Quantifying the Effect of Wind on Volcanic Plumes: Implications for Plume Modeling

The considerable effects that wind can have on estimates of mass eruption rates (MERs) in explosive eruptions based on volcanic plume height are well known but difficult to quantify rigorously. Many explicitly wind-affected plume models have the additional difficulty that they require the use of centerline heights of bent-over plumes, a parameter not easily obtained directly from observational data. We tested two such models by using the time series of varying plume heights and windspeeds of the 2010 eruption. The mapped fallout and photos taken during this eruption allow us to estimate the plume geometry and to empirically constrain input parameters for the two models tested. Two strategies are presented to correct the difference in maximum plume height and centerline height: (a) based on plume radius, and (b) by using the plume type parameter Π, which quantifies the relative influence of buoyancy and cross-wind on the plume dynamics, to discriminate weak, intermediate and strong plumes. The results indicate that it may be more appropriate to classify plumes as either wind-dominated, intermediate or buoyancy-dominated, where the relative effects of both wind and MER define the type. The analysis of the Eyjafjallajökull data shows that the MER estimates from both models are considerably improved when a plume-type dependent centerline-correction is applied. For one model, we varied the wind entrainment coefficient β. For this particular eruption, we find that the best value for β lies between 0.28 and 0.36, unlike previous suggestions that set this parameter to 0.50.Icelandic Research Fund. Grant number:206527-051Pre-print (óritrýnt handrit

The Relationship Between Lava Fountaining and Vent Morphology for the 2014–2015 Holuhraun Eruption, Iceland, Analyzed by Video Monitoring and Topographic Mapping

Fissure eruptions are associated with lava fountains which often show complex distinct venting activity in pulsating form, and the development of characteristic morphological features such as scoria or spatter cones. Most morphological studies are based on observations of old structures and are not related to direct observations and systematic records of vent activity. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption site, Iceland, offered an exceptional opportunity to study the location and evolution of these cones and their relationship to venting dynamics in unprecedented detail. Here we analyze records from lava fountain activity at distinguished vents, captured during the 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption, and compare them with the morphology of spatter cones that developed. We conducted a fieldwork mapping project combining terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) aerophoto techniques to characterize the cone morphologies. We recorded videos of the eruption and used edge detection and particle image velocimetry to estimate venting heights and particle velocities. We find that the number of active vents producing lava fountains decreases from 57 along the whole line of fire to 10 lava fountains at distinct vents during the first 5 days of the eruption. We suggest that this happens by channeling the magma supply in the subsurface developing conduits. Thereby we see that at the locations where spatter cone morphology developed, the strongest and the highest lava fountains with high ejection velocities were recorded on the very first days of the eruption. In addition, the sites that eventually developed moderate or weak cone morphologies were identified as less active lava fountain locations during the early stage of the eruption. The comparison of our topographic datasets shows that the spatter cones remained similar in shape but increased in size as the eruption progressed. In addition, we suggest that the observed changes in morphology may have affected lava ponding in the crater, which in turn strongly influenced the lava fountain heights. Our results improve the general understanding of landscape evolution in rift zones and demonstrate the close relationship between cone morphology and lava fountain activity at the onset of an eruption

The effect of wind and plume height reconstruction methods on the accuracy of simple plume models — a second look at the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Real-time monitoring of volcanic ash plumes with the aim to estimate the mass eruption rate is crucial for predicting atmospheric ash concentration. Mass eruption rates are usually assessed by 0D and 1D plume models, which are fast and require only a few observational input parameters, often only the plume height. A model’s output, however, depends also on the plume height data handling strategy (sampling rate, gap reconstruction methods and statistical treatment), especially in long-term eruptions with incomplete plume height records. Representing such an eruption, we used Eyjafjallajökull 2010 to test the sensitivity of six simple and two explicitly wind-affected plume models against 22 data handling strategies. Based on photogrammetric measurements, the wind deflection of the plume was determined and used to re-calibrate radar height data. The resulting data was then subjected to different data handling strategies, before being used as input for the plume models. The model results were compared to the erupted mass measured on the ground, allowing us to assess the prediction accuracy of each combination of data handling strategy and model. Combinations that provide highest prediction accuracies vary, depending on data coverage, eruptive strength, and fragmentation style. However, for this type of moderate to weak eruption, the most important factor was found to be the prevailing windspeed. When windspeeds exceed 20 m/s, most combinations of strategies and models provide predictions that underestimate the erupted mass by more than 40%. Under such conditions, the optimal choice of data handling strategy and plume model is of particularly relevance.The geo-referencing and photo analysis was conducted under the EU Framework 7 FutureVolc project (2012–2016). This work contributes to project MAXI-Plume, supported by the Icelandic Research Fund (Rannís), grant Nr. 206527-051. TD was supported by the IRF (Rannís) Postdoctoral project grant 206527–051.Pre-print (óritrýnt handrit

Seismic and geodetic insights into magma accumulation at Katla subglacial volcano, Iceland: 1999 to 2005

International audienceKatla is one of Iceland's most active volcanoes with at least 20 eruptions in the last 1100 years. The volcano is covered mostly by the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap; consequently, Katla eruptions are phreato-magmatic and are capable of producing jökulhlaups. A jökulhlaup in July 1999, preceded by an episode of continuous seismic tremor, was the first sign of renewed magma movement under the volcano since 1955. Using seismic and geodetic observations, and insights into geothermal activity from ice-surface observations, we analyze this period of unrest and assess the present state of Katla volcano. From 1999 to 2004, GPS measurements on nunataks exposed on the caldera edge revealed steady inflation of the volcano. Our measurements show uplift and horizontal displacement of the nuntatak benchmarks at a rate of up to 2 cm a−1, together with horizontal displacement of far-field stations (>11 km) at about 0.5 cm a−1 away from the caldera centre. Using a point-source model, these data place the center of the magma chamber at 4.9 km depth beneath the northern part of the caldera. However, this depth may be overestimated because of a progressive decrease in the mass of the overlying ice cap. The depth may be only 2–3 km. About 0.01 km3 of magma has accumulated between 1999 and 2004; this value is considerably less than the estimated 1 km3 of material erupted during the last eruption of Katla in 1918. Presently, rates of crustal deformation and earthquake activity are considerably less than observed between 1999 and 2004; nonetheless, the volcano remains in an agitated state