67 research outputs found
HEAT BALANCE AND MEAN MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS IN THE POLAR STRATOSPHERE DURING THE SUDDEN WARMING OF JANUARY 1958
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established to study and intercompare climate simulations made with coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land GCMs. There are two main phases (CMIP1 and CMIP2), which study, respectively, 1) the ability of models to simulate current climate, and 2) model simulations of climate change due to an idealized change in forcing (a 1% per year CO2 increase). Results from a number of CMIP projects were reported at the first CMIP Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia, in October 1998. Some recent advances in global coupled modeling related to CMIP were also reported. Presentations were based on preliminary unpublished results. Key outcomes from the workshop were that 1) many observed aspects of climate variability are simulated in global coupled models including the North Atlantic oscillation and its linkages to North Atlantic SSTs, El Niño-like events, and monsoon interannual variability; 2) the amplitude of both high- and low-frequency global mean surface temperature variability in many global coupled models is less than that observed, with the former due in part to simulated ENSO in the models being generally weaker than observed, and the latter likely to be at least partially due to the uncertainty in the estimates of past radiative forcing; 3) an El Niño-like pattern in the mean SST response with greater surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the western equatorial Pacific is found by a number of models in global warming climate change experiments, but other models have a more spatially uniform or even a La Niña-like, response; 4) flux adjustment, by definition, improves the simulation of mean present-day climate over oceans, does not guarantee a drift-free climate, but can produce a stable base state in some models to enable very long term (1000 yr and longer) integrations-in these models it does not appear to have a major effect on model processes or model responses to increasing CO2; and 5) recent multicentury integrations show that a stable surface climate can be attained without flux adjustment (though still with some systematic simulation errors)
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Using transport diagnostics to understand chemistry climate model ozone simulations
We use observations of N2O and mean age to identify realistic transport in models in order to explain their ozone predictions. The results are applied to 15 chemistry climate models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O, mean age and their compact correlation identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. This process‐oriented diagnostic is more useful than mean age alone because it identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. The diagnosed model transport behavior is related to a model’s ability to produce realistic lower stratosphere (LS) O3 profiles. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems compare poorly with O3 observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) CCMVal Report to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return‐to‐1980 dates for global (60°S–60°N) and Antarctic column ozone. Antarctic O3 return dates are generally correlated with vortex Cly levels, and vortex Cly is generally correlated with the model’s circulation, although model Cl chemistry and conservation problems also have a significant effect on return date. In both regions, models with good LS transport and chemistry produce a smaller range of predictions for the return‐to‐1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily broad due to identifiable model deficiencies
Early inhaled budesonide for the prevention of bronchopulmonary dysplasia
BACKGROUND Systemic glucocorticoids reduce the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia among extremely preterm infants, but they may compromise brain development. The effects of inhaled glucocorticoids on outcomes in these infants are unclear. METHODS We randomly assigned 863 infants (gestational age, 23 weeks 0 days to 27 weeks 6 days) to early (within 24 hours after birth) inhaled budesonide or placebo until they no longer required oxygen and positive-pressure support or until they reached a postmenstrual age of 32 weeks 0 days. The primary outcome was death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia, confirmed by means of standardized oxygen-saturation monitoring, at a postmenstrual age of 36 weeks. RESULTS A total of 175 of 437 infants assigned to budesonide for whom adequate data were available (40.0%), as compared with 194 of 419 infants assigned to placebo for whom adequate data were available (46.3%), died or had bronchopulmonary dysplasia (relative risk, stratified according to gestational age, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.00; P = 0.05). The incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia was 27.8% in the budesonide group versus 38.0% in the placebo group (relative risk, stratified according to gestational age, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.91; P = 0.004); death occurred in 16.9% and 13.6% of the patients, respectively (relative risk, stratified according to gestational age, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.69; P = 0.17). The proportion of infants who required surgical closure of a patent ductus arteriosus was lower in the budesonide group than in the placebo group (relative risk, stratified according to gestational age, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.83; P = 0.004), as was the proportion of infants who required reintubation (relative risk, stratified according to gestational age, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.96; P = 0.03). Rates of other neonatal illnesses and adverse events were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS Among extremely preterm infants, the incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia was lower among those who received early inhaled budesonide than among those who received placebo, but the advantage may have been gained at the expense of increased mortality
Aquecimento global: efeitos no crescimento, no desenvolvimento e na produtividade de batata
Numerical Methods Of Computing Three-Dimensional Trajectories For Adiabatic And Diabatic Flows
U.S. Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories
Research Project MIPR ES-7-967http://archive.org/details/numericalmethods52mah
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