Long-Term Stroke Risk Prediction in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation:Comparison of the ABC-Stroke and CHA2DS2-VASc Scores

Background The ABC ‐stroke score (age, biomarkers [N‐terminal fragment B‐type natriuretic peptide, high‐sensitivity troponin], and clinical history [prior stroke/transient ischemic attack]) was proposed to predict stroke in atrial fibrillation ( AF ). This score was derived/validated in 2 clinical trial cohorts in which patients with AF were highly selected and carefully followed‐up. However, the median follow‐up was 1.9 years in the trial cohort; therefore, its long‐term predictive performance remains uncertain. This study aimed to compare the long‐term predictive performances of the ABC ‐stroke and CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]—vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) scores in a cohort of anticoagulated patients with AF. Methods and Results We recruited 1125 consecutive patients with AF who were stable on vitamin K antagonists and followed‐up for a median of 6.5 years. ABC ‐stroke and CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]—vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) scores were calculated and compared. Median CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c and ABC ‐stroke scores were 4 (interquartile range 3–5) and 9.1 (interquartile range 7.3–11.3), respectively. There were 114 ischemic strokes (1.55% per year) at 6.5 years. The C‐index of ABC ‐stroke at 3.5 years was significantly higher than CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c (0.663 versus 0.600, P =0.046), but both C‐indexes were nonsignificantly different at 6.5 years. Integrated discrimination improvement showed a small improvement (&lt;2%) in sensitivity at 3.5 and 6.5 years with ABC ‐stroke. For ABC ‐stroke, net reclassification improvement was nonsignificantly different at 3.5 years, and showed a negative reclassification at 6.5 years compared with CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c. Decision curve analyses did not show a marked improvement in clinical usefulness of the ABC ‐stroke score over the CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c score. Conclusions In anticoagulated patients with AF followed‐up over a long‐term period, the novel ABC ‐stroke score does not offer significantly better predictive performance compared with the CHA 2 DS 2 ‐ VAS c score. </jats:sec

Anticoagulantes orales directos frente a antagonistas de la vitamina K en pacientes del «mundo real» con fibrilación auricular no valvular: estudio FANTASIIA

Observational study[Abstract] Introduction and objectives: To compare the long-term results of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) vs vitamin K antagonists (VKA) in real-world-patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in a nationwide, prospective study. Methods: The FANTASIIA registry prospectively included outpatients with AF anticoagulated with DOAC or VKA (per protocol, proportion of VKA and DOAC 4:1), consecutively recruited from June 2013 to October 2014 in Spain. The incidence of major events was analyzed and compared according to the anticoagulant treatment received. Results: A total of 2178 patients were included in the study (mean age 73.8±9.4 years), and 43.8% were women. Of these, 533 (24.5%) received DOAC and 1645 (75.5%) VKA. After a median follow up of 32.4 months, patients receiving DOAC vs those receiving VKA had lower rates of stroke-0.40 (95%CI, 0.17-0.97) vs 1.07 (95%CI,0.79-1.46) patients/y, P=.032-, severe bleedings-2.13 (95%CI, 1.45-3.13) vs 3.28 (95%CI, 2.75-3.93) patients/y; P = .044-, cardiovascular death-1.20 (95%CI, 0.72-1.99) vs 2.45 (95%CI, 2.00-3.00) patients/y; P = .009-, and all-cause death-3.77 (95%CI, 2.83-5.01) vs 5.54 (95%CI, 4.83-6.34) patients/y; P = .016-. In a modified Cox regression model by the Andersen-Gill method for multiple events, hazard ratios for patients receiving DOAC were: 0.42 (0.16-1.07) for stroke; 0.47 (0.20-1.16) for total embolisms; 0.76 (0.50-1.15) for severe bleedings; 0.67 (0.39-1.18) for cardiovascular death; 0.86 (0.62-1.19) for all-cause death, and 0.82 (0.64-1.05) for the combined event consisting of stroke, embolism, severe bleeding, and all-cause death. Conclusions: Compared with VKA, DOAC is associated with a trend to a lower incidence of all major events, including death, in patients with NVAF in Spain.[Resumen] Introducción y objetivos. Comparar los resultados a largo plazo de los anticoagulantes orales directos (ACOD) frente a los antagonistas de la vitamina K (AVK) en pacientes del mundo real con fibrilación auricular no valvular (FANV) en un estudio nacional prospectivo. Métodos. El estudio FANTASIIA incluyó consecutivamente a pacientes ambulatorios con FANV anticoagulados con ACOD o AVK desde junio de 2013 hasta octubre de 2014. Se compararon las tasas de eventos según el anticoagulante administrado. Resultados. Se incluyó a 2.178 pacientes (edad, 73,8 ± 9,4 años; el 43,8% mujeres); de ellos, 533 (24,5%) recibían ACOD y 1.645 (75,5%), AVK. Tras una mediana de seguimiento de 32,4 meses, los pacientes con ACOD tuvieron tasas más bajas de ictus —0,40 (IC95%, 0,17-0,97) frente a 1,07 (IC95%, 0,79-1,46) pacientes/año; p = 0,032—, hemorragias mayores —2,13 (IC95%, 1,45-3,13) frente a 3,28 (IC95%, 2,75-3,93) pacientes/año; p = 0,044—, muerte cardiovascular —1,20 (IC95%, 0,72-1,99) frente a 2,45 (IC95%, 2,00-3,00) pacientes/año; p = 0,009— y muerte total —3,77 (IC95%, 2,83-5,01) frente a 5,54 (IC95%, 4,83-6,34) pacientes/año; p = 0,016—. En el análisis de Cox modificado según el método de Andersen-Gill para datos con múltiples eventos, las razones de riesgos instantáneos para los pacientes con ACOD fueron 0,42 (0,16-1,07) para el ictus; 0,47 (0,20-1,16) para la embolia sistémica en general; 0,76 (0,50-1,15) para las hemorragias mayores; 0,67 (0,39-1,18) para la muerte cardiovascular; 0,86 (0,62-1,19) para la mortalidad total y 0,82 (0,64-1,05) para el combinado de ictus, embolias, hemorragias mayores y muerte. Conclusiones. El tratamiento con ACOD se asocia con una tendencia a una menor tasa de todos los eventos graves, incluida la mortalidad, en relación con los AVK en pacientes con FANV en España

Estimated absolute effects on efficacy and safety outcomes of using non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in 'real-world' atrial fibrillation patients:A comparison with optimally acenocoumarol anticoagulated patients

Background Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have been proposed as an alternative to vitamin K antagonists (VKA) for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Some studies have proposed that well-managed warfarin therapy is still a valid alternative as efficacious as NOACs but the potential impact and absolute effect of NOACs in “real world” optimally management of VKA AF patients is unknown. Purpose To estimate the potential absolute benefit in clinical outcome rates if the optimally anticoagulated “real-world” AF patients with acenocoumarol had been treated with NOACs. Methods We included 1361 patients stable on acenocoumarol with a time in therapeutic range of 100% for the previous 6 months and 6.5 years of follow-up. The estimation of clinical events avoided was calculated applying absolute risk reductions, relative risk reductions and hazard ratios from the pivotal clinical trials, relative to acenocoumarol. Results Compared to acenocoumarol, the highest estimated event reduction for stroke was seen with dabigatran 150 mg, with an estimated reduction of 0.53%/year. For major bleeding, the highest estimated reduction was seen with apixaban (0.88%/year). For mortality, the largest estimated reduction was with dabigatran 150 mg (0.75%/year). In net clinical outcome, apixaban had the estimated highest reduction (1.23%/year). All NOACs showed significantly lower rates for intracranial haemorrhage. Conclusion In optimally acenocoumarol anticoagulated AF patients, estimated reductions in stroke, bleeding and net clinical outcomes with various NOACs are evident. NOACs would potentially show an improvement even among optimally VKA AF patients

Prediction of long-term net clinical outcomes using the TIMI-AF score::Comparison with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED

The TIMI-AF score was described to predict net clinical outcomes (NCOs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving warfarin. However, this score derived from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, and no external validation exists in real world clinical practice. We tested the long-term predictive performance of the TIMI-AF score in comparison with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in a ‘real-world’ cohort of anticoagulated AF patients.MethodsWe included 1156 consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist (INR 2.0-3.0) during 6 months. The baseline risk of NCOs (composite of stroke, life-threatening bleeding, or all-cause mortality) was calculated using the novel TIMI-AF score. During follow-up, all NCOs were recorded and the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of TIMI-AF was compared with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.ResultsDuring 6.5 years (IQR 4.3-7.9), there were 563 NCOs (7.49%/year). ‘Low-risk’ (6.07%/year) and ‘medium-risk’ (9.49%/year) patients defined by the TIMI-AF suffered more endpoints that low- and medium-risk patients of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (2.37%/year and 4.40%/year for low risk; 3.48%/year and 6.39%/year for medium risk, respectively). The predictive performance of TIMI-AF was not different from CHA2DS2-VASc (0.678 vs 0.677, P = .963) or HAS-BLED (0.644 vs 0.671, P = .054). Discrimination and reclassification did not show improvement of prediction using the TIMI-AF score, and decision curves analysis did not demonstrate higher net benefit.ConclusionsIn VKA-experienced AF patients, the TIMI-AF score has limited usefulness predicting NCOs over a long-term period of follow-up. This novel score was not superior to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED identifying low-risk AF patients

Influence of sex on long-term prognosis in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants. Results from the prospective, nationwide FANTASIIA study

[Abstract] Background: While many risk factors for Atrial Fibrillation (AF) have been identified, there are important differences in their relative impact between sexes. The aim of our study was to investigate the influence of sex as a long-term predictor of adverse events in “real world” AF patients treated with direct oral anticoagulants. Methods: The FANTASIIA registry is a prospective, national and multicentric study including outpatients with anticoagulated AF patients. Baseline characteristics and adverse events at 3 years of follow-up were collected and classified by sex. Cox multivariate analysis was performed to investigate the role of sex in major events and composite outcomes. Results: A total of 1956 patients were included in the study. 43.9% of them were women, with a mean age of 73.8 ± 9.4 years (women were older 76.5 ± 7.9 vs 71.7 ± 10.1, p<0.001). Women had higher rate of cardiovascular risk factors and higher mean of CHA2DS2-VASc (4.4 ± 1.4 vs 3.7 ± 1.6, p<0.001) and HAS-BLED (2.1 ± 1.0 vs 1.9 ± 1.1, p<0.001) than men. After 3 years of follow-up, rates of major events were similar in both groups with limit difference for all-cause mortality (4.4%/year in women vs 5.6%/year in men; p = 0.056). However, all the composite events were more frequent in women. We observed in the non-adjusted adverse events lower rate of all-cause mortality (HR 0.62, 95%CI 0.47–0.81; p<0.001), composite 1 outcomes (HR 0.80, 95%CI 0.65–0.98; p = 0.029) and composite 2 (HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.64–0.94; p = 0.010) in women compared with men. In multivariate Cox regression analysis observed that female sex was an independently protector factor for all-cause mortality and for the composite outcomes 1 and 2. Conclusions: In this “real world” study of anticoagulated AF patients, women could have a protective role against development of adverse events, mainly on all-cause mortality and combined events.Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0068Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0010Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0069Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/006

Usefulness of the 2MACE Score to Predicts Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

[Abstract] We investigated the incidence of nonembolic adverse events in 2 cohorts of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and validated the 2MACE score ([metabolic syndrome, age ≥75] [doubled]; [myocardial infarction or revascularization, congestive heart failure {HF}, and stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism]) as predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). We recruited 2,630 patients with AF from 2 different cohorts (Murcia AF and FANTASIIA). The 2MACE score was calculated, and during a median of 7.2 years (Murcia AF cohort) and 1.01 years (FANTASIIA) of follow-up, we recorded all nonembolic adverse events and MACEs (composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction or revascularization and cardiovascular death). Receiver operating characteristic curves comparison, reclassification and discriminatory analyses, and decision curve analyses were performed to compare predictive ability and clinical usefulness of the 2MACE score against CHA2DS2-VASc. During follow-up, there were 65 MACEs in the Murcia cohort and 60 in the FANTASIIA cohort. Events rates were higher in the high-risk category (score ≥3) (1.94%/year vs 0.81%/year in the Murcia cohort; 6.01%/year vs 1.71%/year, in FANTASIIA, both p <0.001). The predictive performance of 2MACE according to the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly higher than that of CHA2DS2-VASc (0.662 vs 0.618, p = 0.008 in the Murcia cohort; 0.656 vs 0.565, p = 0.003 in FANTASIIA). Decision curve analyses demonstrated improved clinical usefulness of the 2MACE compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score. In conclusion, in “real-world” patients with AF, the 2MACE score is a good predictor of MACEs. A score ≥3 should be used to categorize patients at “high risk,” in identifying patients at risk of MACE.Instituto de Salud Carlos III; PI13/00513Instituto de Salud Carlos III; P14/00253Fundación Séneca; 19245/PI/14Instituto Murciano de Investigación Biosanitaria; IMIB16/AP/01/0

INR during stroke and bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and on vitamin K antagonists

[Resumen] Introducción y objetivos. La fibrilación auricular tiene un mal pronóstico asociado fundamentalmente al desarrollo de ictus. A pesar del uso de anticoagulantes, algunos pacientes pueden sufrir ictus y también hemorragias graves. El tratamiento con antagonistas de la vitamina K (AVK) se controla mediante la razón internacional normalizada (INR). Nuestro objetivo fue estudiar la incidencia de ictus y hemorragias mayores, e investigar los valores de la INR y el tiempo en rango terapéutico en los 6 meses previos durante dichos episodios en pacientes con fibrilación auricular tratados con AVK. Métodos. Se incluyeron 1.483 pacientes con fibrilación auricular tratados con AVK durante al menos los 6 meses previos, incluidos consecutivamente desde junio de 2013 hasta octubre de 2014, con una mediana de seguimiento de 32,4 meses. Se identificaron aquellos pacientes que ingresaron por ictus o hemorragia mayor y se determinó la INR en cada episodio. Resultados. Se registraron 40 ictus (1,07/100 pacientes/año) y 120 hemorragias mayores (3,28/100 pacientes/año). La INR durante los ictus fue 2,33 ± 0,59, y durante las hemorragias 3,17 ± 1,48. El 57,5% de los pacientes tenían una INR de 2-3 durante los ictus y el 48,3% durante las hemorragias. Los pacientes que sufrieron un ictus con una INR fuera de rango durante el episodio presentaron un tiempo en rango terapéutico más bajo que aquellos con la INR en rango (49,2 ± 20,8% frente a 68,8 ± 19,4%; p = 0,043). Conclusiones. La mitad de los ictus y hemorragias mayores se producen con valores de la INR «adecuados» (2 a 3). Cambios en la estrategia de anticoagulación pueden ser necesarios para disminuir esta elevada tasa de eventos.[Abstract] Introduction and objectives. Atrial fibrillation has a poor prognosis, mainly due to the occurrence of cardioembolic stroke. Despite the use of anticoagulants some patients can develop stroke as well as severe bleeding. Treatment with vitamin K antagonists is usually controlled by means of the international normalized ratio (INR). The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of stroke and major bleedings, as well the values of INR and the time in therapeutic range within the previous 6 months during these events. Methods. The study included 1483 patients with atrial fibrillation treated with vitamin K antagonists for at least 6 months prior to inclusion, consecutively recruited from June 2013 to October 2014, with a median follow-up of 32.4 months. Those patients admitted due to an episode of stroke or severe bleeding were identified, and an analysis was performed on the INR values obtained for each episode. Results. There was a total of 40 strokes (1.07/100 patients/year) and 120 severe bleedings (3.28/100 patients/year) during the study period. The mean INR value during stroke episodes was 2.33 ± 0.59, and during severe bleeding 3.17 ± 1.48, with 57.5% of patients having had an INR of 2-3 during strokes, and 48.3% during bleedings. Patients with an INR out of range during the stroke had a time in therapeutic range lower than those with an INR between 2 and 3 during the event (49.2 ± 20.8% vs. 68.8 ± 19.4%; P = .043). Conclusions. More than 50% of strokes and almost 50% of severe bleedings occur with ‘adequate’ (2 to 3) INR values. Changes in the anticoagulation strategy seem to be necessary to decrease this high rate of severe events

Peripheral artery disease and clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the FANTASIIA registry

Observational study[Abstract] Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) are common conditions that increase cardiovascular risk. We determined the association between PAD and prognosis in a cohort of real-world patients receiving oral anticoagulant therapy for nonvalvular AF. Methods: We prospectively included 1956 patients (mean age 73.8 ± 9.5 years, 44.0% women) receiving oral anticoagulant therapy for AF. Clinical characteristics were collected at baseline. Patients were followed for a period of 3 years. Survival analysis and multivariable regression analyses were performed to assess variables related to death, stroke, bleeding, myocardial infarction and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Results: Patients with PAD (n = 118; 6%) exhibited higher rates of cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases. After 3 years of follow-up, there were a total of 255 deaths (no PAD 233, vs PAD 22), 45 strokes (43 vs 2), 146 major bleedings (136 vs 10) and 168 MACE (148 vs 20). On univariate analysis, there was a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (2.02%/year no PAD vs 4.08%/year PAD, P = .02), myocardial infarction (0.99%/year no PAD vs 2.43%/year PAD, P = .02) and MACE (3.18%/year no PAD vs 6.99%/year PAD, P < .01). There was no statistically significant association with these events after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions: In a large cohort of anticoagulated patients with AF, the presence of PAD represents a higher risk subgroup and is associated with worse crude outcomes. The exact contribution of the PAD independently of other cardiovascular diseases or risk factors requires further investigation.Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD16/11/00420Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0068Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0010Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/0069Instituto de Salud Carlos III; RD12/0042/006

Association of body mass index with clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the FANTASIIA Registry

[Abstract] Background. Obesity and atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexist and independently increase mortality. We sought to assess the association between obesity and adverse events in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for AF. Methods and Results. Consecutive AF outpatients receiving anticoagulant agents (both vitamin K antagonists and direct oral anticoagulants) were recruited into the FANTASIIA (Atrial fibrillation: influence of the level and type of anticoagulation on the incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke) registry. This observational, multicenter, and prospective registry of AF patients analyzes the quality of anticoagulation, incidence of events, and differences between oral anticoagulant therapies. We analyzed baseline patient characteristics according to body mass index, normal: <25 kg/m2, overweight: 25–30 kg/m2, and obese: ≥30 kg/m2), assessing all‐cause mortality, stroke, major bleeding and major adverse cardiovascular events (a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, and total mortality) at 3 years’ follow‐up. In this secondary prespecified substudy, the association of weight on prognosis was evaluated. We recruited 1956 patients (56% men, mean age 73.8±9.4 years): 358 (18.3%) had normal body mass index, 871 (44.5%) were overweight, and 727 (37.2%) were obese. Obese patients were younger (P<0.01) and had more comorbidities. Mean time in the therapeutic range was similar across body mass index categories (P=0.42). After a median follow‐up of 1070 days, 255 patients died (13%), 45 had a stroke (2.3%), 146 a major bleeding episode (7.5%) and 168 a major adverse cardiovascular event (8.6%). Event rates were similar between groups for total mortality (P=0.29), stroke (P=0.90), major bleeding (P=0.31), and major adverse cardiovascular events (P=0.24). On multivariate Cox analysis, body mass index was not independently associated with all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, stroke, major bleeding, or major adverse cardiovascular events. Conclusions. In this prospective cohort of patients anticoagulated for AF, obesity was highly prevalent and was associated with more comorbidities, but not with poor prognosis