Modelling international tourism demand using seasonal ARIMA models

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model able to capture and explain the patterns and the determinants of German tourism demand in Croatia. Design – The present study is based on the Box-Jenkins approach in building a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model intend to describe the behaviour of the German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Approach – The proposed model is a seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model. Findings – The diagnostic checking and the performed tests showed that the estimated seasonal ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,3)4 model is adequate in modelling and analysing the number of German tourists ‘arrivals to Croatia. Originality of the paper – This study provides a seasonal ARIMA model helpful to analyse, understand and forecast German tourists’ flows to Croatia. Such, more detailed and systematic studies should be considered as starting points of future macroeconomic development strategies, pricing strategies and tourism sector routing strategies in Croatia, as a predominantly tourism oriented country

Sentence structure in narrative discourse of young school-age children

Sintaktički je razvoj u djeteta najintenzivniji između treće i pete godine, ali on se nastavlja i poslije tijekom školovanja te u odrasloj dobi. Rani je sintaktički razvoj obilježen usvajanjem novih sintaktičkih ustrojstava, dok se kasniji sintaktički razvoj odnosi na sposobnost kombiniranja već usvojenih jezičnih ustrojstava. Sintaktički razvoj djece školske dobi nedovoljno je istražen te se sa psiholingvističkog gledišta nameću brojna pitanja. Svrha je ovoga rada ispitati koje rečenične vrste rabe jednojezična djeca urednoga jezičnogovornoga razvoja u dobi od osam i deset godina prilikom pripovijedanja te na temelju dobivenih rezultata opisati razlike u proizvodnji rečenica između dviju navedenih dobnih skupina. Istraživanje je obuhvatilo desetero osmogodišnjaka i isto toliko desetogodišnjaka, a njihova je ovladanost rečenicama ispitana slikovnicom Žabo, gdje si? (Frog, where are you?, Mayer 1969.) Dobiveni rezultati pokazali su kako djeca mlađe školske dobi najčešće stvaraju složene rečenice te kako su unutar njih najzastupljenije višestrukosložene. U najmanjem su se postotku učenici služili neoglagoljenim rečenicama.The development of the syntax is the most intensive between the ages of three and five, but it continues to develop later during the school age and mature age. Early syntactic development is marked by the adoption of new syntactic structures, while the later syntactic development refers to the ability to combine the acquired language structures. Syntactic development of young school-age children is insufficiently investigated and the psycholinguistic point of view imposed a number of issues. The purpose of this research is to investigate the types of sentences used by unilingual children with regular language development at the ages of eight and ten in narration and to describe differences in sentence production between two specified age groups on the basis of the results The study included equal number of children (10) at each age group and their acquisition of the sentences w as examined using a wordless picture book Frog, where are you? (Mayer, 1969) The results show that young school-age children usually produce complex sentences and that the most common are multiple complex sentences. Elliptical sentences were the least prod uced type of sentences

DOPRINOS MODELIRANJU E-TURISTIČKE POTRAŽNJE

The tourism sector has experienced several significant changes over the past decades due to the strong development of the information and communication technologies (ICT). The technological revolution experienced through the development of the Internet has changed dramatically the market conditions for tourism organizations. ICTs evolve rapidly providing new tools for tourism development and rerouting. As known, tourism is defined and characterized by the demand side, it is therefore important to detect and define the various factors that determine it. Tourism demand modeling and forecasting have been an issue under examination in many researches. A large number of econometrics studies used, both time series and econometric approaches to model and forecast tourism demand and its various determinants. As known, tourism demand can be defined as a set of goods and services that people acquire to accomplish their journeys, expressed in term of quantity. Among different factors that influence tourism demand income, prices, substitute pries, and other variable are mentioned as determining measures or explanatory variables that affect the quantity of goods or services purchased. On the other side of the tourism demand function, as the dependent variable, most commonly the number of tourists or the number of tourists overnights are investigated. The paper presents the authors endeavor to express a theoretical e − tourism demand model, as a mathematical function that indicates the presence of a relationship between the dependent variable, expressed by the number of tourists’ overnight stays and a number of commonly used explanatory variables. Due to the growing importance of the information and communication technology and its great influence on the tourism sector, the authors research the possibilities of adding some additional supplementary independent variables i.e. the number of internet users, the number of overnights stays that were booked online or the number of online reservations to stress and represent the significant role play by the information and communication technology in determining the e-tourism demand.Zbog snažnog razvoja informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija (ICT) turistički sektor je u posljednjih nekoliko desetljeća doživio nekoliko značajnih promjena. Tehnološka revolucija prouzročena razvojem interneta dramatično je promijenila tržišne uvjete poslovanja svih turističkih organizacija. ICT se brzo razvija, pružajući nove alate za preusmjeravanje i razvoj turizma.Kao što je poznato, turizam je determiniran i karakteriziran prvenstveno od strane potražnje, stoga je važno definirati i pronaći različite faktore koji ju određuju. Modeliranje i prognoziranje turističke potražnje tema je mnogih istraživanja. Veliki broj ekonometrijskih istraživanja koristi pristup analize vremenskih serija kao i ekonometrijski pristup za modeliranje i prognoziranje turističke potražnje i njezinih različitih odrednica. Kao što je poznato, turistička potražnja može se definirati kao skup dobara i usluga koje ljudi koriste za vrijeme svojeg putovanja, izražen u smislu kvalitete. Između različitih čimbenika koji utječu na turističku potražnju prihod, cijene, cijene supstituta i druge varijable spominju se kao mjere odrednice ili eksplanatorne varijable koje utječu na kvantitetu kupljenih dobara i usluga. S druge strane, u funkciji turističke potražnje kao zavisna varijabla najčešće se istražuje broj turista ili broj ostvarenih turističkih noćenja. Polazeći od snažnog utjecaja, kojega dramatični razvoj ICTa, ima na cjelokupni turistički sektor, ad prikazuje nastojanje autorica da izraze teorijski model e-turističke potražnje, kao matematičku funkciju koja izražava prisutnost veze između zavisne varijable, izražene brojem turističkih dolazaka i najčešće korištenih eksplanatornih varijabli, ali i uključivanjem dodatne nezavisne varijable, primjerice broj internet korisnika, broj noćenja ostvarenih online bookingom ili broj online rezervacija da bi se istaknula i prikazala značajna uloga informacijske i komunikacijske tehnologije u određivanje e-turističke potražnje

Satzarten in einer Stichprobe der gesprochenen Sprache bei Kindern im jüngeren Schulalter

Iako se sintaksa najintenzivnije razvija između treće i pete godine, sintaktički se razvoj, doduše mnogo sporije, nastavlja i tijekom školovanja. Cilj je ovoga rada utvrditi glavne vrste rečenica koje su djeca usvojila u 2. i u 4. razredu kada se vrste rečenica još ne uče prema nastavnom planu i programu. Nadalje, želi se utvrditi postoje li individualne razlike među djecom, kao i upotrebljavaju li djeca starije dobne skupine složenije rečenične strukture od mlađe dobne skupine. Uz navedeno, naglasak u radu jest i na uporabi odnosnih rečenica jer je uporaba rečenica s umetnutim strukturama najveće dostignuće jezičnoga razvoja i njima se intenzivno ovladava tek u školskoj dobi (Balija, Hržica, Kuvač Kraljević, 2012.). U istraživanju je sudjelovalo 20 djece mlađe školske dobi – osmogodišnjaci i desetogodišnjaci. Njihova ovladanost vrstama rečenica ispitana je slikovnicom ‘Frog, where are you?’ (Mayer 1969). Rezultati su pokazali da djeca mlađe školske dobi proizvode različite rečenične strukture. Proizvode više složenih nego jednostavnih rečenica, a unutar složenih rečenica najzastupljenije su višestrukosložene rečenice. Od nezavisnosloženih rečenica djeca proizvode sastavne i suprotne rečenice te rečenični niz. Unutar jednostavnih najviše je proširenih rečenica. Pojavljuje se i mali broj neproširenih te svega jedna neoglagoljena rečenica.Although the development of syntax is at its peak between ages three and five, it continues to develop during school-age, however, much slower. The aim of this paper is to find out the main types of sentences acquired by younger school-age children, more precisely in grades 2 and 4 as, according to the curriculum, sentence types are not taught at this stage yet. Furthermore, the aim is to establish possible individual differences between children, as well as to find out whether older children\u27s use of sentence structures is more complex than that of younger children. Beside that the paper emphasises the use of relative clauses since the use of sentences with embedded structures is the greatest achievement of linguistic development which is intensively acquired not until school age (Balija, Hržica, Kuvač Kraljević, 2012.). The research included 20 younger school-age children – eight-year-olds and ten-year-olds. Their acquisition of sentence types was tested by means of the picture book ‘Frog, where are you?’ (Mayer 1969). The results show that younger school-age children make different sentence structures. They make more complex sentences, and among complex sentences multiple complex ones are predominantly used. As for compound clauses, children use linking and contrast, as well as asyndetic coordination. Among simple sentences, extended clauses are mostly used. There is also a small number of non-extended clauses and only one clause without a verb.Obwohl die Syntax sich am intensivsten zwischen dem dritten und dem fünften Lebensjahr entwickelt, setzt sich die Entwicklung der Syntax auch im Schulalter fort, jedoch viel langsamer. Der vorliegende Beitrag hat zum Ziel festzustellen, welche Hauptsatzarten Kinder in der 2. und 4. Klasse der Primarschule erworben haben, wenn das Curriculum das Erlernen der Satzarten noch nicht vorsieht. Der Beitrag hat weiterhin zum Ziel herauszufinden, ob zwischen den Kindern individuelle Unterschiede bestehen, sowie ob ältere Kinder komplexere Satzstrukturen gebrauchen als jüngere Kinder. Der Fokus des Beitrags ist außerdem auf der Verwendung der Relativsätze, denn der Gebrauch von Sätzen mit eingebetteten Strukturen stellt die größte Leistung der sprachlichen Entwicklung dar, und deren intensiver Erwerb erfolgt erst im Schulalter (Balija, Hržica, Kuvač Kraljević, 2012.). An der Untersuchung nahmen 20 Kinder jüngeren Schulalters teil – Acht- und Zehnjährige. Ihre Beherrschung von Satzarten wurde mittels des Bilderbuchs ‘Frog, where are you?’ (Mayer 1969) ermittelt. Die Ergebnisse haben gezeigt, dass Kinder jüngeren Schulalters unterschiedliche Satzstrukturen bilden. Sie bilden mehr komplexe als einfache Sätze, wobei mehrfach zusammengesetzte Sätze am häufigsten vorkommen. Es wurden auch koordinative Verbindungen festgestellt, d.h. kopulative und adversative Satzverbindungen, sowie der Gebrauch asyndetischer Konstruktionen. Unter den einfachen Sätzen sind erweiterte Sätze am meisten vertreten. Es gibt auch eine kleine Anzahl nicht erweiterter Sätze und nur einen verblosen Sat

PRIKAZ KONFERENCIJE: Važnost i izazovi provedbe programa prevencije seksualnog nasilja u školama

PRIKAZ KONFERENCIJE: Važnost i izazovi provedbe programa prevencije seksualnog nasilja u školam

Insolvency in the Republic of Croatia

The issue of insolvency is significantly present in countries undergoing transition. In Croatia, there has been significant research on the possibilities of using the existing models for determining the domestic companies’ ability to maintain solvency. Likewise, no model based on business enterprises’ financial data has yet been proposed, which leaves an open space for this research. The purpose of this paper is to calculate and analyse solvency indicators; total debt to assets ratio, total debt to equity ratio, Altman Z-score, and the Kralicek Quick Test. This paper analyses the financial data for the period 1996–2014 and provides evidence that the insolvency of Croatian companies increased with the global financial crisis. Multiple regression analysis is used in order to show the relation between total debt to assets ratio as the dependent variable, and current assets and liabilities ratio and dummy variables as independent variables. The conclusions and recommendations for mitigating the impact of insolvency in this paper would be useful for managers, public policymakers and all stakeholders in companies with financial problems, as well as for financially still-healthy companies

A Support System for Victims and Witnesses of Criminal Offences in Croatia: Compliance with International Requirements and Standards

Autorice u radu analiziraju sustav podrške žrtvama i svjedocima kaznenih djela u Hrvatskoj i usklađenost sustava sa zahtjevima međunarodnih standarda. Direktiva 2012/29/EU nalaže obvezu državama članicama za poduzimanje svih mjera za uspostavu općih i specijaliziranih službi za podršku žrtvama. Strategija EU-a za prava žrtava (2020.–2025.) prepoznaje potporu žrtvama kao jednu od najvažnijih mjera za Europsku komisiju i države članice u području zaštite prava i položaja žrtava kaznenih djela. Normativni kaznenopravni okvir prepoznao je pravo žrtava kaznenih djela na dostupan, povjerljiv i besplatan pristup službama za potporu. Da bi se moglo govoriti da su zahtjevi za učinkovitim sustavom podrške zaista i transponirani u naš sustav, osim normativnog okvira moraju biti ispunjeni i određeni preduvjeti. U radu se analizira dostupnost općih i specijaliziranih službi za podršku žrtvama, suradnja nacionalnih tijela i organizacija za potporu žrtvama, model upućivanja žrtava u njihova prava, kao i njegova funkcionalnost u praksi. Također, bit će navedene preporuke za rad sa žrtvama koje se temelje na rezultatima rada Mreže podrške i suradnje za žrtve i svjedoke kaznenih djela i na istraživanju provedenom sa žrtvama. Rad upućuje na strukturu žrtava koje se najčešće obraćaju za pomoć i podršku s obzirom na kaznena djela i na najčešće potrebe žrtava.In the paper, the authors analyse the current system of support for victims and witnesses of criminal offences in Croatia and the compliance of the system with the requirements of international standards. Directive 2012/29/EU obliges Member States to take all measures to establish general and specialised victim support services. The EU Strategy on Victims’ Rights (2020-2025) recognises support for victims as one of the most important measures for the European Commission and Members States in the area of protection of the rights and the situation of victims of criminal offences. The normative criminal legal framework recognises the right of victims of criminal offences to accessible, confidential, and free-of-charge access to support services. In order to be able to conclude that the requirements for an effective support system have really been transposed into the Croatian system, in addition to the normative framework, certain preconditions must also be met. The authors analyse the availability of general and specialised victim support services, the cooperation of national bodies and organisations for victim support, the model of informing victims of their rights, as well as its functionality in practice. Recommendations for working with victims are also listed, based on the results of the work of the Network of Support and Cooperation for victims and witnesses of criminal offences and research conducted with victims of criminal offences. This paper also points to the characteristics of victims who most often turn for help and support and the most common needs of victims

Ein typisches Opfer häuslicher Gewalt in Kroatien – ein soziodemografisches Profil

Nasilje u obitelji u posljednjih je petnaest godina prepoznato kao relevan-tan društveni problem u Hrvatskoj, što je rezultiralo nizom značajnih promjena u društvu: od promjene zakonodavstva, osiguravanja skloništa i savjetovališta za žrt-ve, provođenja istraživanja, pokretanja medijskih kampanja, razvoja prevencijskih programa za djecu i mlade do senzibilizacije javnosti. Međutim i dalje postoji niz pitanja i nepoznanica koje je nužno svladati da bi se žrtvama pružila odgovarajuća pomoć i podrška, kao i da bi se nastavilo raditi na što učinkovitijem suzbijanju na-silja u obitelji. Istraživanja pokazuju da postoji pozitivna povezanost između nasilnog ponašanja kod odrasle osobe i odrastanja u nasilnoj obitelji, odnosno zlostavljanja u djetinj-stvu. Prema postojećim statistikama o prisutnosti prijavljenog nasilja i nasilničkog ponašanja u obiteljima u RH od strane partnera uočava se značajan porast u odnosu na vrijeme prije rata. Proživljena trauma predstavlja velik problem za cjelokupno društvo. Ženska soba u suradnji s Uredom za ravnopravnost spolova Vlade RH 2010. godine provela je istraživanje „Zaštita prava i pružanje podrške žrtvama/ svjedocima nasilja u obitelji“ s ciljem utvrđivanja stvarnog stanja i potreba za zašt-itom žrtava/svjedoka nasilja u obitelji. Cilj je ovog rada dati opis tipične žrtve obi-teljskog nasilja temeljen na dobivenim podacima iz spomenutog istraživanja. Za potrebe istraživanja konstruiran je upitnik koji se sastojao od 52 pitanja (sociodemo-grafski podaci, iskustvo nasilja u djetinjstvu, u odrasloj dobi, trenutno iskustvo, pomoć za žrtve, prijava nasilja, nasilnik, iskustvo s nadležnim institucijama, poslije-dice nasilja). Podaci su prikupljeni za 183 sudionice žrtve obiteljskog nasilja iz cije-le Hrvatske, a koje su se u trenutku provedbe istraživanja nalazile na smještaju u skloništima za žrtve nasilja u obitelji ili su dolazile u savjetovališta namijenjena žrt-vama. Rezultati upućuju na to da tipična žrtva obiteljskog nasilja može biti bilo koja ženska osoba sociodemografskih obilježja karakterističnih za prosječnu ženu mlađe srednje dobi u RH. Slijedom dobivenih rezultata, potrebno je i nadalje usavršavati interdisciplinarni pristup u radu na problematici obiteljskog nasilja u svrhu njegova suzbijanja, pružanja odgovarajuće pomoći i podrške žrtvama nasilja, kao i zaštite njihova mentalnog zdravlja.In the past fifteen years, domestic violence has been recognized as a relevant social problem in Croatia, which has resulted in a series of significant changes in society: the changes of legislation, provision of shelter and counselling for victims, research implementation, media campaigns, the development of prevention programs for children and youth, raising public awareness. However, there remain a number of questions and issues that must be overcome in order to provide adequate assistance and support to victims, as well as to continue to work on a more efficient combating of domestic violence. Research has shown that there is a positive relationship between violent behaviour in adults and growing up in an abusive family, i.e. abuse during childhood. The current statistics on the reported violence and violent behaviour in Croatia, in which perpetrators were partners, reveal a significant increase compared to the time before the war. Experienced trauma poses a major problem for the entire society. In 2010, the Women’s Room, in cooperation with the Office for Gender Equality of the Government of Croatia, conducted a research: "The protection of the rights and providing support to victims/witnesses of domestic violence" in order to ascertain the actual situation and the need for protection of victims/witnesses of domestic violence. The aim of this paper is to provide a description of the typical victim of domestic violence, based on the data obtained from the above-mentioned research. For research purposes, a questionnaire was developed consisting of 52 questions (socio-demographic data, the experience of violence in childhood and in adulthood, the present experience, assistance for victims, reports of violence, perpetrator, experience with relevant institutions, the consequences of violence). Data were collected for 183 respondents, victims of domestic violence from across Croatia, who, at the time of the research, were accommodated in shelters for victims of domestic violence or visited counselling centers for victims. The results indicate that the typical victim of domestic violence can be any female of socio-demographic characteristics typical for the average younger middle age woman in Croatia. Considering the obtained results, it is necessary to continue to improve the interdisciplinary approach in dealing with issues of domestic violence, in order to combat violence, to provide adequate assistance and support to victims of violence as well as to protect their mental health.In den letzten fünfzehn Jahren ist häusliche Gewalt zu einem relevanten sozialen Problem in Kroatien geworden, was zu einer Reihe bedeutender Veränderungen in der Gesellschaft geführt hat: zur Änderung der Gesetzgebung, zur Sicherung von Unterkünften und Beratungsstellen für Betroffene, zu neuen Forschungsprojekten und Medienkampagnen, zur Entwicklung von Präventionsprogrammen für Kinder und Jugendliche sowie zur Aufklärung der Öffentlichkeit. Leider gibt es immer noch viele Fragen und Probleme, die bewältigt werden müssen, bevor den Opern angemessene Hilfe und Unterstützung gewährt und häusliche Gewalt auf effiziente Weise bekämpft werden kann. Forschungsergebnisse verweisen darauf, dass es einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen gewalttätigem Verhalten bei Erwachsenen und dem Aufwachsen in einer gewalttätigen Familie bzw. Kindesmissbrauch gibt. Aktuelle Statistiken über Anzeigen für häusliche Gewalt und gewalttätiges Verhalten in Kroatien von Seiten des Partners zeigen einen deutlichen Anstieg von Vorfällen im Vergleich zur Vorkriegszeit (Kroatienkrieg, Anm. d. Üb.). Die durchgemachten Traumata sind ein großes Problem für die ganze Gesellschaft. Die gemeinnützige Organisation Ženska soba (Zimmer für Frauen, Anm. d. Üb.) hat 2010 in Zusammenarbeit mit dem Amt für die Geschlechtergleichstellung eine Untersuchung mit dem Titel „Der Schutz der Rechte und die Unterstützung der Opfer oder Zeugen häuslicher Gewalt“ durchgeführt, um den wirklichen Stand der Lage zu ermitteln und notwendige Schutzmaßnahmen für Opfer und Zeugen häuslicher Gewalt zu treffen. Das Ziel dieser Studie ist es, eine Beschreibung des typischen Opfers häuslicher Gewalt anhand der gewonnenen Daten aus dem oben genannten Forschungsprojekt zu geben. Zu diesem Zweck wurde ein Fragebogen mit 52 Fragen ( über soziodemografische Daten, Erfahrungen von Gewalt in der Kindheit und im Erwachsenenalter, gegenwärtige Erfahrungen, Hilfe für die Opfer, Anzeigen von Gewalttätigkeit , die Täter, Erfahrungen mit den zuständigen Institutionen , die Folgen der Gewalttaten) zusammengestellt. Befragt wurden 183 Frauen, Opfer häuslicher Gewalt aus ganz Kroatien, die sich zur Zeit der Umfrage in Notunterkünften für Opfer häuslicher Gewalt befanden oder Beratungsstellen für Opfer aufgesucht haben. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass jede Frau mit den typischen soziodemografischen Eigenschaften, die eine durchschnittliche Frau mittleren Alters aus Kroatien hat, das typische Opfer häuslicher Gewalt werden kann. Die Ergebnisse weisen auf die Notwendigkeit einer Verbesserung des interdisziplinären Ansatzes bei Fragen häuslicher Gewalt, um potentielle Gewalttaten zu verhindern, den Opfern häuslicher Gewalt angemessene Hilfe und Unterstützung gewährleisten zu können sowie ihre psychische Gesundheit zu schützen

Problematische Genüsse: sexuelles Risikoverhalten in der Spätadoleszenz

U radu se analiziraju rasprostranjenost i strukturalne osobitosti rizičnog seksualnog ponašanja (RSP) u studentskoj populaciji. Uvodni dio obuhvaća definiranje RSP, pregled čimbenika vezanih uz razdoblje adolescencije koji ga potiču te kratki prikaz dosadašnjih istraživanja RSP adolescenata, i u nas i u inozemstvu. Središnji dio, posvećen testiranju hipoteza o sveprisutnosti, spolnoj specifičnosti, sekvencijalnoj organiziranosti te kontekstualnoj racionalnosti RSP, temelji se na istraživanju provedenom krajem 1998. godine na većem uzorku (N=1355) novoupisane studentske populacije Sveučilišta u Zagrebu. Rezultati podupiru prve tri hipoteze, ali samo djelomično četvrtu – sugerirajući kako je psihička pozadina adolescentskoga RSP kombinacija racionalnih i iracionalnih (habitualnih) elemenata. U zaključku se autori dotiču i pragmatičnih aspekata analize RSP, to jest pitanja prevencije u sustavnoj seksualnoj edukaciji – kakvu u Hrvatskoj nikada nismo imali.The paper examines the extent and structural characteristics of sexual risk-taking (SRT) in student population. The introductory section offers a definition of SRT, the age specific contributing factors, and a brief overview of related bihevioral research – including all the studies carried out in Croatia (1973-1998). Four hypotheses regarding SRT in late adolescence are tested in the empirical part of the paper, which is based on data collected in the 1998 survey on sexual knowledge, attitudes and behavior carried out on 1355 freshmen at the University of Zagreb. The results confirm the first three hypotheses (regarding the normalcy or omnipresence of SRT, gender specific and sequentially organized structure of SRT), but offer only partial support for the contextual rationality thesis, suggesting instead a complex interplay of rational and irrational (habitual) elements as the psychological background of SRT. The concluding section discusses also more pragmatic, i. e. the applied aspects of the research on SRT, calling for SRT prevention in Croatia through comprehensive school-based sexual education.Die Arbeit analysiert Verbreitung und strukturelle Spezifika sexuellen Risikoverhaltens (kroat. Abkürzung: RSP) in der Bevölkerungsgruppe der kroatischen Studenten. Der einleitende Teil der Arbeit umfasst die Definition sexuellen Risikoverhaltens, ferner eine Übersicht adoleszenzbedingter Faktoren, die besagtes Risikoverhalten anregen, sowie eine kurze Darstellung bisheriger, sowohl in- als auch ausländischer Forschungsarbeiten über sexuelles Risikoverhaltens unter Adoleszenten. Im mittleren Teil der Studie soll die Hypothese von der allgemeinen Präsenz, geschlechtlichens Spezifizität, sequenzmäßigen Organisiertheit sowie der sog. kontextuellen Rationalität sexuellen Risikoverhalten überprüft werden; die Verfasser stützen sich dabei auf eine Meinungsumfrage, die Ende 1998 unter einer größeren Zahl (N=1355) neu eingeschriebener Studenten der Zagreber Universität durchgeführt wurde. Die Ergebnisse bestätigen drei von insgesamt vier aufgestellten Hypothesen, die vierte Hypothese konnte nur teilweise untermauert werden. Es wird suggeriert, dass der psychische Hintergrund sexuellen Risikoverhaltens unter Jugendlichen eine Kombination rationaler und irrationaler (habitueller) Elemente ist. Die Verfasser gehen abschließend auf pragmatische Aspekte in der Analyse sexuellen Risikoverhaltens ein, d.h. auf die Frage der Vorbeugung mittels geschlechtlicher Edukation, wie sie hierzulande noch nicht bekannt ist