Ampliación y Mejora del Laboratorio Virtual de Meteorología y Clima

Depto. de Física de la Tierra y AstrofísicaFac. de Ciencias FísicasFALSEsubmitte

Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions

Little is known about the distribution of ice in the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Whereas marine and terrestrial geological data indicate that the grounded ice advanced to a position close to the continental-shelf break, the total ice volume is unclear. Glacial boundary conditions are potentially important sources of uncertainty, in particular basal friction and climatic boundary conditions. Basal friction exerts a strong control on the large-scale dynamics of the ice sheet and thus affects its size and is not well constrained. Glacial climatic boundary conditions determine the net accumulation and ice temperature and are also poorly known. Here we explore the effect of the uncertainty in both features on the total simulated ice storage of the AIS at the LGM. For this purpose we use a hybrid ice sheet shelf model that is forced with different basal drag choices and glacial background climatic conditions obtained from the LGM ensemble climate simulations of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). Overall, we find that the spread in the simulated ice volume for the tested basal drag parameterizations is about the same range as for the different general circulation model (GCM) forcings (4 to 6 m sea level equivalent). For a wide range of plausible basal friction configurations, the simulated ice dynamics vary widely but all simulations produce fully extended ice sheets towards the continental-shelf break. More dynamically active ice sheets correspond to lower ice volumes, while they remain consistent with the available constraints on ice extent. Thus, this work points to the possibility of an AIS with very active ice streams during the LGM. In addition, we find that the surface boundary temperature field plays a crucial role in determining the ice extent through its effect on viscosity. For ice sheets of a similar extent and comparable dynamics, we find that the precipitation field determines the total AIS volume. However, precipitation is highly uncertain. Climatic fields simulated by climate models show more precipitation in coastal regions than a spatially uniform anomaly, which can lead to larger ice volumes. Our results strongly support using these paleoclimatic fields to simulate and study the LGM and potentially other time periods like the last interglacial. However, their accuracy must be assessed as well, as differences between climate model forcing lead to a large spread in the simulated ice volume and extension

Bancarización y el crédito fiscal en las empresas ferreteras del distrito de Independencia, año 2017

Este trabajo de investigación, fue determinar la relación entre la bancarización y el crédito fiscal en las empresas ferreteras, Independencia 2018. La consideración de esta investigación radica desde que el contribuyente ejecuta sus afirmaciones y todo el tiempo muestra crédito fiscal por tener más grande comprobante de pago de compras, por esto la Gestión Tributaria por medio de la evaluación de lo proclamado puede pedir una fiscalización Para saber si el crédito del IGV es verdadera y valido. La investigación se trabajó con la teoría la Necesidad Popular de Manuel Andreozzi, diputado Nacional de Argentina; presidente de la Cámara de Diputados; Ministro de Gobierno de Justicia e Instrucción Pública. Conformados del Libro Derechos Tributarios donde ejecuta un aporte científico, donde examina que la sociedad tiene pretensiones y de las cuales además perjudica a los ciudadanos. El tipo de investigación correlacional, el diseño de la investigación es no en fase de prueba transversal correlacional, con una muestra 81 compañías del sector ferretero del distrito de Independencia. La técnica que se utilizó es la encuesta y el instrumento de recolección de datos, el cuestionario fue aplicado a las compañías comercializadoras ferreteras. Para la validez de los instrumentos se utilizó el método de juicios de profesionales y además está respaldado por la utilización del Alfa de Cronbach; la comprobación de las hipótesis llevó a cabo con la prueba del RHO de Spearman. En la presente investigación se llegó a la conclusión que Existe relación entre bancarización y el crédito fiscal del IGV en las empresas ferreteras en el distrito de Independencia, año 2017

Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping

Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) describes the fact that, for multistable dynamic systems, an abrupt transition can take place not only because of the forcing magnitude, but also because of the forcing rate. In the present work, we demonstrate through the case study of a piecewise-linear oscillator (PLO), that increasing the rate of forcing can make the system tip in some cases but might also prevent it from tipping in others. This counterintuitive effect is further called non-monotonous R-tipping (NMRT) and has already been observed in recent studies. We show that, in the present case, the reason for NMRT is the peak synchronisation of oscillatory responses operating on different time scales. We further illustrate that NMRT can be observed even in the presence of additive white noise of intermediate amplitude. Finally, NMRT is also observed on a van-der-Pol oscillator with an unstable limit cycle, suggesting that this effect is not limited to systems with a discontinuous right-hand side such as the PLO. This insight might be highly valuable, as the current research on tipping elements is shifting from an equilibrium to a dynamic perspective while using models of increasing complexity, in which NMRT might be observed but hard to understand

Description and validation of the ice-sheet model Yelmo (version 1.0)

We describe the physics and features of the ice-sheet model Yelmo, an open-source project intended for collaborative development. Yelmo is a thermomechanical model, solving for the coupled velocity and temperature solutions of an ice sheet simultaneously. The ice dynamics are currently treated via a “hybrid” approach combining the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf/shelfy-stream approximations, which makes Yelmo an apt choice for studying a wide variety of problems. Yelmo's main innovations lie in its flexible and user-friendly infrastructure, which promotes portability and facilitates long-term development. In particular, all physics subroutines have been designed to be self-contained, so that they can be easily ported from Yelmo to other models, or easily replaced by improved or alternate methods in the future. Furthermore, hard-coded model choices are eschewed, replaced instead with convenient parameter options that allow the model to be adapted easily to different contexts. We show results for different ice-sheet benchmark tests, and we illustrate Yelmo's performance for the Antarctic ice sheet

Glacial/Interglacial simulations with an Earth System model of intermediate complexity

This is a contribution to the project TIC-MOC (CTM2011-28867) funded by the 2008-2011 Spanish R+D Plan. C. Herrero acknowledges a CSIC JAE-Predoc scholarship co-financed by the European Social Fund (FSE) and wishes to thank all PalMA group members for their help and kindnessPeer Reviewe

A new approach for simulating the paleo-evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Offline forcing methods for ice-sheet models often make use of an index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial-interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from the Greenland ice-core temperature reconstruction, with present-day climatologies. An important drawback of this approach is that it clearly misrepresents climate variability at millennial timescales. The reason for this is that the spatial glacial-interglacial anomaly field used is associated with orbital climatic variations, while it is scaled following the characteristic time evolution of the index, which includes orbital and millennial-scale climate variability. The spatial patterns of orbital and millennial variability are clearly not the same, as indicated by a wealth of models and data. As a result, this method can be expected to lead to a misrepresentation of climate variability and thus of the past evolution of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. Here we illustrate the problems derived from this approach and propose a new offline climate forcing method that attempts to better represent the characteristic pattern of millennial-scale climate variability by including an additional spatial anomaly field associated with this timescale. To this end, three different synthetic transient forcing climatologies are developed for the past 120 kyr following a perturbative approach and are applied to an ice-sheet model. The impact of the climatologies on the paleo-evolution of the NH ice sheets is evaluated. The first method follows the usual index approach in which temperature anomalies relative to the present are calculated by combining a simulated glacial-interglacial climatic anomaly field, interpolated through an index derived from ice-core data, with present-day climatologies. In the second approach the representation of millennial-scale climate variability is improved by incorporating a simulated stadial-interstadial anomaly field. The third is a refinement of the second one in which the amplitudes of both orbital and millennial-scale variations are tuned to provide perfect agreement with a recently published absolute temperature reconstruction over Greenland. The comparison of the three climate forcing methods highlights the tendency of the usual index approach to overestimate the temperature variability over North America and Eurasia at millennial timescales. This leads to a relatively high NH ice-volume variability on these timescales. Through enhanced ablation, this results in too low an ice volume throughout the last glacial period (LGP), below or at the lower end of the uncertainty range of estimations. Improving the representation of millennial-scale variability alone yields an important increase in ice volume in all NH ice sheets but especially in the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS). Optimizing the amplitude of the temperature anomalies to match the Greenland reconstruction results in a further increase in the simulated ice-sheet volume throughout the LGP. Our new method provides a more realistic representation of orbital and millennial-scale climate variability and improves the transient forcing of ice sheets during the LGP. Interestingly, our new approach underestimates ice-volume variations on millennial timescales as indicated by sea-level records. This suggests that either the origin of the latter is not the NH or that processes not represented in our study, notably variations in oceanic conditions, need to be invoked to explain millennial-scale ice-volume fluctuations. We finally provide here both our derived climate evolution of the LGP using the three methods as well as the resulting ice-sheet configurations. These could be of interest for future studies dealing with the atmospheric and oceanic consequences of transient ice-sheet evolution throughout the LGP and as a source of climate input to other ice-sheet models

La variabilidad de la circulación meridiana del océano atlántico en simulaciones del último milenio con el modelo climático de circulación general ECHO-G

Ponencia presentada en: XXX Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el IX Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Zaragoza, del 5 al 7 de mayo de 2008.En este trabajo se analiza la variabilidad de la AMOC a partir de varias simulaciones realizadas con el Modelo ECHO-G: una simulación de control de mil años (CTRL), dos simulaciones forzadas del último milenio (FOR1 y FOR2) y dos simulaciones forzadas de los escenarios de futuro A2 y B2

Heinrich event 1: an example of dynamical ice-sheet reaction to oceanic changes

Heinrich events, identified as enhanced ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in North Atlantic deep sea sediments (Heinrich, 1988; Hemming, 2004) have classically been attributed to Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS) instabilities (MacAyeal, 1993; Calov et al., 2002; Hulbe et al., 2004) and assumed to lead to important disruptions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation. However, recent paleoclimate data have revealed that most of these events probably occurred after the AMOC had already slowed down or/and NADW largely collapsed, within about a thousand years (Hall et al., 2006; Hemming, 2004; Jonkers et al., 2010; Roche et al., 2004), implying that the initial AMOC reduction could not have been caused by the Heinrich events themselves. Here we propose an alternative driving mechanism, specifically for Heinrich event 1 (H1; 18 to 15 ka BP), by which North Atlantic ocean circulation changes are found to have strong impacts on LIS dynamics. By combining simulations with a coupled climate model and a three-dimensional ice sheet model, our study illustrates how reduced NADW and AMOC weakening lead to a subsurface warming in the Nordic and Labrador Seas resulting in rapid melting of the Hudson Strait and Labrador ice shelves. Lack of buttressing by the ice shelves implies a substantial ice-stream acceleration, enhanced ice-discharge and sea level rise, with peak values 500–1500 yr after the initial AMOC reduction. Our scenario modifies the previous paradigm of H1 by solving the paradox of its occurrence during a cold surface period, and highlights the importance of taking into account the effects of oceanic circulation on ice-sheets dynamics in order to elucidate the triggering mechanism of Heinrich events.Peer reviewe