Integrating Historical Operating Decisions and Expert Criteria into a DSS for the Management of a multireservoir System

[EN] This paper presents a collaborative framework to couple historical records with expert knowledge and criteria in order to define a Decision Support System (DSS) to support the seasonal operation of the reservoirs of the Jucar river system. The framework relies on the co-development of a DSS tool that is able to explicitly reproduce the decision-making processes and criteria considered by the system operators. Fuzzy logic is used to derive the implicit operating rules followed by the managers based on historical decisions and expert knowledge obtained in the co-development process, combining both sources of information. Fuzzy regression is used to forecast future inflows based on the meteorological and hydrological variables considered by the system operators in their decisions on reservoir operation. The DSS was validated against historical records. The developed framework and tools offer the system operators a way to predefine a set of feasible ex ante management decisions, as well as to explore the consequences associated with any single choice. In contrast with other approaches, the fuzzy-based method used is able to embed inflow uncertainty and its effects in the definition of the decisions on the system operation. Furthermore, the method is flexible enough to be applied to other water resource systems.The authors wish to acknowledge the Jucar River Basin Management Authority (Confederacion Hidrografica del Joecar, CHJ), especially its Operation Office's (Oficina de Explotacion) system operators Jose Maria Benlliure Moreno and Juan Fullana Montoro, for their contribution to the whole process, valuable suggestions, and provision of the necessary data to carry out the study. The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and FEDER funds. It has also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (GA 641.811).Macian-Sorribes, H.; Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2017). Integrating Historical Operating Decisions and Expert Criteria into a DSS for the Management of a multireservoir System. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 143(1). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000712S143

Inferring efficient operating rules in multireservoir water resource systems: A review

[EN] Coordinated and efficient operation of water resource systems becomes essential to deal with growing demands and uncertain resources in water-stressed regions. System analysis models and tools help address the complexities of multireservoir systems when defining operating rules. This paper reviews the state of the art in developing operating rules for multireservoir water resource systems, focusing on efficient system operation. This review focuses on how optimal operating rules can be derived and represented. Advantages and drawbacks of each approach are discussed. Major approaches to derive optimal operating rules include direct optimization of reservoir operation, embedding conditional operating rules in simulation-optimization frameworks, and inferring rules from optimization results. Suggestions on which approach to use depend on context. Parametrization-simulation-optimization or rule inference using heuristics are promising approaches. Increased forecasting capabilities will further benefit the use of model predictive control algorithms to improve system operation. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Water, Health, and Sanitation Engineering Water > MethodsThe study has been partially funded by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion Universidades (MICINN) of Spain, and by the postdoctoral program (PAID-10-18) of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia (UPV).Macian-Sorribes, H.; Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2019). Inferring efficient operating rules in multireservoir water resource systems: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water. 7(1):1-24. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1400S12471Aboutalebi, M., Bozorg Haddad, O., & Loáiciga, H. A. (2015). Optimal Monthly Reservoir Operation Rules for Hydropower Generation Derived with SVR-NSGAII. 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Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

Oral presentation performed by Hector Macian-Sorribes at the EGU General Assembly 201

Improving operating policies of large-scale surface-groundwater systems through stochastic programming

[EN] The management of large-scale water resource systems with surface and groundwater resources requires considering stream-aquifer interactions. Optimization models applied of large-scale systems have either employed deterministic optimization (with perfect foreknowledge of future inflows, which hinders their applicability to real-life operations) or stochastic programming (in which stream-aquifer interaction is often neglected due to the computational burden associated with these methods). In this paper, stream-aquifer interaction is integrated in a stochastic programming framework by combining the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) optimization algorithm with the Embedded Multireservoir Model (EMM). The resulting extension of the SDDP algorithm, named Combined Surface-Groundwater SDDP (CSG-SDDP), is able to properly represent the stream-aquifer interaction within stochastic optimization models of large-scale surface-groundwater resources systems. The algorithm is applied to build a hydroeconomic model for the Jucar River Basin (Spain), in which stream-aquifer interactions are essential to the characterization of water resources in the system. Besides the uncertainties regarding the economic characterization of the demand functions, the results show that the economic efficiency of the operating policies under the current system can be improved by better management of groundwater and surface resourcesThe data used in this study was obtained from the references included. This study was partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and FEDER funds. It also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement: 641.811). The authors want to thank the editor, the associated editor and the reviewers for their comments and suggestions in order to increase the quality of the paper. Readers interested in requesting data about the results of the study may send an e-mail to [email protected], H.; Tilmant, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M. (2017). Improving operating policies of large-scale surface-groundwater systems through stochastic programming. Water Resources Research. 53(2):1407-1423. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019573S1407142353

Historical upscaling of the socio-hydrological cycle: three cases from the Mediterranean Spain

Poster presentation performed by Hector Macian-Sorribes at the 2015 EGU General Assembly in Vienna (Austria

System Dynamics Modeling for Supporting Drought-Oriented Management of the Jucar River System, Spain

[EN] The management of water in systems where the balance between resources and demands is already precarious can pose a challenge and it can be easily disrupted by drought episodes. Anticipated drought management has proved to be one of the main strategies to reduce their impact. Drought economic, environmental, and social impacts affect different sectors that are often interconnected. There is a need for water management models able to acknowledge the complex interactions between multiple sectors, activities, and variables to study the response of water resource systems to drought management strategies. System dynamics (SD) is a modeling methodology that facilitates the analysis of interactions and feedbacks within and between sectors. Although SD has been applied for water resource management, there is a lack of SD models able to regulate complex water resource systems on a monthly time scale and considering multiple reservoir operating rules, demands, and policies. In this paper, we present an SD model for the strategic planning of drought management in the Jucar River system, incorporating dynamic reservoir operating rules, policies, and drought management strategies triggered by a system state index. The DSS combines features from early warning and information systems, allowing for the simulation of drought strategies, evaluating their economic impact, and exploring new management options in the same environment. The results for the historical period show that drought early management can be beneficial for the performance of the system, monitoring the current state of the system, and activating drought management measures results in a substantial reduction of the economic impact of droughts.The data used in this study was obtained from the references included. We acknowledge the European Research Area for Climate Services consortium (ER4CS) and the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion for their financial support to this research under the INNOVA project (Grant Agreement: 690462; PCIN-2017-066). This study has also been partially funded by the ADAPTAMED project (RTI2018-101483-B-I00) from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades (MICIU) of Spain.Rubio-Martin, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Garcia-Prats, A. (2020). System Dynamics Modeling for Supporting Drought-Oriented Management of the Jucar River System, Spain. Water. 12(5):1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051407S119125Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2), 202-216. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012Momblanch, A., Paredes-Arquiola, J., Munné, A., Manzano, A., Arnau, J., & Andreu, J. (2015). Managing water quality under drought conditions in the Llobregat River Basin. 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Definition of efficient scarcity-based water pricing policies through stochastic programming

[EN] Finding ways to improve the efficiency in water usage is one of the most important challenges in integrated water resources management. One of the most promising solutions is the use of scarcity-based pricing policies. This contribution presents a procedure to design efficient pricing policies based in the opportunity cost of water at the basin scale. Time series of the marginal value of water are obtained using a stochastic hydro-economic model. Those series are then post-processed to define step pricing policies, which depend on the state of the system at each time step. The case study of the Mijares River basin system (Spain) is used to illustrate the method. The results show that the application of scarcitybased pricing policies increases the economic efficiency of water use in the basin, allocating water to the highest-value uses and generating an incentive for water conservation during the scarcity periods. The resulting benefits are close to those obtained with the economically optimal decisions.This study has been partially funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7) ENHANCE (number 308.438). In addition, the authors acknowledge the editor and reviewers for their helpful and constructive comments.Macian-Sorribes, H.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Tilmant, A. (2015). Definition of efficient scarcity-based water pricing policies through stochastic programming. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 19(9):3925-3935. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3925-2015S39253935199Alvarez-Mendiola, E.: Diseño de una política eficiente de precios del agua integrando costes de oportunidad del recurso a escala de cuenca, PhD dissertation, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain, 2012 (in Spanish).Andreu, J., and Sahuquillo, A.: Efficient aquifer simulation in complex systems, J. Water Res. 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Qualitative approach for assessing runoff temporal dependence through geometrical symmetry

Currently, noticeable changes in traditional hydrological patterns are being observed on the short and medium-term. These modifications are adding a growing variability on water resources behaviour, especially evident in its availability. Consequently, for a better understanding/knowledge of temporal alterations, it is crucial to develop new analytical strategies which are capable of capturing these modifications on its temporal behaviour. This challenge is here addressed via a purely stochastic methodology on annual runoff time series. This is performed through the propagation of temporal dependence strength over the time, by means of Causality, supported by Causal Reasoning (Bayes’ theorem), via the relative percentage of runoff change that a time-step produces on the following ones. The result is a dependence mitigation graph, whose analysis of its symmetry provides an innovative qualitative approach to assess time-dependency from a dynamic and continuous perspective against the classical, static and punctual result that a correlogram offers. This was evaluated/applied to four Spanish unregulated river sub-basins; firstly on two Douro/Duero River Basin exemplary case studies (the largest river basin at Iberian Peninsula) with a clearly opposite temporal behaviour, and subsequently applied to two watersheds belonging to Jucar River Basin (Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean side), characterised by suffering regular drought conditions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Qualitative Approach for Assessing Runoff Temporal Dependence Through Geometrical Symmetry

Currently, noticeable changes in traditional hydrological patterns are being observed on the short and medium-term. These modifications are adding a growing variability on water resources behaviour, especially evident in its availability. Consequently, for a better understanding/knowledge of temporal alterations, it is crucial to develop  new analytical strategies which are capable of capturing these modifications on its temporal behaviour. This challenge is here addressed via a purely stochastic methodology on annual runoff time series. This is performed through the propagation of temporal dependence strength over the time, by means of Causality, supported by Causal Reasoning (Bayes’ theorem), via the relative percentage of runoff change that a time-step produces on the following ones. The result is a dependence mitigation graph, whose analysis of its symmetry provides an innovative qualitative approach to assess time-dependency from a dynamic and continuous perspective against the classical, static and punctual result that a correlogram offers. This was evaluated/applied to four Spanish unregulated river sub-basins; firstly on two Douro/Duero River Basin exemplary case studies (the largest river basin at Iberian Peninsula) with a clearly opposite temporal behaviour, and subsequently applied to two watersheds belonging to Jucar River Basin (Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean side), characterised by suffering regular drought conditions. Keywords: Causal reasoning, Theorem of Bayes, Temporal dependence propagation, Runoff time series, Water resources managemen

Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

[EN] In this paper, we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This study has been supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds; the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (GA 641.811) and the FP7 project ENHANCE (FP7, 308438).Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H. (2017). Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. Journal of Hydrology. 550:580-589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.004S58058955