Evidence-based decision support for pediatric rheumatology reduces diagnostic errors.

BACKGROUND: The number of trained specialists world-wide is insufficient to serve all children with pediatric rheumatologic disorders, even in the countries with robust medical resources. We evaluated the potential of diagnostic decision support software (DDSS) to alleviate this shortage by assessing the ability of such software to improve the diagnostic accuracy of non-specialists. METHODS: Using vignettes of actual clinical cases, clinician testers generated a differential diagnosis before and after using diagnostic decision support software. The evaluation used the SimulConsult® DDSS tool, based on Bayesian pattern matching with temporal onset of each finding in each disease. The tool covered 5405 diseases (averaging 22 findings per disease). Rheumatology content in the database was developed using both primary references and textbooks. The frequency, timing, age of onset and age of disappearance of findings, as well as their incidence, treatability, and heritability were taken into account in order to guide diagnostic decision making. These capabilities allowed key information such as pertinent negatives and evolution over time to be used in the computations. Efficacy was measured by comparing whether the correct condition was included in the differential diagnosis generated by clinicians before using the software ( unaided ), versus after use of the DDSS ( aided ). RESULTS: The 26 clinicians demonstrated a significant reduction in diagnostic errors following introduction of the software, from 28% errors while unaided to 15% using decision support (p \u3c 0.0001). Improvement was greatest for emergency medicine physicians (p = 0.013) and clinicians in practice for less than 10 years (p = 0.012). This error reduction occurred despite the fact that testers employed an open book approach to generate their initial lists of potential diagnoses, spending an average of 8.6 min using printed and electronic sources of medical information before using the diagnostic software. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that decision support can reduce diagnostic errors and improve use of relevant information by generalists. Such assistance could potentially help relieve the shortage of experts in pediatric rheumatology and similarly underserved specialties by improving generalists\u27 ability to evaluate and diagnose patients presenting with musculoskeletal complaints. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT02205086

Extragalactic Radio Continuum Surveys and the Transformation of Radio Astronomy

Next-generation radio surveys are about to transform radio astronomy by discovering and studying tens of millions of previously unknown radio sources. These surveys will provide new insights to understand the evolution of galaxies, measuring the evolution of the cosmic star formation rate, and rivalling traditional techniques in the measurement of fundamental cosmological parameters. By observing a new volume of observational parameter space, they are also likely to discover unexpected new phenomena. This review traces the evolution of extragalactic radio continuum surveys from the earliest days of radio astronomy to the present, and identifies the challenges that must be overcome to achieve this transformational change.Comment: To be published in Nature Astronomy 18 Sept 201

Neural crest migration is driven by a few trailblazer cells with a unique molecular signature narrowly confined to the invasive front

Neural crest (NC) cell migration is crucial to the formation of peripheral tissues during vertebrate development. However, how NC cells respond to different microenvironments to maintain persistence of direction and cohesion in multicellular streams remains unclear. To address this, we profiled eight subregions of a typical cranial NC cell migratory stream. Hierarchical clustering showed significant differences in the expression profiles of the lead three subregions compared with newly emerged cells. Multiplexed imaging of mRNA expression using fluorescent hybridization chain reaction (HCR) quantitatively confirmed the expression profiles of lead cells. Computational modeling predicted that a small fraction of lead cells that detect directional information is optimal for successful stream migration. Single-cell profiling then revealed a unique molecular signature that is consistent and stable over time in a subset of lead cells within the most advanced portion of the migratory front, which we term trailblazers. Model simulations that forced a lead cell behavior in the trailing subpopulation predicted cell bunching near the migratory domain entrance. Misexpression of the trailblazer molecular signature by perturbation of two upstream transcription factors agreed with the in silico prediction and showed alterations to NC cell migration distance and stream shape. These data are the first to characterize the molecular diversity within an NC cell migratory stream and offer insights into how molecular patterns are transduced into cell behaviors

Cancer recurrence times from a branching process model

As cancer advances, cells often spread from the primary tumor to other parts of the body and form metastases. This is the main cause of cancer related mortality. Here we investigate a conceptually simple model of metastasis formation where metastatic lesions are initiated at a rate which depends on the size of the primary tumor. The evolution of each metastasis is described as an independent branching process. We assume that the primary tumor is resected at a given size and study the earliest time at which any metastasis reaches a minimal detectable size. The parameters of our model are estimated independently for breast, colorectal, headneck, lung and prostate cancers. We use these estimates to compare predictions from our model with values reported in clinical literature. For some cancer types, we find a remarkably wide range of resection sizes such that metastases are very likely to be present, but none of them are detectable. Our model predicts that only very early resections can prevent recurrence, and that small delays in the time of surgery can significantly increase the recurrence probability.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 4 table

The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.

We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.This work is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS), China; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and UK Researchand Innovation (UKRI)/NIHR through the UK Coro-navirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC). Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples and collation of data wasundertaken by the COG-UK CONSORTIUM. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical ResearchCouncil (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI),the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR),and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. T.I.d.S. is supported by a Well-come Trust Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (110058/Z/15/Z). L.T. is supported by the Wellcome Trust(grant number 205228/Z/16/Z) and by theUniversity of Liverpool Centre for Excellence in Infectious DiseaseResearch (CEIDR). S.D. is funded by an NIHR GlobalResearch Professorship (NIHR300791). L.T. and S.C.M.are also supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Medical Countermeasures Initiative contract75F40120C00085 and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) inEmerging and Zoonotic Infections (NIHR200907) at University of Liverpool inpartnership with Public HealthEngland (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford.L.T. is based at the University of Liverpool. M.D.P. is funded by the NIHR Sheffield Biomedical ResearchCentre (BRC – IS-BRC-1215-20017). ISARIC4C is supported by the MRC (grant no MC_PC_19059). J.C.K.is a Wellcome Investigator (WT204969/Z/16/Z) and supported by NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centreand CIFMS. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or MRC

The impact of biologics and tofacitinib on cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in patients with rheumatic disease: a systematic literature review

Introduction Rheumatic diseases are autoimmune, inflammatory diseases often associated with cardiovascular (CV) disease, a major cause of mortality in these patients. In recent years, treatment with biologic and targeted synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs), either as monotherapy or in combination with other drugs, have become the standard of treatment. In this systematic literature review, we evaluated the effect of treatment with biologic or tofacitinib on the CV risk and outcomes in these patients. Methods A systematic search was performed in MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for articles reporting on CV risk and events in patients with rheumatic disease treated with a biologic agent or tofacitinib. Articles identified were subjected to two levels of screening. Articles that passed the first level based on title and abstract were assessed on full-text evaluation. The quality of randomized clinical trials was assessed by Jadad scoring system and the quality of the other studies and abstracts was assessed using the Downs and Black instrument. The data extracted included study design, baseline patient characteristics, and measurements of CV risk and events. Results Of the 5722 articles identified in the initial search, screening yielded 105 unique publications from 90 unique studies (33 clinical trials, 39 prospective cohort studies, and an additional 18 retrospective studies) that reported CV risk outcomes. A risk of bias analysis for each type of report indicated that they were of good or excellent quality. Importantly, despite some limitations in data reported, there were no indications of significant increase in adverse CV events or risk in response to treatment with the agents evaluated. Conclusions Treatment with biologic or tofacitinib appears to be well-tolerated with respect to CV outcomes in these patients

The impact of currently licensed therapies on viral and immune responses in Chronic Hepatitis B: considerations for future novel therapeutics.

Despite the availability of a preventative vaccine, chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains a global healthcare challenge with the risk of disease progression due to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although current treatment strategies, interferon and nucleos(t)ide analogues have contributed to reducing morbidity and mortality related to CHB, these therapies are limited in providing functional cure. The treatment paradigm in CHB is rapidly evolving with a number of new agents in the developmental pipeline. However, until novel agents with functional cure capability are available in the clinical setting, there is a pressing need to optimize currently licensed therapies. Here, we discuss current agents used alone and/or in combination strategies along with the impact of these therapies on viral and immune responses. Novel treatment strategies are outlined, and the potential role of current therapies in the employment of pipeline agents is discussedWellcome Trust Clinical Research Training Fellowship (107389/Z/15/Z)NIHR Academic Clinical LectureshipBarts Charity Project Grants (723/1795 and MGU/0406NIHR Research for patient benefit award (PB‐PG‐0614‐34087) to PTF