Information Leakage Games

We consider a game-theoretic setting to model the interplay between attacker and defender in the context of information flow, and to reason about their optimal strategies. In contrast with standard game theory, in our games the utility of a mixed strategy is a convex function of the distribution on the defender's pure actions, rather than the expected value of their utilities. Nevertheless, the important properties of game theory, notably the existence of a Nash equilibrium, still hold for our (zero-sum) leakage games, and we provide algorithms to compute the corresponding optimal strategies. As typical in (simultaneous) game theory, the optimal strategy is usually mixed, i.e., probabilistic, for both the attacker and the defender. From the point of view of information flow, this was to be expected in the case of the defender, since it is well known that randomization at the level of the system design may help to reduce information leaks. Regarding the attacker, however, this seems the first work (w.r.t. the literature in information flow) proving formally that in certain cases the optimal attack strategy is necessarily probabilistic

Multi-Layer Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience for Smart Grid

The smart grid is a large-scale complex system that integrates communication technologies with the physical layer operation of the energy systems. Security and resilience mechanisms by design are important to provide guarantee operations for the system. This chapter provides a layered perspective of the smart grid security and discusses game and decision theory as a tool to model the interactions among system components and the interaction between attackers and the system. We discuss game-theoretic applications and challenges in the design of cross-layer robust and resilient controller, secure network routing protocol at the data communication and networking layers, and the challenges of the information security at the management layer of the grid. The chapter will discuss the future directions of using game-theoretic tools in addressing multi-layer security issues in the smart grid.Comment: 16 page

Bayesian signaling game based efficient security model for MANETs

Game Theory acts as a suitable tool offering promising solutions to security-related concerns in Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (i.e., MANETs). In MANETs, security forms a prominent concern as it includes nodes which are usually portable and require significant coordination between them. Further, the absence of physical organisation makes such networks susceptible to security breaches, hindering secure routing and execution among nodes. Game Theory approach has been manipulated in the current study to achieve an analytical view while addressing the security concerns in MANETs. This paper offers a Bayesian-Signaling game model capable of analysing the behaviour associated with regular as well as malicious nodes. In the proposed model, the utility of normal nodes has been increased while reducing the utility linked to malicious nodes. Moreover, the system employs a reputation system capable of stimulating best cooperation between the nodes. The regular nodes record incessantly to examine their corresponding nodes’ behaviours by using the belief system of Bayes-rules. On its comparison with existing schemes, it was revealed that the presented algorithm provides better identification of malicious nodes and attacks while delivering improved throughput and reduced false positive rate

Evolutionary dynamics of tumor-stroma interactions in multiple myeloma

Cancer cells and stromal cells cooperate by exchanging diffusible factors that sustain tumor growth, a form of frequency-dependent selection that can be studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory. In the case of multiple myeloma, three types of cells (malignant plasma cells, osteoblasts and osteoclasts) exchange growth factors with different effects, and tumor-stroma interactions have been analysed using a model of cooperation with pairwise interactions. Here we show that a model in which growth factors have autocrine and paracrine effects on multiple cells, a more realistic assumption for tumor-stroma interactions, leads to different results, with implications for disease progression and treatment. In particular, the model reveals that reducing the number of malignant plasma cells below a critical threshold can lead to their extinction and thus to restore a healthy balance between osteoclast and osteoblast, a result in line with current therapies against multiple myeloma

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

Kernel archetypal analysis for clustering web search frequency time series

We analyze time series which indicate how collective attention to social media services or Web-based businesses evolves over time. Data was gathered from Goolge Trends and consists of discrete time series of varying duration. Following the related literature, we fit Weibull distributions to the data. Given the two parameters of its fitted model, we embed each time series in a low-dimensional space and apply kernel archetypal analysis based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence for clustering. Our results reveal strong regularities in the dynamics of collective attention to social media and thus illustrate the potential of advanced pattern recognition techniques in the emerging area of Web science

GeneTerpret: a customizable multilayer approach to genomic variant prioritization and interpretation

Abstract Background Variant interpretation is the main bottleneck in medical genomic sequencing efforts. This usually involves genome analysts manually searching through a multitude of independent databases, often with the aid of several, mostly independent, computational tools. To streamline variant interpretation, we developed the GeneTerpret platform which collates data from current interpretation tools and databases, and applies a phenotype-driven query to categorize the variants identified in the genome(s). The platform assigns quantitative validity scores to genes by query and assembly of the genotype–phenotype data, sequence homology, molecular interactions, expression data, and animal models. It also uses the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) criteria to categorize variants into five tiers of pathogenicity. The final output is a prioritized list of potentially causal variants/genes. Results We tested GeneTerpret by comparing its performance to expert-curated genes (ClinGen’s gene-validity database) and variant pathogenicity reports (DECIPHER database). Output from GeneTerpret was 97.2% and 83.5% concordant with the expert-curated sources, respectively. Additionally, similar concordance was observed when GeneTerpret’s performance was compared with our internal expert-interpreted clinical datasets. Conclusions GeneTerpret is a flexible platform designed to streamline the genome interpretation process, through a unique interface, with improved ease, speed and accuracy. This modular and customizable system allows the user to tailor the component-programs in the analysis process to their preference. GeneTerpret is available online at https://geneterpret.com

Leakage and Protocol Composition in a Game-Theoretic Perspective

International audienceIn the inference attacks studied in Quantitative Information Flow (QIF), the adversary typically tries to interfere with the system in the attempt to increase its leakage of secret information. The defender, on the other hand, typically tries to decrease leakage by introducing some controlled noise. This noise introduction can be modeled as a type of protocol composition, i.e., a probabilistic choice among different protocols, and its effect on the amount of leakage depends heavily on whether or not this choice is visible to the adversary. In this work we consider operators for modeling visible and invisible choice in protocol composition, and we study their algebraic properties. We then formalize the interplay between defender and adversary in a game-theoretic framework adapted to the specific issues of QIF, where the payoff is information leakage. We consider various kinds of leakage games, depending on whether players act simultaneously or sequentially, and on whether or not the choices of the defender are visible to the adversary. Finally, we establish a hierarchy of these games in terms of their information leakage, and provide methods for finding optimal strategies (at the points of equilibrium) for both attacker and defender in the various cases