Trade Potential and UN Peacekeeping Participation

The determinants of a country's UN peacekeeping troop contribution have been persistently studied. Trade, as a crucial self-interest motivation, is one of the important explanatory variables in the extant literature. However, the existing literature presents mixed results on the influence of trade on peacekeeping troop contributions. To capture the effect of trade on contributions precisely, we need to model expectations about future trade volume in a better way. Countries are pressured by the economic and political risks caused by the trade disruption and lobby groups to send peacekeeping troops to enable future trade or secure future investments. Therefore, trade potential, rather than realized trade, drives peacekeeping troop contributions. A gravity model is used to measure the trade potential between the UN peacekeeping mission countries and contributors, and test its relationship with the UN peacekeeping participation. Based on this measurement and a dyadic troop contribution dataset covering the period from 1990 to 2012, this article demonstrates that the counter-factual predictive trade volume is a relevant predictor of UN peacekeeping troop contributions

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Trade Response to Economic Regionalism in BIMSTEC

The wave of globalisation gave rise to a number of regional arrangements. The notion of economic regionalism gained importance rapidly in international trade as well as regional diplomacy. The body of theoretical and empirical literature suggests that economic regionalism is beneficial for trade flows and economic welfare, but some studies find it as a stumbling block for multilateral liberalisation efforts. The fundamental analytical questions are whether the groups demonstrate significant impetus to expand intra-bloc trade and whether a preferential liberalisation within theregional arrangement results in non-trivial mutual gains. To address these queries,this thesis investigates the trade pattern, potential and effects of a comparatively newregional group, Bay of Bengal for Multi-Sectoral Technical and EconomicCooperation (BIMSTEC).To examine the trade pattern of BIMSTEC countries, it adopts an augmented panel gravity model. The results reveal that imports of the member countries follow the Linder hypothesis, while exports can be explained by Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson theorem. Controlling for behind and beyond the border constraints, the results of astochastic frontier gravity model also support these findings. Such constraints are found to explain most of the total variation in imports and exports. The results also suggest that the highest trade potential, estimated by the frontier gravity model, turns out to be significant. Every members of the group can substantially expand intra-BIMSTEC trade if the constraints are either removed or kept at the minimum.This thesis finally examines the possible effects of an FTA within BIMSTEC by trade policy simulation tools, Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade(SMART) and Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The results of SMARTsimulations indicate that significant gains can be obtained from an FTA in terms of trade and welfare effects. Conversely, revenue effects appear to be disproportionate. Smaller members like Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka would experience proportionately higher revenue loss compared to bigger members such asIndia and Thailand. It suggests that smaller members deserve technical support and compensation to offset negative incidences. The GTAP simulations suggest that only Bangladesh would incur a net welfare loss and a negative growth of real GDP by joining the FTA. The group as a whole would end up with a trade deficit, although India would enjoy a trade surplus. Intra-bloc trade would increase substantially in most of the sectors except for Myanmar. The simulation result also implies that despite some country-and sector-specific negative effects, the impact on overall economic growth would be positive by initiating an FTA

BanglaBook: A Large-scale Bangla Dataset for Sentiment Analysis from Book Reviews

The analysis of consumer sentiment, as expressed through reviews, can provide a wealth of insight regarding the quality of a product. While the study of sentiment analysis has been widely explored in many popular languages, relatively less attention has been given to the Bangla language, mostly due to a lack of relevant data and cross-domain adaptability. To address this limitation, we present BanglaBook, a large-scale dataset of Bangla book reviews consisting of 158,065 samples classified into three broad categories: positive, negative, and neutral. We provide a detailed statistical analysis of the dataset and employ a range of machine learning models to establish baselines including SVM, LSTM, and Bangla-BERT. Our findings demonstrate a substantial performance advantage of pre-trained models over models that rely on manually crafted features, emphasizing the necessity for additional training resources in this domain. Additionally, we conduct an in-depth error analysis by examining sentiment unigrams, which may provide insight into common classification errors in under-resourced languages like Bangla. Our codes and data are publicly available at https://github.com/mohsinulkabir14/BanglaBook.Comment: Accepted in ACL Findings 202

Advancements in Early Detection of Lung Cancer in Public Health: A Comprehensive Study Utilizing Machine Learning Algorithms and Predictive Models

Lung cancer stands as the leading cause of death in the United States, attributed to factors such as the spontaneous growth of malignant tumors in the lungs that can metastasize to other parts of the body, posing severe threats. Notably, smoking emerges as a predominant external factor contributing to lung problems and ultimately leading to lung cancer. Nevertheless, early detection presents a pivotal strategy for preventing this lethal disease. Leveraging machine learning, we aspire to develop robust algorithms capable of predicting lung cancer at its nascent stage. Such a model could prove instrumental in aiding physicians in making informed decisions during the diagnostic process, determining whether a patient necessitates an intensive or standard level of diagnosis. This approach holds the potential to significantly reduce treatment costs, as physicians can tailor the treatment plan based on accurate predictions, thereby avoiding unnecessary and costly interventions. Our goal is to establish a sustainable model that accurately predicts the disease, and our findings reveal that XGBoost outperformed other models, achieving an impressive accuracy level of 96.92%. In comparison, LightGBM, AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine achieved accuracies of 93.50%, 92.32%, 67.41%, and 88.02%, respectively

Improving reliability performance of diffusion-based molecular communication with adaptive threshold variation algorithm

Reliability is a vital issue in the area of communication. In this paper, we particularly investigate the reliability issue for diffusion‐based molecular communication. First, we present the communication process in system model, where a classified model is further developed at the side of receiver to divide received molecules into signal, inter‐symbol interference, and noise branches. The classified model is used to prove the feasibility and necessity of improving the reliability performance. Second, an adaptive threshold variation (ATV) algorithm is designed to be able to improve the reliability performance that enables the receiver to adapt the channel condition properly through learning process. Furthermore, the complexity of ATV and the performance in various noisy conditions are discussed. An expression of signal to interference plus noise ratio is defined in numerical simulation to verify our goal with variational parameters, as well as with the adoption of ATV algorithm. The results indicate that ATV algorithm works well in general case in improving reliability performance for diffusion‐based molecular communication