Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series

Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time-series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve about an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time-series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques. On the other hand, proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity. Wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity. In this paper, we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study to two lingering puzzles in the political science literature: the existence to cycles in election returns in the United States and in the severity of major power wars.

Synchronism in Electoral Cycles: How United are the United States?

The role of national, sectional, state, and local forces in driving electoral outcomes in the United States has remained a matter of considerable indeterminacy in the American politics literature. In what concerns House elections, different approaches and methods have yielded widely divergent results. In what concerns presidential elections, considerable doubts remain about the timing and the plausible causes of a long-term trend towards homogeneity. In this paper, we take a new look at the nationalization of politics in the United States. We are particularly interested in the dynamic nationalization in presidential elections, i.e., the extent to which swings and shifts from one election to the next have been similar across states and whether or not that similarity has increased through time. We treat this problem as one of similarity or dissimilarity — and convergence or divergence of — electoral cycles, and use wavelets analysis in order to ascertain the degree to which the national and state election cycles have been synchronized and the degree to which that synchronization has increased or decreased. We determine, first, the states where electoral change has been more in sync with the national cycle and clusters of states defined in terms of the mutual synchronization of their own electoral cycles. Second, we analyze how the degree of synchronization of electoral cycles in the states has changed through time, answering questions as to when, to what extent, and where has the tendency towards a “universality of political trends” in presidential elections been more strongly felt. We present evidence strongly in favor of an increase in the dynamic nationalization of presidential elections taking place in the 1950s, showing that alternative interpretations concerning the historical turning point in this respect are not supported by empirical evidence.

Physiological response of Cistus salviifolius L. to high arsenic concentrations

Arsenic is a trace element found in the environment which can be particularly toxic to living organisms. However, some plant species such as those of the genus Cistus are able to grow in soils with high As concentrations and could be used in the sustainable rehabilitation of mining areas 19 through phytostabilization. In this work, the growth and the physiological response of Cistus salviifolius L. to As induced oxidative stress at several concentrations (reaching 30 mg L-1) in an hydroponic system were evaluated for 30 days. Several growth parameters, chlorophyll content, chemical composition, one indicator of oxidative stress (H2O2) and two of the major anti-oxidative metabolites (ascorbate and glutathione) were analyzed. The toxic effect of As was better perceived in the plants submitted to treatments with concentrations of 20 and 30 mg As L-1. Plants subjected to these treatments had higher concentration of As in roots and shoots. The concentrations of Ca, Mg, K and Fe in the plants, as well as a large part of the evaluated growth parameters were also affected. Arsenic did not interfere with the ability of the plant to perform photosynthesis, as there were no significant differences in the contents of chlorophyll a, b and total between the different treatments. Plants from all treatments accumulated higher amount of As in roots than in shoots, and it was also in the roots that the concentrations of H2O2, AsA and GSH were higher. Cistus salviifolius showed high tolerance to As up to the concentration of 5 mg L-1, which makes it a species with high potential to be used in the phytostabilization of soils contaminated with As and presenting high concentrations of the element in the soil solution.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Flavonoids Of Lonchocarpus Montanus A.m.g. Azevedo And Biological Activity.

The analysis of root extracts from Lonchocarpus montanus A.M.G. Azevedo resulted in the isolation of twenty three compounds chiefly flavonoids of which five (four flavonoids and one benzophenone) are described for the first time. The molecular structures of the new compounds (1-5) were determined through spectral analysis (UV, IR, MS and NMR) as being: 2'-hydroxy-8-(alpha,alpha-dimethylallyl)-2, 2-dimethylpyrano-(5,6:3',4')-dibenzoylmethane (1), 2'-methoxy-8-(alpha,alpha-dimethylallyl)-2, 2-dimethylpyrano-(5,6:3',4')-dibenzoylmethane (2), 4'-methoxy-2,2-dimethylpyrano-(5,6:8,7)-flavone (3), 2-(1-hydroxy-1-methylethyl)-furano-(4,5:8,7)-flavone (4) and [2'-methoxy-furano-(4,5:3',4')-phenyl]-phenylmethanone (5). Additionally, fifteen fatty acids were detected through GC-MS analysis of the corresponding methyl esters [(CH3)2CH(CH2)8COOH and CH3(CH2)nCOOH (n = 6, 12-24)]. Quantitative RP-HPLC showed that the most abundant flavonoids in the petroleum ether and dichloromethane extracts were pongamol (19%) and lanceolatine B (8.0%), respectively. In the bioautography assay, the extracts, pongamol (9), lanceolatine B (10), isolonchocarpin (14), derriobtusone A (17) and medicarpine (18) were active against Staphylococcus aureus whereas 9 also against Bacillus subtilis and Cladosporium cladosporioides. Compound 1, 2,2-dimethylpyrano-(5,6:8,7)-flavone (11) and furano-(1200,1300:7,8)- 4'-methoxy flavone (12) were active against Fusarium oxysporium whereas 11 also against Rhizopus orizae. The extracts, compounds 9, 10, 17 and (E)-7-O-methoxypongamol (23) displayed high toxicity in the brine shrimp lethality assay.79351-6

Jovens que estudam e empreendem, quando estas ações se imbricam

Resumo: Esta pesquisa se propõe a buscar conhecimento sobre as/os jovens estudantes da Educação Básica que empreendem por oportunidade e /ou necessidade. Com isto pretende-se saber quais motivações e saberes são mobilizados por jovens estudantes da educação básica para empreenderem no mercado informal? Sendo assim, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa é conhecer os motivos e saberes mobilizados pelas/os jovens estudantes para empreenderem no seu cotidiano. E os objetivos específicos são: descrever o perfil sócio econômico cultural de jovens estudantes, considerando os marcadores sociais de gênero, raça, classe, sexualidades e religiosidade; compreender os motivos que levam jovens a empreenderem no mercado informal; conhecer os tipos de saber fazer acionados por estas/es jovens em suas produções empreendedoras; identificar as criações/invenções de jovens. Para atingir estes objetivos o procedimento metodológico será a observação participativa, entrevistas semiestruturadas, a busca e registro das histórias de vida. O aporte teórico dar-se-á através de autores como: Agamben, Bachelard, Bulgacov, Deleuze, Derrida, Diógenes, Filgueiras, Foucault, Gil, Ginzburg, hooks, Kleiman, Lima, Messeder, Santos, Soares, Spósito, Street. A partir dos dados obtidos, após contato com estas pessoas, serão acrescentadas outras leituras teóricas. Espera-se que esta pesquisa possa proporcionar maior conhecimento sobre a juventude, seus letramentos e empreendimentos na educação básica e contribuir para a adoção de políticas públicas neste segmento, de forma que estes jovens tenham oportunidades de escolhas. Além disso, contribuir com a literatura para estudos sobre jovens de classes não abastadas.Palavras-chave: Juventude empreendedora. Letramento. Informalidad

Jovens que estudam e empreendem, quando estas ações se imbricam

Resumo: Esta pesquisa se propõe a buscar conhecimento sobre as/os jovens estudantes da Educação Básica que empreendem por oportunidade e /ou necessidade. Com isto pretende-se saber quais motivações e saberes são mobilizados por jovens estudantes da educação básica para empreenderem no mercado informal? Sendo assim, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa é conhecer os motivos e saberes mobilizados pelas/os jovens estudantes para empreenderem no seu cotidiano. E os objetivos específicos são: descrever o perfil sócio econômico cultural de jovens estudantes, considerando os marcadores sociais de gênero, raça, classe, sexualidades e religiosidade; compreender os motivos que levam jovens a empreenderem no mercado informal; conhecer os tipos de saber fazer acionados por estas/es jovens em suas produções empreendedoras; identificar as criações/invenções de jovens. Para atingir estes objetivos o procedimento metodológico será a observação participativa, entrevistas semiestruturadas, a busca e registro das histórias de vida. O aporte teórico dar-se-á através de autores como: Agamben, Bachelard, Bulgacov, Deleuze, Derrida, Diógenes, Filgueiras, Foucault, Gil, Ginzburg, hooks, Kleiman, Lima, Messeder, Santos, Soares, Spósito, Street. A partir dos dados obtidos, após contato com estas pessoas, serão acrescentadas outras leituras teóricas. Espera-se que esta pesquisa possa proporcionar maior conhecimento sobre a juventude, seus letramentos e empreendimentos na educação básica e contribuir para a adoção de políticas públicas neste segmento, de forma que estes jovens tenham oportunidades de escolhas. Além disso, contribuir com a literatura para estudos sobre jovens de classes não abastadas.Palavras-chave: Juventude empreendedora. Letramento. Informalidad

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy-detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time-to-detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time-to-first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval-censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time-to-detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval-censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P-values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval-censored time-to-detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy-detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologistsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Cadmium effects on net N2O production by the deep-sea isolate Shewanella loihica PV-4

Deep-sea mining may lead to the release of high concentrations of metals into the surrounding seabed, which can disturb important ecosystem functions provided by microbial communities. Among these, the production of N2O and its reduction to N2 is of great relevance since N2O is an important greenhouse gas. Metal impacts on net N2O production by deep-sea bacteria are, however, currently unexplored. Here, we evaluated the effects of cadmium (Cd) on net N2O production by a deep-sea isolate, Shewanella loihica PV-4. We performed a series of Cd exposure incubations in oxic conditions and determined N2O fluxes during induced anoxic conditions, as well as the relative expression of the nitrite reductase gene (nirK), preceding N2O production, and N2O reductase gene (nosZ), responsible for N2O reduction. Net N2O production by S. loihica PV-4 exposed to Cd was strongly inhibited when compared to the control treatment (no metal). Both nirK and nosZ gene expression were inhibited in reactors with Cd, but nirK inhibition was stronger, supporting the lower net N2O production observed with Cd. The Cd inhibition of net N2O production observed in this study poses the question whether other deep-sea bacteria would undergo the same effects. Future studies should address this question as well as its applicability to complex communities and other physicochemical conditions, which remain to be evaluated.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio