A simulation interface designed for improved user interaction and learning in water quality modelling software

Traditional simulation software that supports management decisions is configured and run by experienced scientists. However, it is often criticised for its lack of interactivity, not only in the application of decisions but also in the display of results. This paper presents the simulation interface of software with management strategy evaluation capabilities and its capacity to enable resource managers to learn about water quality management as evaluated in a workshop setting. The software ‘MSE Tool’ is not intended to produce definitive real-world advice but provides a test-bed for managers to interactively design strategies and explore the complexities inherent to water quality management using a simple, yet effective, user interface. MSE Tool has been used in a pilot application that simulated the effects of management strategies applied in catchments and their effects on riverine, estuarine and marine water quality in South East Queensland, Australia. The approach and the software are suitable for reuse in other management strategy evaluation projects

Assessing the Impact of Stakeholder Engagement in Management Strategy Evaluation

After completing a large, regional, multi-use Management Strategy Evaluation, we attempt to assess the impact of stakeholder engagement on the project. We do so by comparing the original project plan to the actual project development and highlight the changes which can be more directly related to stakeholder engagement aided by the application of a logic model for program evaluation. The impact can be summarised into four broad classes: a) change in the actual project development; b) a measurable change in the network of interactions both stakeholders (which includes researchers); c) changes in how the computer model was developed and run; and d) changes in attitudes among stakeholders (including researchers). We discuss these changes, the way they have been detected and some lessons we learnt which may benefit future Management Strategy Evaluation projects

Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula

The marine ecosystem of the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) extends from the Bellingshausen Sea to the northern tip of the peninsula and from the mostly glaciated coast across the continental shelf to the shelf break in the west. The glacially sculpted coastline along the peninsula is highly convoluted and characterized by deep embayments that are often interconnected by channels that facilitate transport of heat and nutrients into the shelf domain. The ecosystem is divided into three subregions, the continental slope, shelf and coastal regions, each with unique ocean dynamics, water mass and biological distributions. The WAP shelf lies within the Antarctic Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and like other SIZs, the WAP system is very productive, supporting large stocks of marine mammals, birds and the Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba. Ecosystem dynamics is dominated by the seasonal and interannual variation in sea ice extent and retreat. The Antarctic Peninsula is one among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, having experienced a 28C increase in the annual mean temperature and a 68C rise in the mean winter temperature since 1950. Delivery of heat from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has increased significantly in the past decade, sufficient to drive to a 0.68C warming of the upper 300 m of shelf water. In the past 50 years and continuing in the twenty-first century, the warm, moist maritime climate of the northern WAP has been migrating south, displacing the once dominant cold, dry continental Antarctic climate and causing multi-level responses in the marine ecosystem. Ecosystem responses to the regional warming include increased heat transport, decreased sea ice extent and duration, local declines in icedependent Ade´lie penguins, increase in ice-tolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins, alterations in phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition and changes in krill recruitment, abundance and availability to predators. The climate/ecological gradients extending along theWAPand the presence of monitoring systems, field stations and long-term research programmes make the region an invaluable observatory of climate change and marine ecosystem response

Marine ecosystem-based management as a hierarchical control system

Although many jurisdictions have embraced ecosystem-based management for the marine environment, it is unclear what this entails in terms of both theory and practical action. I examine the management of complex systems in industrial control as a source of practical guidance on how to approach the ideals of marine ecosystem management. Industrial control systems focus on objectives and outcomes, are hierarchical and localise and distribute control tasks. The principles of hierarchical control systems and focussing on ecosystem services helps overcome the conceptual difficulties with ecosystem management while retaining the idea of a holistic approach to managing human impacts.Marine ecosystem management Integrated marine management Hierarchical control

Taking account of dependent species in management of the Southern Ocean krill fishery: estimating crabeater seal abundance off east Antarctica

1. The crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga is considered to be a key species in the krill-based food web of the Southern Ocean. Reliable estimates of the abundance of this species are necessary to allow the development of multispecies, predator–prey models as a basis for management of the krill fishery in the Southern Ocean. 2. A survey of crabeater seal abundance was undertaken in 1500 000 km2 of pack-ice off east Antarctica between longitudes 64–150° E during the austral summer of 1999/2000. Sighting surveys, using double observer line transect methods, were conducted from an icebreaker and two helicopters to estimate the density of seals hauled out on the ice in survey strips. Satellite-linked dive recorders were deployed on a sample of seals to estimate the probability of seals being hauled out on the ice at the times of day when sighting surveys were conducted. Model-based inference, involving fitting a density surface, was used to infer densities in the entire survey region from estimates in the surveyed areas. 3. Crabeater seal abundance was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.4 million animals (with 95% confidence), with the most likely estimate slightly less than 1 million. 4. Synthesis and applications. The estimation of crabeater seal abundance in Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) management areas off east Antarctic where krill biomass has also been estimated recently provides the data necessary to begin extending from single-species to multispecies management of the krill fishery. Incorporation of all major sources of uncertainty allows a precautionary interpretation of crabeater abundance and demand for krill in keeping with CCAMLR’s precautionary approach to management. While this study focuses on the crabeater seal and management of living resources in the Southern Ocean, it has also led to technical and theoretical developments in survey methodology that have widespread potential application in ecological and resource management studies, and will contribute to a more fundamental understanding of the structure and function of the Southern Ocean ecosystem

Managing fisheries to conserve the Antarctic marine ecosystem: practical implementation of the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR)

We aim to identify the important steps in the evolution of the ecosystem approach to management under the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). The first section provides the background to CCAMLR, including the formulation of the convention and its objectives, its operation, and the historical trends in fisheries. Later sections describe (i) the reasons why a precautionary approach to setting catch limits evolved, (ii) how the precautionary approach takes account of ecosystem objectives and provides for the orderly development of new fisheries, and (iii) how the use of ecosystem indicators in the setting of catch limits and for monitoring the effects of fishing is being evaluated. The final section describes the general framework being used to develop a feedback-management system that incorporates objectives, target species assessments and ecosystem assessments. The CCAMLR experience provides two important lessons. First, conservation objectives can only be achieved by implementing management measures, even when very little is known. Second, methods were found for achieving scientific consensus despite the uncertainties surrounding estimates of parameters and the behaviour of the system. CCAMLR is yet to face the real test in its ecosystem approach, the development of the krill fishery. Before this occurs, appropriate management procedures have to be developed to avoid localized effects on the ecosystem and to provide effective feedbacks on the effects of fishing through its monitoring programme