23 research outputs found

    Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models.

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    We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved

    Improving primary health care delivery in Bihar, India: Learning from piloting and statewide scale-up of Ananya

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    © 2020 The Author(s) JoGH © 2020 ISGH In 2010, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)partnered with the Government of Bihar (GoB), India to launch the Ananya program to improve reproductive, maternal,newborn and child health and nutrition (RMNCHN)outcomes. The program sought to address supply and demand-side barriers to the adoption, coverage, quality, equity and health impact of select RMNCHN interventions. Approaches included strengthening frontline worker service delivery; social and behavior change communications; layering of health, nutrition and sanitation into women\u27s selfhelp groups (SHGs); and quality improvement in maternal and newborn care at primary health care facilities. Ananya program interventions were piloted in approximately 28 million population in eight innovation districts from 2011-2013, and then beginning in 2014, were scaled up by the GoB across the rest of the state\u27s population of 104 million.A Bihar Technical Support Programprovided techno-managerial support to governmental Health as well as Integrated Child Development Services, and the JEEViKA Technical Support Program supported health layering and scale-up of the GoB\u27s SHG program. The level of support at the block level during statewide scale-up in 2014 onwards was approximately one-fourth that provided in the pilot phase of Ananya in 2011-2013. This paper — the first manuscript in an 11-manuscript and 2-viewpoint collection on Learning from Ananya: Lessons for primary health care performance improvement — seeks to provide a broad description of Ananya and subsequent statewide adaptation and scaleup, and capture the background and context, key objectives, interventions, delivery approaches and evaluation methods of this expansive program. Subsequent papers in this collection focuson specific intervention delivery platforms. For the analyses in this series, Stanford University held key informant interviews and worked with the technical support and evaluation grantees of the Ananya program, as well as leadership from the India Country Office of the BMGF, to analyse and synthesise data from multiple sources. Capturing lessons from the Ananya pilot program, and statewide scale-up will assist program managers and policymakers to more effectively design and implement RMNCHN programs at scale through technical assistance to government

    Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent: a comparison of predictions from three transmission models

    No full text
    We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40 days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1–3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20 days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1 year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved
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