text

The voice of birth families to improve visits in foster care

In foster care, contact visits with birth families play an important role in relation to the child’s wellbeing, and they may impact on placement outcomes. However, the views of birth parents with respect to such visits have largely been unexplored. This research is part of a project financed by the regional government of Andalusia (SEJ-7106) regarding contact visits in foster care. This study aims to give voice to parents and gather their views about contact visits, including how they might be improved. Participants were 23 birth families who had contact visits with 35 children in non-kinship foster care. Semi-structured individual interviews were conducted in order to explore two key aspects: the parents’ opinions regarding the contact visits and the main areas they felt needed improving. The interviews were transcribed and the transcripts were examined using an inductive method of open coding to identify themes among participants’ responses. The main themes to emerge concerned their general view of contact visits and the organization of visits. The paper discusses the study’s implications of the findings for practice.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Corporate social responsibility as a strategic shield against costs of earnings management practices

We highlight how Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) can be strategically used against the negative perception from earnings management (EM). Using international data, we analyse the effect of CSR and EM on the cost of capital and corporate reputation. Results confirm that CSR strategy is positively valued by investors and other stakeholders. Contrary to EM, CSR has a positive effect on corporate reputation and lowers the cost of capital. In addition, we also find that the favorable effect of CSR on cost of capital is consistently more intense in firms that show signs of EM indicating that the market does not identify when CSR practices are used as a strategy to mask EM. We also demonstrate how institutional factors influence the above relationship

Testing for signif cant differences between two spatial patterns using covariates

This is the accepted manuscript of the following article: Borrajo, M., González-Manteiga, W., & Martínez-Miranda, M. (2019). Testing for significant differences between two spatial patterns using covariates. Spatial Statistics, 100379. doi: 10.1016/j.spasta.2019.100379This paper addresses the problem of comparing the spatial distribution of two point patterns. A formal statistical test is proposed to decide whether two observed patterns share the same theoretical intensity model. This underlying model assumes that the first-order intensity function of the process generating the patterns may depend on covariate information. The test statistic consists of an $L_2$-distance between two kernel estimators for the corresponding relative density, which is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis assuming that the underlying process is Poisson. In practice a suitable bootstrap method is proposed to calibrate the test. Simulations are used to explore the ability of the proposed test to identify different spatial patterns. An application to the analysis of wildfires in Canada shows the practicality of the proposal, with appealing conclusions regarding to the need of including covariate informationS