Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland

\ua9 2024The co-occurrence of wind and rainfall extremes can yield larger impacts than when either hazard occurs in isolation. This study assesses compound extremes produced by Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) during winter from two perspectives. Firstly, we assess ETCs with extreme footprints of wind and rainfall; footprint severity is measured using the wind severity index (WSI) and rain severity index (RSI) which account for the intensity, duration, and area of either hazard. Secondly, we assess local co-occurrences of 6-hourly wind and rainfall extremes within ETCs. We quantify the likelihood of compound extremes in these two perspectives and characterise a number of their drivers (jet stream, cyclone tracks, and fronts) in control (1981–2000) and future (2060–2081, RCP8.5) climate simulations from a 12-member ensemble of local convection-permitting 2.2 km climate projections over the UK and Ireland. Simulations indicate an increased probability of ETCs producing extremely severe WSI and RSI in the same storm in the future, occurring 3.6 times more frequently (every 5 years compared to every 18 years in the control). This frequency increase is mainly driven by increased rainfall intensities, pointing to a predominantly thermodynamic driver. However, future winds also increase alongside a strengthened jet stream, while a southward displaced jet and cyclone track in these events leads to a dynamically-enhanced increase in temperature. This intensifies rainfall in line with Clausius-Clapeyron, and potentially wind speeds due to additional latent heat energy. Future simulations also indicate an increase in the land area experiencing locally co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes; largely explained by increased rainfall within warm and cold fronts, although the relative increase is highest near cold fronts suggesting increased convective activity. These locally co-occurring extremes are more likely in storms with severe WSI and RSI, but not exclusively so as local co-occurrence requires the coincidence of separate drivers within ETCs. Overall, our results reveal many contributing factors to compound wind and rainfall extremes and their future changes. Further work is needed to understand the uncertainty in the future response by sampling additional climate models

Association between major surgical admissions and the cognitive trajectory: 19 year follow-up of Whitehall II cohort study

Objective: To quantify the association between major surgery and the age related cognitive trajectory. / Design: Prospective longitudinal cohort study. / Setting: United Kingdom. / Participants: 7532 adults with as many as five cognitive assessments between 1997 and 2016 in the Whitehall II study, with linkage to hospital episode statistics. Exposures of interest included any major hospital admission, defined as requiring more than one overnight stay during follow-up. / Main outcomes measures: The primary outcome was the global cognitive score established from a battery of cognitive tests encompassing reasoning, memory, and phonemic and semantic fluency. Bayesian linear mixed effects models were used to calculate the change in the age related cognitive trajectory after hospital admission. The odds of substantial cognitive decline induced by surgery defined as more than 1.96 standard deviations from a predicted trajectory (based on the first three cognitive waves of data) was also calculated. / Results: After accounting for the age related cognitive trajectory, major surgery was associated with a small additional cognitive decline, equivalent on average to less than five months of aging (95% credible interval 0.01 to 0.73 years). In comparison, admissions for medical conditions and stroke were associated with 1.4 (1.0 to 1.8) and 13 (9.6 to 16) years of aging, respectively. Substantial cognitive decline occurred in 2.5% of participants with no admissions, 5.5% of surgical admissions, and 12.7% of medical admissions. Compared with participants with no major hospital admissions, those with surgical or medical events were more likely to have substantial decline from their predicted trajectory (surgical admissions odds ratio 2.3, 95% credible interval 1.4 to 3.9; medical admissions 6.2, 3.4 to 11.0). / Conclusions: Major surgery is associated with a small, long term change in the average cognitive trajectory that is less profound than for major medical admissions. The odds of substantial cognitive decline after surgery was about doubled, though lower than for medical admissions. During informed consent, this information should be weighed against the potential health benefits of surgery

Association between major surgical admissions and the cognitive trajectory: 19 year follow-up of Whitehall II cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between major surgery and the age related cognitive trajectory. // DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study. // SETTING: United Kingdom. // PARTICIPANTS: 7532 adults with as many as five cognitive assessments between 1997 and 2016 in the Whitehall II study, with linkage to hospital episode statistics. Exposures of interest included any major hospital admission, defined as requiring more than one overnight stay during follow-up. // MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: The primary outcome was the global cognitive score established from a battery of cognitive tests encompassing reasoning, memory, and phonemic and semantic fluency. Bayesian linear mixed effects models were used to calculate the change in the age related cognitive trajectory after hospital admission. The odds of substantial cognitive decline induced by surgery defined as more than 1.96 standard deviations from a predicted trajectory (based on the first three cognitive waves of data) was also calculated. // RESULTS: After accounting for the age related cognitive trajectory, major surgery was associated with a small additional cognitive decline, equivalent on average to less than five months of aging (95% credible interval 0.01 to 0.73 years). In comparison, admissions for medical conditions and stroke were associated with 1.4 (1.0 to 1.8) and 13 (9.6 to 16) years of aging, respectively. Substantial cognitive decline occurred in 2.5% of participants with no admissions, 5.5% of surgical admissions, and 12.7% of medical admissions. Compared with participants with no major hospital admissions, those with surgical or medical events were more likely to have substantial decline from their predicted trajectory (surgical admissions odds ratio 2.3, 95% credible interval 1.4 to 3.9; medical admissions 6.2, 3.4 to 11.0). // CONCLUSIONS: Major surgery is associated with a small, long term change in the average cognitive trajectory that is less profound than for major medical admissions. The odds of substantial cognitive decline after surgery was about doubled, though lower than for medical admissions. During informed consent, this information should be weighed against the potential health benefits of surgery

Natural language analysis of online health forums

Despite advances in concept extraction from free text, finding meaningful health related information from online patient forums still poses a significant challenge. Here we demonstrate how structured information can be extracted from posts found in such online health related forums by forming relationships between a drug/treatment and a symptom or side effect, including the polarity/sentiment of the patient. In particular, a rule-based natural language processing (NLP) system is deployed, where information in sentences is linked together though anaphora resolution. Our NLP relationship extraction system provides a strong baseline, achieving an F1 score of over 80% in discovering the said relationships that are present in the posts we analysed

Compound wind and rainfall extremes: Drivers and future changes over the UK and Ireland

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData availability: Wind and rainfall data is freely available. Other data can be made available upon reasonable request.The co-occurrence of wind and rainfall extremes can yield larger impacts than when either hazard occurs in isolation. This study assesses compound extremes produced by Extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) during winter from two perspectives. Firstly, we assess ETCs with extreme footprints of wind and rainfall; footprint severity is measured using the wind severity index (WSI) and rain severity index (RSI) which account for the intensity, duration, and area of either hazard. Secondly, we assess local co-occurrences of 6-hourly wind and rainfall extremes within ETCs. We quantify the likelihood of compound extremes in these two perspectives and characterise a number of their drivers (jet stream, cyclone tracks, and fronts) in control (1981-2000) and future (2060-2081, RCP8.5) climate simulations from a 12-member ensemble of local convection-permitting 2.2 km climate projections over the UK and Ireland. Simulations indicate an increased probability of ETCs producing extremely severe WSI and RSI in the same storm in the future, occurring 3.6 times more frequently (every 5 years compared to every 18 years in the control). This frequency increase is mainly driven by increased rainfall intensities, pointing to a predominantly thermodynamic driver. However, future winds also increase alongside a strengthened jet stream, while a southward displaced jet and cyclone track in these events leads to a dynamically-enhanced increase in temperature. This intensifies rainfall in line with Clausius-Clapeyron, and potentially wind speeds due to additional latent heat energy. Future simulations also indicate an increase in the land area experiencing locally co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes; largely explained by increased rainfall within warm and cold fronts, although the relative increase is highest near cold fronts suggesting increased convective activity. These locally co-occurring extremes are more likely in storms with severe WSI and RSI, but not exclusively so as local co-occurrence requires the coincidence of separate drivers within ETCs. Overall, our results reveal many contributing factors to compound wind and rainfall extremes and their future changes. Further work is needed to understand the uncertainty in the future response by sampling additional climate models.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Joint UK BEIS/Defra Hadley Centre Climate ProgrammeEuropean Union Horizon 202

Beyond the Refugee Crisis how the UK news media represent asylum seekers across national boundaries

Migration is one of the most pressing, divisive issues in global politics today, and media play a crucial role in how communities understand and respond. This study examines how UK newspapers (n = 974) and popular news websites (n = 1044) reported on asylum seekers throughout 2017. It contributes to previous literature in two important ways. First, by examining the ‘new normal’ of daily news coverage in the wake of the 2015 ‘refugee crisis’ in Europe. Second, by looking at how asylum seekers from different regions are represented. The content analysis finds significant variations in how asylum seekers are reported, including terminology use and topics they are associated with. The paper also identifies important commonalities in how all asylum seekers are represented - most notably, the dominance of political elites as sources across all media content. It argues that Entman’s ‘cascade network model’ can help to explain this, with elites in one country able to influence transnational reports

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Highly Absorbing Lead-Free Semiconductor Cu₂AgBiI₆ for Photovoltaic Applications from the Quaternary CuI-AgI-BiI₃ Phase Space

Since the emergence of lead halide perovskites for photovoltaic research, there has been mounting effort in the search for alternative compounds with improved or complementary physical, chemical, or optoelectronic properties. Here, we report the discovery of Cu_{2}AgBiI_{6}: a stable, inorganic, lead-free wide-band-gap semiconductor, well suited for use in lead-free tandem photovoltaics. We measure a very high absorption coefficient of 1.0 × 10^{5} cm^{–1} near the absorption onset, several times that of CH_{3}NH_{3}PbI_{3}. Solution-processed Cu2AgBiI6 thin films show a direct band gap of 2.06(1) eV, an exciton binding energy of 25 meV, a substantial charge-carrier mobility (1.7 cm^{2} V^{–1} s^{–1}), a long photoluminescence lifetime (33 ns), and a relatively small Stokes shift between absorption and emission. Crucially, we solve the structure of the first quaternary compound in the phase space among CuI, AgI and BiI_{3}. The structure includes both tetrahedral and octahedral species which are open to compositional tuning and chemical substitution to further enhance properties. Since the proposed double-perovskite Cs2AgBiI6 thin films have not been synthesized to date, Cu_{2}AgBiI_{6} is a valuable example of a stable Ag^{+}/Bi^{3+} octahedral motif in a close-packed iodide sublattice that is accessed via the enhanced chemical diversity of the quaternary phase space

Severe progressive scoliosis due to huge subcutaneous cavernous hemangioma: A case report

Cavernous hemangioma consists mainly of congenital vascular malformations present before birth and gradually increasing in size with skeletal growth. A small number of patients with cavernous hemangioma develop scoliosis, and surgical treatment for the scoliosis in such cases has not been reported to date. Here we report a 12-year-old male patient with severe progressive scoliosis due to a huge subcutaneous cavernous hemangioma, who underwent posterior correction and fusion surgery. Upon referral to our department, radiographs revealed a scoliosis of 85° at T6-L1 and a kyphosis of 58° at T4-T10. CT and MR images revealed a huge hemangioma extending from the subcutaneous region to the paraspinal muscles and the retroperitoneal space and invading the spinal canal. Posterior correction and fusion surgery using pedicle screws between T2 and L3 were performed. Massive hemorrhage from the hemangioma occurred during the surgery, with intraoperative blood loss reaching 2800 ml. The scoliosis was corrected to 59°, and the kyphosis to 45° after surgery. Seven hours after surgery, the patient suffered from hypovolemic shock and disseminated intravascular coagulation due to postoperative hemorrhage from the hemangioma. The patient developed sensory and conduction aphasia caused by cerebral hypoxia during the shock on the day of the surgery. At present, two years after the surgery, although the patient has completely recovered from the aphasia. This case illustrates that, in correction surgery for scoliosis due to huge subcutaneous cavernous hemangioma, intraoperative and postoperative intensive care for hemodynamics should be performed, since massive hemorrhage can occur during the postoperative period as well as the intraoperative period

Plant-RRBS, a bisulfite and next-generation sequencing-based methylome profiling method enriching for coverage of cytosine positions

Background: Cytosine methylation in plant genomes is important for the regulation of gene transcription and transposon activity. Genome-wide methylomes are studied upon mutation of the DNA methyltransferases, adaptation to environmental stresses or during development. However, from basic biology to breeding programs, there is a need to monitor multiple samples to determine transgenerational methylation inheritance or differential cytosine methylation. Methylome data obtained by sodium hydrogen sulfite (bisulfite)-conversion and next-generation sequencing (NGS) provide genome- wide information on cytosine methylation. However, a profiling method that detects cytosine methylation state dispersed over the genome would allow high-throughput analysis of multiple plant samples with distinct epigenetic signatures. We use specific restriction endonucleases to enrich for cytosine coverage in a bisulfite and NGS-based profiling method, which was compared to whole-genome bisulfite sequencing of the same plant material. Methods: We established an effective methylome profiling method in plants, termed plant-reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (plant-RRBS), using optimized double restriction endonuclease digestion, fragment end repair, adapter ligation, followed by bisulfite conversion, PCR amplification and NGS. We report a performant laboratory protocol and a straightforward bioinformatics data analysis pipeline for plant-RRBS, applicable for any reference-sequenced plant species. Results: As a proof of concept, methylome profiling was performed using an Oryza sativa ssp. indica pure breeding line and a derived epigenetically altered line (epiline). Plant-RRBS detects methylation levels at tens of millions of cytosine positions deduced from bisulfite conversion in multiple samples. To evaluate the method, the coverage of cytosine positions, the intra-line similarity and the differential cytosine methylation levels between the pure breeding line and the epiline were determined. Plant-RRBS reproducibly covers commonly up to one fourth of the cytosine positions in the rice genome when using MspI-DpnII within a group of five biological replicates of a line. The method predominantly detects cytosine methylation in putative promoter regions and not-annotated regions in rice. Conclusions: Plant-RRBS offers high-throughput and broad, genome- dispersed methylation detection by effective read number generation obtained from reproducibly covered genome fractions using optimized endonuclease combinations, facilitating comparative analyses of multi-sample studies for cytosine methylation and transgenerational stability in experimental material and plant breeding populations