Genetic variation in WNT9B increases relapse hazard in Multiple Sclerosis

Objective: Many multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic susceptibility variants have been identified, but understanding disease heterogeneity remains a key challenge. Relapses are a core feature of MS and a common primary outcome of clinical trials, with prevention of relapses benefiting patients immediately and potentially limiting long-term disability accrual. We aim to identify genetic variation associated with relapse hazard in MS by analyzing the largest study population to date.Methods: We performed a genomewide association study (GWAS) in a discovery cohort and investigated the genomewide significant variants in a replication cohort. Combining both cohorts, we captured a total of 2,231 relapses occurring before the start of any immunomodulatory treatment in 991 patients. For assessing time to relapse, we applied a survival analysis utilizing Cox proportional hazards models. We also investigated the association between MS genetic risk scores and relapse hazard and performed a gene ontology pathway analysis.Results: The low-frequency genetic variant rs11871306 within WNT9B reached genomewide significance in predicting relapse hazard and replicated (meta-analysis hazard ratio (HR) = 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.70-2.78, p = 2.07 × 10-10 ). A pathway analysis identified an association of the pathway "response to vitamin D" with relapse hazard (p = 4.33 × 10-6 ). The MS genetic risk scores, however, were not associated with relapse hazard.Interpretation: Genetic factors underlying disease heterogeneity differ from variants associated with MS susceptibility. Our findings imply that genetic variation within the Wnt signaling and vitamin D pathways contributes to differences in relapse occurrence. The present study highlights these cross-talking pathways as potential modulators of MS disease activity

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity and its uncertainty from grain-size data using GLUE and artificial neural networks

peer reviewedaudience: researcher, professionalVarious approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods, i.e.multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks, that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for Ks prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict Ks from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from literature demonstrates the importance of site specific calibration. The dataset used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size -Ks pairs. Finally, an application with the optimized models is presented for a borehole lacking Ks data

Development and analysis of the Soil Water Infiltration Global database.

In this paper, we present and analyze a novel global database of soil infiltration measurements, the Soil Water Infiltration Global (SWIG) database. In total, 5023 infiltration curves were collected across all continents in the SWIG database. These data were either provided and quality checked by the scientists who performed the experiments or they were digitized from published articles. Data from 54 different countries were included in the database with major contributions from Iran, China, and the USA. In addition to its extensive geographical coverage, the collected infiltration curves cover research from 1976 to late 2017. Basic information on measurement location and method, soil properties, and land use was gathered along with the infiltration data, making the database valuable for the development of pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for estimating soil hydraulic properties, for the evaluation of infiltration measurement methods, and for developing and validating infiltration models. Soil textural information (clay, silt, and sand content) is available for 3842 out of 5023 infiltration measurements (~76%) covering nearly all soil USDA textural classes except for the sandy clay and silt classes. Information on land use is available for 76% of the experimental sites with agricultural land use as the dominant type (~40%). We are convinced that the SWIG database will allow for a better parameterization of the infiltration process in land surface models and for testing infiltration models. All collected data and related soil characteristics are provided online in *.xlsx and *.csv formats for reference, and we add a disclaimer that the database is for public domain use only and can be copied freely by referencing it. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.885492 (Rahmati et al., 2018). Data quality assessment is strongly advised prior to any use of this database. Finally, we would like to encourage scientists to extend and update the SWIG database by uploading new data to it

Development and analysis of the Soil Water Infiltration Global database

In this paper, we present and analyze a novel global database of soil infiltration measurements, the Soil Water Infiltration Global (SWIG) database. In total, 5023 infiltration curves were collected across all continents in the SWIG database. These data were either provided and quality checked by the scientists who performed the experiments or they were digitized from published articles. Data from 54 different countries were included in the database with major contributions from Iran, China, and the USA. In addition to its extensive geographical coverage, the collected infiltration curves cover research from 1976 to late 2017. Basic information on measurement location and method, soil properties, and land use was gathered along with the infiltration data, making the database valuable for the development of pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for estimating soil hydraulic properties, for the evaluation of infiltration measurement methods, and for developing and validating infiltration models. Soil textural information (clay, silt, and sand content) is available for 3842 out of 5023 infiltration measurements ( ∼ 76%) covering nearly all soil USDA textural classes except for the sandy clay and silt classes. Information on land use is available for 76% of the experimental sites with agricultural land use as the dominant type ( ∼ 40%). We are convinced that the SWIG database will allow for a better parameterization of the infiltration process in land surface models and for testing infiltration models. All collected data and related soil characteristics are provided online in *.xlsx and *.csv formats for reference, and we add a disclaimer that the database is for public domain use only and can be copied freely by referencing it. Supplementary data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.885492 (Rahmati et al., 2018). Data quality assessment is strongly advised prior to any use of this database. Finally, we would like to encourage scientists to extend and update the SWIG database by uploading new data to it

Modeling the Rainfall-Runoff Process with a Bilinear State-Space Model

A fairly simple iterative algorithm for identifying mul-tivariable bilinear systems has been introduced, which uses input/output data directly. This new algorithm falls in the class of subspace methods and resembles well known Hankel based realization algorithms that identify a bilinear state space model on the basis of the Volterra kernels instead. Classical rainfall-runoff modeling has been limited to low order Volterra kernels due to the computational complexity involved in the identification. With the new algorithm this is no longer necessary since the parameters of the bilinear model are directly related to the Volterra kernels. The iterative subspace algorithm has been tested with a set of data from the Voer catchment in Belgium. The results indicate a better performance compared to a linear subspace algorithm, especially in tracking the base flow recession, which is where the nonlinearities are concentrtated

State Space Identification of Linear Deterministic Rainfall-Runoff Models

Rainfall‐runoff models of the black box type abound in the water resources literature (i.e., transfer function, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), ARMAX, state space, etc.). The corresponding system identification algorithms for such models are known to be numerically efficient and accurate, leading in most cases to good parsimonious representations of the rainfall‐runoff process. Alternatively, every model in transfer function, ARMA, and ARMAX form has an equivalent state space representation. However, state space models do not necessarily have simple system identification algorithms, unless the system matrices are restricted to some canonical form. Furthermore, state space system identification algorithms that work with the rainfall/runoff data directly (i.e., covariance free), require initial conditions and are inherently iterative and nonlinear. In this paper we present a state space system identification theory which overcomes these limitations. One advantage of such a theory is that the corresponding algorithms are highly robust to additive noise in the data. They are referred to as “subspace algorithms” due to their ability to separate the signal subspace from the noise subspace. The main advantages of the subspace algorithms are the automatic structure identification (system order), geometrical insights (notions of angle between subspaces), and the fact that they rely on robust numerical procedures (singular value decomposition). In this paper, two algorithms are presented. The first one is a two‐step procedure, where the impulse response (unit hydrograph ordinates for the single‐input, single‐output case) are computed from the input/output data by solving a constrained deconvolution problem. These impulse response ordinates are then used as inputs for identifying the system matrices by means of a Hankel‐based realization algorithm. The second approach uses the data directly to identify the system matrices, bypassing the deconvolution step. The algorithms are tested with real data from the Voer catchment in Belgium