Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards

Classical Nambu-Goldstone fields

It is shown that a Nambu-Goldstone (NG) field may be coherently produced by a large number of particles in spite of the fact that the NG bosons do not couple to flavor conserving scalar densities like $\bar{\psi}\psi$. If a flavor oscillation process takes place the phases of the pseudo-scalar or flavor violating densities of different particles do not necessarily cancel each other. The NG boson gets a macroscopic source whenever the total (spontaneously broken) quantum number carried by the source particles suffers a net increase or decrease in time. If the lepton numbers are spontaneously broken such classical NG (majoron) fields may significantly change the neutrino oscillation processes in stars pushing the observational capabilities of neutrino-majoron couplings down to $m_{\nu}/300$ GeV.Comment: 11 pages, updated, to appear in PR

Factors Influencing the Participation of Older People in Clinical Trials : Data Analysis from the MAVIS Trial

Peer reviewedPostprin

On the Low Surface Magnetic Field Structure of Quark Stars

Following some of the recent articles on hole super-conductivity and related phenomena by Hirsch \cite{H1,H2,H3}, a simple model is proposed to explain the observed low surface magnetic field of the expected quark stars. It is argued that the diamagnetic moments of the electrons circulating in the electro-sphere induce a magnetic field, which forces the existing quark star magnetic flux density to become dilute. We have also analysed the instability of normal-superconducting interface due to excess accumulation of magnetic flux lines, assuming an extremely slow growth of superconducting phase through a first order bubble nucleation type transition.Comment: 24 pages REVTEX, one .eps figure, psfig.sty is include

Local linear regression with adaptive orthogonal fitting for the wind power application

Short-term forecasting of wind generation requires a model of the function for the conversion of me-teorological variables (mainly wind speed) to power production. Such a power curve is nonlinear and bounded, in addition to being nonstationary. Local linear regression is an appealing nonparametric ap-proach for power curve estimation, for which the model coefficients can be tracked with recursive Least Squares (LS) methods. This may lead to an inaccurate estimate of the true power curve, owing to the assumption that a noise component is present on the response variable axis only. Therefore, this assump-tion is relaxed here, by describing a local linear regression with orthogonal fit. Local linear coefficients are defined as those which minimize a weighted Total Least Squares (TLS) criterion. An adaptive es-timation method is introduced in order to accommodate nonstationarity. This has the additional benefit of lowering the computational costs of updating local coefficients every time new observations become available. The estimation method is based on tracking the left-most eigenvector of the augmented covari-ance matrix. A robustification of the estimation method is also proposed. Simulations on semi-artificial datasets (for which the true power curve is available) underline the properties of the proposed regression and related estimation methods. An important result is the significantly higher ability of local polynomia

Linear Paul trap design for an optical clock with Coulomb crystals

We report on the design of a segmented linear Paul trap for optical clock applications using trapped ion Coulomb crystals. For an optical clock with an improved short-term stability and a fractional frequency uncertainty of 10^-18, we propose 115In+ ions sympathetically cooled by 172Yb+. We discuss the systematic frequency shifts of such a frequency standard. In particular, we elaborate on high precision calculations of the electric radiofrequency field of the ion trap using the finite element method. These calculations are used to find a scalable design with minimized excess micromotion of the ions at a level at which the corresponding second- order Doppler shift contributes less than 10^-18 to the relative uncertainty of the frequency standard

The WHAM Northern Sky Survey and the Nature of the Warm Ionized Medium in the Galaxy

The Wisconsin H-Alpha Mapper (WHAM) has completed a velocity-resolved map of diffuse H-alpha emission of the entire northern sky, providing the first comprehensive picture of both the distribution and kinematics of diffuse ionized gas in the Galaxy. WHAM continues to advance our understanding of the physical conditions of the warm ionized medium through observations of other optical emission lines throughout the Galactic disk and halo. We discuss some highlights from the survey, including an optical window into the inner Galaxy and the relationship between HI and HII in the diffuse ISM.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. To be published in "How does the Galaxy work?", eds. E.J. Alfaro, E. Perez & J. Franco, Kluwer, held 23-27 June 2003 in Granada, Spain. Higher resolution version available at http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~madsen/prof/pubs.htm

Spin Down of Rotating Compact Magnetized Strange Stars in General Relativity

We find that in general relativity slow down of the pulsar rotation due to the magnetodipolar radiation is more faster for the strange star with comparison to that for the neutron star of the same mass. Comparison with astrophysical observations on pulsars spindown data may provide an evidence for the strange star existence and, thus, serve as a test for distinguishing it from the neutron star.Comment: 6 pages; Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

On the selection of AGN neutrino source candidates for a source stacking analysis with neutrino telescopes

The sensitivity of a search for sources of TeV neutrinos can be improved by grouping potential sources together into generic classes in a procedure that is known as source stacking. In this paper, we define catalogs of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and use them to perform a source stacking analysis. The grouping of AGN into classes is done in two steps: first, AGN classes are defined, then, sources to be stacked are selected assuming that a potential neutrino flux is linearly correlated with the photon luminosity in a certain energy band (radio, IR, optical, keV, GeV, TeV). Lacking any secure detailed knowledge on neutrino production in AGN, this correlation is motivated by hadronic AGN models, as briefly reviewed in this paper. The source stacking search for neutrinos from generic AGN classes is illustrated using the data collected by the AMANDA-II high energy neutrino detector during the year 2000. No significant excess for any of the suggested groups was found.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, accepted by Astroparticle Physic

The distribution of radioactive 44Ti in Cassiopeia A

The distribution of elements produced in the innermost layers of a supernova explosion is a key diagnostic for studying the collapse of massive stars. Here we present the results of a 2.4 Ms NuSTAR observing campaign aimed at studying the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A (Cas A). We perform spatially resolved spectroscopic analyses of the 44Ti ejecta, which we use to determine the Doppler shift and thus the three-dimensional (3D) velocities of the 44Ti ejecta. We find an initial 44Ti mass of (1.54 ± 0.21) × 10−4 M⊙, which has a present-day average momentum direction of 340° ± 15° projected onto the plane of the sky (measured clockwise from celestial north) and is tilted by 58° ± 20° into the plane of the sky away from the observer, roughly opposite to the inferred direction of motion of the central compact object. We find some 44Ti ejecta that are clearly interior to the reverse shock and some that are clearly exterior to it. Where we observe 44Ti ejecta exterior to the reverse shock we also see shock-heated iron; however, there are regions where we see iron but do not observe 44Ti. This suggests that the local conditions of the supernova shock during explosive nucleosynthesis varied enough to suppress the production of 44Ti by at least a factor of two in some regions, even in regions that are assumed to be the result of processes like α-rich freezeout that should produce both iron and titanium