Commuting in London and the South East – Some Background Trends.

The past two decades have seen some significant changes in the pattern of commuting to Central London. The total number of passengers entering Central London by all modes in the morning peak has dropped by some 20% (Fig.2). Yet private traffic has grown in absolute terms, to form some 20% of the total in 1983 compared with 14% in 1961. As a result, congestion has worsened and traffic speeds declined (Table 1). All public transport modes have declined in patronage, but for British Rail the decline has been concentrated within Greater London (Fig.3). From outside Greater London; traffic grew until the mid 1970's. Since then there has been a modest decline. These changes are no doubt what most analysts would expect of a society of rising car ownership - decentralisation of jobs and homes, and increased use of car instead of public transport. But at a more detailed level, there are some surprises. For instance, despite the economic recession, the decline in morning peak trips to London by all modes appears to have slowed down in recent years. In this same period the longer distance rail market began a modest decline. At the same time, there have been considerable shifts in the pattern of commuting by County of origin (Table 2). The perod 1961-71 saw a straightforward decentralisation of the homes of Greater London workers, with the numbers in Greater London and Essex declining and everywhere else increasing. Between 1971 and 1981, the pattern has been very different. Commuting from Essex has resumed rapid growth,-with an absolute increase exceeded only by the boom in commuting from Hertfordshire. Growth in the traditional commuter area of Surrey has been very slow, whilst from Buckinghamshire commuting has declined. These changes have led to a view that dormitory areas, like people, can go through a life cycle of growth, maturity and decline. Of course it should be remembered that a considerable proportion of these commuters, particularly from the adjacent counties, are only just crossing the Greater London boundaries and not proceeding to Inner London (Fig.4). From districts adjacent to Greater London this is particularly pronounced (Fig.5). What are the reasons for these changes in patterns of commuting into Central London? Have we now reached the stage where the market has stabilised, or will commuting resume declining? Will the longer distance end of the commuter market continue to decline? Will the counties north east of London continue to take over the role of dormitories from counties south of the Thames? These are very complicated issues, involving interactions between rising incomes, transport policy, planning and land-use policies and the job and housing markets. In this paper it is intended to examine what can be learned from a broad view of the developments using published data. Future papers will examine survey data on the decisions of individual commuters, and consider ways of modelling these interactions, following on from work previously reported in the course of a preceding project (Johnson and Nash, 1983; Mackett, 1984). In the next section, the changes in the location of population and jobs over the period and some of the factors which may have caused these changes are considered. Then trends in the labour market, in housing, in incomes and car ownership and in public transport fares and services are reviewed. Finally, developments in three towns at varying distances from Central London, which illustrate the sorts of changes that are taking place at the local level, are discussed. The following text will refer to a number of subdivisions of London and the South East - Central London, Inner London, Outer London, Outer Metropolitan Area and Rest of the South East. These are illustrated and defined in Fig. 1, and in the Appendix of definitions

Children's active travel and independent mobility in four countries: Development, social contributing trends and measures

In many countries a decline in children's active and independent mobility, like walking and cycling is registered. In this paper the development of children's mobility in Denmark, Finland, Great Britain and Norway is compared to examine differences and similarities in these countries. Accessible data are used, which implies that not all of them are directly comparable, but they are employed as indicators of development. The trends are the same in these four countries, an increase in car use and decrease in bicycling and walking. Distance to school has increased, both as a result of bigger units and more children in private schools. Traffic is an important reason for taking children to school by car, but convenience for the parents is also part of it. Organized leisure activities has also contributed to less walking and cycling, in addition to more time pressure in families, increased access to car(s) and easier access to parents as a ‘transport service’ by the help of the mobile phone. The measures that different countries use in trying to meet the challenges of children's mobility tend to focus on the school trip and most often on traffic safety, both at national and local levels

Failure of vaccination to prevent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease

Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease persist in dairy cattle herds in Saudi Arabia despite revaccination at intervals of 4-6 months. Vaccine trials provide data on antibody responses following vaccination. Using this information we developed a mathematical model of the decay of protective antibodies with which we estimated the fraction of susceptible animals at a given time after vaccination. The model describes the data well, suggesting over 95% take with an antibody half-life of 43 days. Farm records provided data on the time course of five outbreaks. We applied a 'SLIR' epidemiological model to these data, fitting a single parameter representing disease transmission rate. The analysis provides estimates of the basic reproduction number R(0), which may exceed 70 in some cases. We conclude that the critical intervaccination interval which would provide herd immunity against FMDV is unrealistically short, especially for heterologous challenge. We suggest that it may not be possible to prevent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks on these farms using currently available vaccines

"Driven to distraction?" Children's experiences of car travel

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in volume, 4, issue 1, pages 59-76 in Mobilities 2009. Copyright @ 2009 Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17450100802657962.Cars have become increasingly significant features in the lives of many children and adults in the UK and elsewhere. Whilst there is a growing body of research considering how adults experience automobility, that is the increasingly central role of cars within societies, there has been little equivalent research exploring children's perspectives. Drawing upon a variety of methods including personal diaries, photographs, in‐depth interviews and surveys amongst schools within Buckinghamshire and North London, the paper contributes to filling this gap in existing research through exploring how cars are not only journey spaces for children, but are also sites for play, relaxation, homework, companionship, technology and the consumption of commodities. Using a Foucauldian analysis of power, insights into wider familial processes relating to mobility are provided by exploring how cars are sites of conflicting power relations between parents and children. The paper also explores how children's everyday experiences of cars were framed by wider sets of power relations, including car corporations which design and manufacture these spaces, and the role of capital which commodifies everyday activities in cars. In doing so, the paper challenges existing research on automobility for only focusing upon adults' experiences of cars and begins to theorise a more inclusive account of automobility which incorporates children and young people

Building future societies? A brief analysis of Braga’s school bus project

This paper seeks to demonstrate the importance of implementing trans- port policies that meet home to school (and vice versa) mobility needs of children and young people. Over the last few years families’ mobility has been given increasing attention. One of the most investigated aspects is home to work mobil- ity. Nowadays there is an urgent need to study and propose intervention measures regarding children’s mobility to school. In fact, studies show that the car is the preferred mode of transportation in Portugal. This trend has undoubtedly negative social, environmental and health consequences. Based on an evaluation study on the School Bus project in Braga (a research- intervention activity of BUILD-Braga Urban Innovation Laboratory Demonstrator), this paper discusses the difficulties in implementing sustainable mobility initiatives, pointing out anticipatory mea- sures that can be taken in medium-sized cities in order to stop the expansion of children’s transportation by car, and give them back spaces in the cities.UIDB/00736/202

A mechanism for the inhibition of DNA-PK-mediated DNA sensing by a virus

The innate immune system is critical in the response to infection by pathogens and it is activated by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) binding to pathogen associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). During viral infection, the direct recognition of the viral nucleic acids, such as the genomes of DNA viruses, is very important for activation of innate immunity. Recently, DNA-dependent protein kinase (DNA-PK), a heterotrimeric complex consisting of the Ku70/Ku80 heterodimer and the catalytic subunit DNA-PKcs was identified as a cytoplasmic PRR for DNA that is important for the innate immune response to intracellular DNA and DNA virus infection. Here we show that vaccinia virus (VACV) has evolved to inhibit this function of DNA-PK by expression of a highly conserved protein called C16, which was known to contribute to virulence but by an unknown mechanism. Data presented show that C16 binds directly to the Ku heterodimer and thereby inhibits the innate immune response to DNA in fibroblasts, characterised by the decreased production of cytokines and chemokines. Mechanistically, C16 acts by blocking DNA-PK binding to DNA, which correlates with reduced DNA-PK-dependent DNA sensing. The C-terminal region of C16 is sufficient for binding Ku and this activity is conserved in the variola virus (VARV) orthologue of C16. In contrast, deletion of 5 amino acids in this domain is enough to knockout this function from the attenuated vaccine strain modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA). In vivo a VACV mutant lacking C16 induced higher levels of cytokines and chemokines early after infection compared to control viruses, confirming the role of this virulence factor in attenuating the innate immune response. Overall this study describes the inhibition of DNA-PK-dependent DNA sensing by a poxvirus protein, adding to the evidence that DNA-PK is a critical component of innate immunity to DNA viruses

‘With us, we, like, physically can’t’: transport, mobility and the leisure experiences of teenage wheelchair users

This paper reflects upon the experiences of 69 British teenage wheelchair users in their attempts to access leisure environments. Heiser’s (Heiser, B. 1995. “The Nature and Causes of Transport Disability in Britain, and How to Remove It.” In Removing Disability Barriers, edited by G. Zarb, 49–64. London: Policy Studies Institute) notion of transport disability is developed, and the concepts of transport anxiety and mobility dependency are explored. The challenges that young people in general experience when attempting to access public and private forms of transport (namely, buses, trains, taxis and private cars) are discussed, and the additional ‘layers’ of disadvantage experienced by teenage wheelchair users explored. The ramifications of barriers to transport for young wheelchair users in particular are shown