Future scenarios and conservation strategies for a rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra Arnold in Italian central Apennines

Aim of study: To forecast the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of Black pine of Villetta Barrea in its natural range and to define a possible conservation strategy for the species Area of study: A rear-edge marginal population of Pinus nigra spp. nigra in Abruzzo region, central Italian Apennines Matherials and Methods: For its adaptive and genetic traits this population is considered endemic of the Italian peninsula and represents a rear-edge marginal population of nigra subspecies. The spatial distribution of the tree in the administrative Region (Abruzzo) was used to define the ecological traits while three modelling techniques (GLM, GAM, Random Forest) were used to build a Species distribution model according to two climatic scenarios. Main results: The marginal population's range was predicted to shift at higher elevations as consequence of climatic adaptation. Many zones, represented by the higher part of the mountains surrounding the study area (currently bare and inhospitable for trees), were identified as suitable in future for the species. However, in the case of a rapid climate change, this marginal population may not be able to move as fast as necessary. An in-situ adaptive management integrated with an assisted migration protocol might be considered to enforce the natural regeneration and improve the richness and variability of the genetic pool. Research highlights: Most of the genetic richness is held in small populations at the borders of natural distribution of forest species. Monitoring this MAP could be useful to understand the adaptive processes of the species and could support the future management of many other within-core populations. Keywords: Species Distribution Models; Mediterranean forests; Abruzzo; climate change; altitudinal shift

Stand structure and influence of climate on growth trends of a marginal forest population of Pinus nigra spp. nigra

The Black pine of Villetta Barrea (Pinus nigra ssp. nigra var italica) is a variety of the nigra subspecies. It is naturally distributed only in the Abruzzo Region, near the village of Villetta Barrea, with a rear-edge marginal population.  A dendrochronological sampling of the population was implemented with the aim of studying its stand structure and the most probable interactions between growth trends and climate. Mensurational data were used to characterize the stand and, furthermore, the general correlation function (CF) and the moving correlation function (MCF), with a 30 years window, were used to assess the interrelation between the growth of the tree rings and the climate.The results indicated that the past forest management, mainly carried out with thinnings from below and selective cuttings, influenced the current structure of the forest (mean diameter) but no differences in growth trends were detected within the population.The survey on Villetta Barrea Black pine showed a positive and statistically significant correlation between the ring-width and the average temperatures of the months of December (before the ring formation - t-1), February and March; but it also showed a negative correlation with the temperatures of July, September and October of the current year (t).Moreover, the analysis with moving correlation functions suggested that, in the last decades, the population has negatively reacted to very few climate factors and, in particular, to the changes in temperatures (both minimum and maximum temperatures). This is especially true for the shifts occurred in September, the year of the ring formation.</p

Classifying silvicultural systems (coppices vs. high forests) in Mediterranean oak forests by Airborne Laser Scanning data

Forest classification by silvicultural systems (coppices vs. high forests) is important for forest resource assessment as such systems relate to a wide variety of ecosystem services. In this paper the potential of Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data for Mediterranean oak forests classification of coppices with standards vs. high forests was investigated in three study areas in Italy. We addressed the following issues: can coppices and high forests be distinguished using a raster Canopy Height Model (CHM)? Which are the most efficient CHM-derived metrics? Does the scale of analysis influence the classification potential of CHM metrics? Our results show that CHM in grid format (1-m2 pixel) provides support information to classify silvicultural systems

Adoption of new silvicultural methods in Mediterranean forests: the influence of educational background and sociodemographic factors on marker decisions

Producción Científica- Key message The adoption of new silvicultural methods and approaches requires an understanding of the differences between those and “old” or “conventional” approaches, along with extensive training to break previous knowledge bias. - Context Forestry is in transition towards ecosystem-based management, and new silvicultural approaches are appearing worldwide. However, the adoption of an alternative silvicultural approach is difficult in practice. - Aims We analyzed the effect of forestry background and demographic variables (gender and age) of 24 raters on the application of the systemic approach (SA) and the conventional approach (CA) in the Northern Apennines (Italy) and compared this with tree marking performed by experts. - Methods Data were analyzed as raters’ departures from experts’ selections at the stand and the individual tree level. The probability of tree selection was also calculated. - Results At the stand level, raters with forestry background performed the SA as if they were marking for crown thinning, whereas the CA was less intense than experts’ crown thinning. Non-foresters differentiated poorly between the SA and the CA. At the individual tree level, background and gender affected tree selection. - Conclusion The adoption of the SA as a silvicultural system may be conditioned by previous knowledge. The difference between SA and CA remains unclear when it comes to non-foresters. Gender was a more important variable than age in selecting which trees would be harvested

Risk of Covid-19 severe outcomes and mortality in migrants and ethnic minorities compared to the general population in the european WHO region. A systematic review

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a major impact on migrants and ethnic minorities (MEMs). Socio-economic factors and legal, administrative and language barriers are among the reasons for this increased susceptibility. The aim of the study is to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on MEMs compared to the general population in terms of serious outcomes. We conducted a systematic review collecting studies on the impact of Covid-19 on MEMs compared to the general population in the WHO European Region regarding hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality, published between 01/01/2020 and 19/03/2021. Nine researchers were involved in selection, study quality assessment and data extraction. Of the 82 studies included, 15 of the 16 regarding hospitalisation for Covid-19 reported an increased risk for MEMs compared to the white and/or native population and 22 out of the 28 studies focusing on the ICU admission rates found an increased risk for MEMs. Among the 65 studies on mortality, 43 report a higher risk for MEMs. An increased risk of adverse outcomes was reported for MEMs. Social determinants of health are among the main factors involved in the genesis of health inequalities: a disadvantaged socio-economic status, a framework of structural racism and asymmetric access to healthcare are linked to increased susceptibility to the consequences of Covid-19. These findings underline the need for policymakers to consider the socio-economic barriers when designing prevention plans

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in migrants and ethnic minorities compared with the general population in the European WHO region during the first year of the pandemic. A systematic review

Background: Migrants and ethnic minorities have suffered a disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the general population from different perspectives. Our aim was to assess specifically their risk of infection in the 53 countries belonging to the World Health Organization European Region, during the first year of the pandemic. Methods: We conducted a systematic review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines (PROSPERO CRD42021247326). We searched multiple databases for peer-reviewed literature, published on Medline, Embase, Scisearch, Biosis and Esbiobase in 2020 and preprints from PubMed up to 29/03/2021. We included cross-sectional, case-control, cohort, intervention, case-series, prevalence or ecological studies, reporting the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among migrants, refugees, and ethnic minorities. Results: Among the 1905 records screened, 25 met our inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. We found that migrants and ethnic minorities during the first wave of the pandemic were at increased exposure and risk of infection and were disproportionately represented among COVID-19 cases. However, the impact of COVID-19 on minorities does not seem homogeneous, since some ethnic groups seem to be more at risk than others. Risk factors include high-risk occupations, overcrowded accommodations, geographic distribution, social deprivation, barriers to access to information concerning preventive measures (due to the language barrier or to their marginality), together with biological and genetic susceptibilities. Conclusions: Although mixed methods studies will be required to fully understand the complex interplay between the various biological, social, and cultural factors underlying these findings, the impact of structural determinants of health is evident. Our findings corroborate the need to collect migration and ethnicity-disaggregated data and contribute to advocacy for inclusive policies and programmatic actions tailored to reach migrants and ethnic minorities

Integrated forest management to prevent wildfires under Mediterranean environments

This review presents a multidisciplinary framework for integrating the ecological, regulatory, procedural and technical aspects of forest management for fi res prevention under Mediterranean environments. The aims are to: i) provide a foreground of wildfi re scenario; ii) illustrate the theoretical background of forest fuel management; iii) describe the available fuel management techniques and mechanical operations for fi re prevention in forest and wildland-urban interfaces, with exemplifi cation of case-studies; iv)allocate fi re prevention activities under the hierarchy of forest planning. The review is conceived as an outline commentary discussion targeted to professionals, technicians and government personnel involved in forestry and environmental management

Exploring the genetics of irritable bowel syndrome: A GWA study in the general population and replication in multinational case-control cohorts

OBJECTIVE: IBS shows genetic predisposition, but adequately powered gene-hunting efforts have been scarce so far. We sought to identify true IBS genetic risk factors by means of genome-wide association (GWA) and independent replication studies. DESIGN: We conducted a GWA study (GWAS) of IBS in a general population sample of 11\u2005326 Swedish twins. IBS cases (N=534) and asymptomatic controls (N=4932) were identified based on questionnaire data. Suggestive association signals were followed-up in 3511 individuals from six case-control cohorts. We sought genotype-gene expression correlations through single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-expression quantitative trait loci interactions testing, and performed in silico prediction of gene function. We compared candidate gene expression by real-time qPCR in rectal mucosal biopsies of patients with IBS and controls. RESULTS: One locus at 7p22.1, which includes the genes KDELR2 (KDEL endoplasmic reticulum protein retention receptor 2) and GRID2IP (glutamate receptor, ionotropic, delta 2 (Grid2) interacting protein), showed consistent IBS risk effects in the index GWAS and all replication cohorts and reached p=9.31 710(-6) in a meta-analysis of all datasets. Several SNPs in this region are associated with cis effects on KDELR2 expression, and a trend for increased mucosal KDLER2 mRNA expression was observed in IBS cases compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that general population-based studies combined with analyses of patient cohorts provide good opportunities for gene discovery in IBS. The 7p22.1 and other risk signals detected in this study constitute a good starting platform for hypothesis testing in future functional investigations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions