Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin : present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change

We present estimates of the present and future deposition of atmospheric nitrogen into the Baltic Sea made using the Eulerian chemical transport model MATCH, and compare these with earlier model estimates. The average total nitrogen deposition for periods of five to ten years from 1992 to 2001 was estimated to be in the range of 261-300 Gg N yr(-1). The deposition across the whole catchment area for 2001 was estimated to be 1.55-1.73 Tg N yr(-1). Inter-annual variability of nitrogen deposition into the Baltic Sea was calculated to be in the range of 5.1%-8.0%. Investigating one climate change scenario using emissions for year 2000 indicated a rather small impact on total deposition of nitrogen due to climate change, i.e. increase of total nitrogen deposition by similar to 5% by the end of the 21st century as compared with present conditions. The combined effect of climate change and future changes in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere remains an open question. Additional climate change scenarios using different combinations of global and regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios need to be explored

A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe

The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000–2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone–relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (mo3 − T, climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty

The vulnerability of northern European vegetation to ozone damage in a changing climate. An assessment based on current knowledge

The potential vulnerability of vegetation at northern latitudes to ozone damage was assessed based on current knowledge with regard to air ozone concentrations and leaf ozone uptake as well as to plant traits affecting ozone tolerance. The focus was on the northern European arctic, alpine and northern boreal vegetation zones, with a special focus on high-altitude vegetation. In particular, we analysed if there are increasing risks for ozone impacts on northern vegetation due to high spring ozone concentrations in relation to climate change induced shifts such as e.g. an earlier start of the growing season. The current state of knowledge implies that ecosystems in the far north are not more susceptible to ozone than vegetation in other parts of Europe. Hence, we cannot advocate for a stronger reduction of ozone precursors emissions based exclusively on the ozone sensitivity of vegetation in the far north. Thus, policies designed to reduce emissions of ozone precursors to protect vegetation in other parts of Europe as well as in the entire northern hemisphere are likely to suffice to protect vegetation in northern Fennoscandia.The report describes an assessment of the potential vulnerability of far northern European vegetation to ozone damage in a changing climate. Scientists from Sweden, Norway and Finland have joined in and the assessments rely on the experience and expertise of the authors. We could not find evidence that expected changes in ozone concentrations and climate would make the northern arctic, alpine and subalpine vegetation substantially more vulnerable to ozone than other types of European vegetation

Servicios urbanos integrados para las ciudades europeas: el ejemplo de Estocolmo

El concepto de servicio hidrometeorológico, climático y medioambiental urbano integrado ha sido propuesto por la OMM para satisfacer las necesidades futuras de sus Miembros, especialmente para lograr los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas. UrbanSIS en Estocolmo es una excelente demostración de una iniciativa de integración de diversas disciplinas científicas de una forma holística e innovadora. Los modelos meteorológicos, de calidad del aire e hidrológicos se usan para proporcionar datos de alta resolución espacial (1 km) y temporal (15 minutos a 1 hora) para el diseño y la planificación urbanas de manera vanguardista y ecocéntrica. La iniciativa de la OMM se emprendió cooperativamente y en colaboración con otras ciudades –Bolonia y Rotterdam– para desarrollar y generalizar eficientemente su capacidad. La OMM está siguiendo la Guía para los servicios hidrometeorológicos, climáticos y medioambientales urbanos integrados, Parte 1: Concepto y Metodología con ejemplos adicionales de ciudades de muestra con la mayor diversidad económica, geográfica y de riesgos

Nanoparticle emissions from the transport sector: health and policy impacts - the nPETS concept

Road, rail, air, and sea transport generate a major fraction of outdoor ultrafine particles. However, there is no common methodology for comparable sub 100 nm particle emissions measurement. This paper presents the nPETS (grant agreement No 954377) concept to understand and mitigate the effects of emerging non-regulated nanoparticle emissions. This paper presents the concept and selected results. For example, nucleation and condensation mechanisms occur more frequently in the urban background site, leading to new particle formation, while mostly fresh emissions are measured in the traffic site.This work is part of nPETS, a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 954377Peer reviewe

Is the ozone climate penalty robust in Europe?

Ozone air pollution is identified as one of the main threats bearing upon human health and ecosystems, with 25 000 deaths in 2005 attributed to surface ozone in Europe (IIASA 2013 TSAP Report #10). In addition, there is a concern that climate change could negate ozone pollution mitigation strategies, making them insufficient over the long run and jeopardising chances to meet the long term objective set by the European Union Directive of 2008 (Directive 2008/50/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008) (60 ppbv, daily maximum). This effect has been termed the ozone climate penalty. One way of assessing this climate penalty is by driving chemistry-transport models with future climate projections while holding the ozone precursor emissions constant (although the climate penalty may also be influenced by changes in emission of precursors). Here we present an analysis of the robustness of the climate penalty in Europe across time periods and scenarios by analysing the databases underlying 11 articles published on the topic since 2007, i.e. a total of 25 model projections. This substantial body of literature has never been explored to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the climate ozone penalty because of the use of different scenarios, time periods and ozone metrics. Despite the variability of model design and setup in this database of 25 model projection, the present meta-analysis demonstrates the significance and robustness of the impact of climate change on European surface ozone with a latitudinal gradient from a penalty bearing upon large parts of continental Europe and a benefit over the North Atlantic region of the domain. Future climate scenarios present a penalty for summertime (JJA) surface ozone by the end of the century (2071-2100) of at most 5 ppbv. Over European land surfaces, the 95% confidence interval of JJA ozone change is [0.44; 0.64] and [0.99; 1.50] ppbv for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time windows, respectively

ECLAIRE third periodic report

The ÉCLAIRE project (Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems) is a four year (2011-2015) project funded by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (FP7)

ECLAIRE: Effects of Climate Change on Air Pollution Impacts and Response Strategies for European Ecosystems. Project final report

The central goal of ECLAIRE is to assess how climate change will alter the extent to which air pollutants threaten terrestrial ecosystems. Particular attention has been given to nitrogen compounds, especially nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3), as well as Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOCs) in relation to tropospheric ozone (O3) formation, including their interactions with aerosol components. ECLAIRE has combined a broad program of field and laboratory experimentation and modelling of pollution fluxes and ecosystem impacts, advancing both mechanistic understanding and providing support to European policy makers. The central finding of ECLAIRE is that future climate change is expected to worsen the threat of air pollutants on Europe’s ecosystems. Firstly, climate warming is expected to increase the emissions of many trace gases, such as agricultural NH3, the soil component of NOx emissions and key BVOCs. Experimental data and numerical models show how these effects will tend to increase atmospheric N deposition in future. By contrast, the net effect on tropospheric O3 is less clear. This is because parallel increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will offset the temperature-driven increase for some BVOCs, such as isoprene. By contrast, there is currently insufficient evidence to be confident that CO2 will offset anticipated climate increases in monoterpene emissions. Secondly, climate warming is found to be likely to increase the vulnerability of ecosystems towards air pollutant exposure or atmospheric deposition. Such effects may occur as a consequence of combined perturbation, as well as through specific interactions, such as between drought, O3, N and aerosol exposure. These combined effects of climate change are expected to offset part of the benefit of current emissions control policies. Unless decisive mitigation actions are taken, it is anticipated that ongoing climate warming will increase agricultural and other biogenic emissions, posing a challenge for national emissions ceilings and air quality objectives related to nitrogen and ozone pollution. The O3 effects will be further worsened if progress is not made to curb increases in methane (CH4) emissions in the northern hemisphere. Other key findings of ECLAIRE are that: 1) N deposition and O3 have adverse synergistic effects. Exposure to ambient O3 concentrations was shown to reduce the Nitrogen Use Efficiency of plants, both decreasing agricultural production and posing an increased risk of other forms of nitrogen pollution, such as nitrate leaching (NO3-) and the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O); 2) within-canopy dynamics for volatile aerosol can increase dry deposition and shorten atmospheric lifetimes; 3) ambient aerosol levels reduce the ability of plants to conserve water under drought conditions; 4) low-resolution mapping studies tend to underestimate the extent of local critical loads exceedance; 5) new dose-response functions can be used to improve the assessment of costs, including estimation of the value of damage due to air pollution effects on ecosystems, 6) scenarios can be constructed that combine technical mitigation measures with dietary change options (reducing livestock products in food down to recommended levels for health criteria), with the balance between the two strategies being a matter for future societal discussion. ECLAIRE has supported the revision process for the National Emissions Ceilings Directive and will continue to deliver scientific underpinning into the future for the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution

Sulphur simulations for East Asia using the MATCH model with meteorological data from ECMWF

As part of a model intercomparison exercise, with participants from a number of Asian, European and American institutes, sulphur transport and conversion calculations were conducted over an East Asian domain for 2 different months in 1993. All participants used the same emission inventory and simulated concentration and deposition at a number of prescribed geographic locations. The participants were asked to run their respective model both with standard parameters, and with a set of given parameters, in order to exarnine the different behaviour of the models. The study included comparison with measured data and model-to-model intercomparisons, notably source-receptor relationships. We hereby describe the MATCH model, used in the study, and report some typical results. We find that although the standard and the prescribed set of model parameters differed significantly in terms of sulphur conversion and wet scavenging rate, the resulting change in atmospheric concentrations and surface depositions only change marginally. We show that it is often more critical to choose a representative gridbox value than selecting a parameter from the suite available. The modelled, near-surface, atmospheric concentration of sulphur in eastem China is typically 5-10 μg S m-3, with large areas exceeding 20 μg S m-3. In southem Japan the values range from 2-5 μg Sm-3. Atmospheric SO2  dominates over sulphate near the emission regions while sulphate concentrations are higher over e.g. the western Pacific. The sulphur deposition exceeds several g sulphur m-2 year-1 in large areas of China. Southem Japan receives 0.5-1 g S m-2 year-1. In January, the total wet deposition roughly equals the dry deposition, in May - when it rains more in the domain - total wet deposition is ca. 50% larger than total dry deposition