Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach

Background A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods A cohort of 3101 children aged 2–24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering. Findings Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0–2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2–4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62–82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92–100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25–37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34–62%). Interpretation WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320

Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment

© 2019 The Authors Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design

Pediatric inpatient antibiotic prescription practices in the chain network hospitals at baseline

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global concern. Antibiotic stewardship is being promoted to reduce AMR. However, few studies have documented inpatient antibiotic prescription practices in lowresource settings. We audited the 240 clinical notes of 2-23 month-old inpatient children in Bangladesh (2), Kenya (3), Malawi (1), Pakistan (1) and Uganda (1) as part of a baseline assessment in a study to identify risk factors for mortality in acutely ill inpatients, particularly in undernourished children. This analysis describes adherence to antibiotic guidelines during the first 48 hours of admission

Barriers to pediatric inpatient care guideline adherence: A mixed method assessment of eight hospitals in Asia and Africa

Difficulty adhering to evidence-based guidelines is an important driver of inpatient child mortality. A mixed method assessment was conducted in eight district or national referral hospitals in Bangladesh (2), Kenya (3), Malawi (1), Pakistan (1) and Uganda (1) between July and November 2016. Key informants (administrators, clinicians, nurses, nutritionists, pharmacists) were interviewed and essential hospital infrastructure, equipment and medicines was assessed by direct observation. The clinical notes of 240 children aged 2-23 months were reviewed and indicators of adherence to guidelines for common pediatric conditions, including severe acute malnutrition (SAM), pneumonia, diarrhea, and anemia were abstracted

A mixed method multi-country assessment of barriers to implementing pediatric inpatient care guidelines

Introduction: Accelerating progress in reducing child deaths is needed in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal child mortality target. This will require a focus on vulnerable children–including young children, those who are undernourished or with acute illnesses requiring hospitalization. Improving adherence to inpatient guidelines may be an important strategy to reduce child mortality, including among the most vulnerable. The aim of our assessment of nine sub-Saharan African and South Asian hospitals was to determine adherence to pediatric inpatient care recommendations, in addition to capacity for and barriers to implementation of guideline-adherent care prior to commencing the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Cohort study. The CHAIN Cohort study aims to identify modifiable risk factors for poor inpatient and post discharge outcomes above and beyond implementation of guidelines. Methods: Hospital infrastructure, staffing, durable equipment, and consumable supplies such as medicines and laboratory reagents, were evaluated through observation and key informant interviews. Inpatient medical records of 2–23 month old children were assessed for adherence to national and international guidelines. The records of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were oversampled to reflect the CHAIN study population. Seven core adherence indicators were examined: oximetry and oxygen therapy, fluids, anemia diagnosis and transfusion, antibiotics, malaria testing and antimalarials, nutritional assessment and management, and HIV testing. Results: All sites had facilities and equipment necessary to implement care consistent with World Health Organization and national guidelines. However, stockouts of essential medicines and laboratory reagents were reported to be common at some sites, even though they were mostly present during the assessment visits. Doctor and nurse to patient ratios varied widely. We reviewed the notes of 261 children with admission diagnoses of sepsis (17), malaria (47), pneumonia (70), diarrhea (106), and SAM (119); 115 had multiple diagnoses. Adherence to oxygen therapy, antimalarial, and malnutrition refeeding guidelines was >75%. Appropriate antimicrobials were prescribed for 75% of antibiotic-indicative conditions. However, 20/23 (87%) diarrhea and 20/27 (74%) malaria cases without a documented indication were prescribed antibiotics. Only 23/122 (19%) with hemoglobin levels meeting anemia criteria had recorded anemia diagnoses. HIV test results were infrequently documented even at hospitals with universal screening policies (66/173, 38%). Informants at all sites attributed inconsistent guideline implementation to inadequate staffing. Conclusion: Assessed hospitals had the infrastructure and equipment to implement guideline-consistent care. While fluids, appropriate antimalarials and antibiotics, and malnutrition refeeding adherence was comparable to published estimates from low- and high-resource settings, there were inconsistencies in implementation of some other recommendations. Stockouts of essential therapeutics and laboratory reagents were a noted barrier, but facility staff perceived inadequate human resources as the primary constraint to consistent guideline implementation.</br

A mixed method multi-country assessment of barriers to implementing pediatric inpatient care guidelines

Introduction: Accelerating progress in reducing child deaths is needed in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal child mortality target. This will require a focus on vulnerable children–including young children, those who are undernourished or with acute illnesses requiring hospitalization. Improving adherence to inpatient guidelines may be an important strategy to reduce child mortality, including among the most vulnerable. The aim of our assessment of nine sub-Saharan African and South Asian hospitals was to determine adherence to pediatric inpatient care recommendations, in addition to capacity for and barriers to implementation of guideline-adherent care prior to commencing the Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Cohort study. The CHAIN Cohort study aims to identify modifiable risk factors for poor inpatient and post discharge outcomes above and beyond implementation of guidelines. Methods: Hospital infrastructure, staffing, durable equipment, and consumable supplies such as medicines and laboratory reagents, were evaluated through observation and key informant interviews. Inpatient medical records of 2–23 month old children were assessed for adherence to national and international guidelines. The records of children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) were oversampled to reflect the CHAIN study population. Seven core adherence indicators were examined: oximetry and oxygen therapy, fluids, anemia diagnosis and transfusion, antibiotics, malaria testing and antimalarials, nutritional assessment and management, and HIV testing. Results: All sites had facilities and equipment necessary to implement care consistent with World Health Organization and national guidelines. However, stockouts of essential medicines and laboratory reagents were reported to be common at some sites, even though they were mostly present during the assessment visits. Doctor and nurse to patient ratios varied widely. We reviewed the notes of 261 children with admission diagnoses of sepsis (17), malaria (47), pneumonia (70), diarrhea (106), and SAM (119); 115 had multiple diagnoses. Adherence to oxygen therapy, antimalarial, and malnutrition refeeding guidelines was >75%. Appropriate antimicrobials were prescribed for 75% of antibiotic-indicative conditions. However, 20/23 (87%) diarrhea and 20/27 (74%) malaria cases without a documented indication were prescribed antibiotics. Only 23/122 (19%) with hemoglobin levels meeting anemia criteria had recorded anemia diagnoses. HIV test results were infrequently documented even at hospitals with universal screening policies (66/173, 38%). Informants at all sites attributed inconsistent guideline implementation to inadequate staffing. Conclusion: Assessed hospitals had the infrastructure and equipment to implement guideline-consistent care. While fluids, appropriate antimalarials and antibiotics, and malnutrition refeeding adherence was comparable to published estimates from low- and high-resource settings, there were inconsistencies in implementation of some other recommendations. Stockouts of essential therapeutics and laboratory reagents were a noted barrier, but facility staff perceived inadequate human resources as the primary constraint to consistent guideline implementation.</br