Oral presentation performed by Hector Macian-Sorribes at the EGU General Assembly 201

Hector Macian-Sorribes

Manuel Pulido-Velazquez

English

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Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management modelHector Macian-Sorribes and Manuel Pulido-VelazquezResearch Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA). Universitat Politècnica de ValènciaEGU General Assembly 20137-12 April 2013, Vienna, AustriaRiver Danube at ViennaSource: www.tripadvisor.com1. Introduction2. Methods: Fuzzy management rules3. Case study: Mijares River Basin (Jucar RBD)4. Conclusions2CONTENTWater resources systems are commonly operated with pre-definedreservoir operating rules based on: Historical water rights and priorities Relationship between available resources and conflictingdemands Institutional agreementsThese operating rules are expressed as: Hedging rules Pack rules Zone-based rules etc.Management rules3Source: Loucks and van Beek (2005)INTRODUCTIONDISCRETIONAL DECISIONS in historical management:release decisions taken to react to specific situations, deviatingfrom the value expected from the reservoir operating rulesDiscretional decisions4INTRODUCTIONSource: SCRM (1973). Current Mijares operating ruleMonthMm3DISCRETIONAL DECISIONS in historical management:release decisions taken to react to specific situations, deviatingfrom the value expected from the reservoir operating rulesDiscretional decisions4INTRODUCTIONSource: SCRM (1973). Current Mijares operating rule• Storage just below the curve• Good inflow expectationMonthMm3DISCRETIONAL DECISIONS in historical management:release decisions taken to react to specific situations, deviatingfrom the value expected from the reservoir operating rulesDiscretional decisions4Operating rule: no releases for supplyINTRODUCTIONSource: SCRM (1973). Current Mijares operating rule• Storage just below the curve• Good inflow expectationMonthMm3DISCRETIONAL DECISIONS in historical management:release decisions taken to react to specific situations, deviatingfrom the value expected from the reservoir operating rulesDiscretional decisions4Operating rule: no releases for supplyDiscretional decision: partial deliveriesINTRODUCTIONSource: SCRM (1973). Current Mijares operating rule• Storage just below the curve• Good inflow expectationMonthMm3PROBLEM: how to incorporate discretional decisions in thesimulation of future water management? Decisions made ad hoc Based on expert criteria / negotiation processGOAL: to develop a model able to combine general operatingrules and discretional decisions under a single frameworkAPPROACH: water resources system simulation model basedon fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systemsINTRODUCTION Motivation of the study5Basis: mathematical representation of system’s operating rules toobtain a fuzzy rule-based system (FRB) reproducing itsperformance (e.g. Russell and Campbell, 1996; Panigrahi andMujumdar, 2000)Example of fuzzy rule-based system imitating pre-defined rules:FUZZY MANAGEMENT RULES PurposeOUTPUTSTORAGE INFLOW RELEASELOW LOW LOWLOW MEDIUM LOWLOW HIGH MEDIUMMEDIUM LOW LOWMEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUMMEDIUM HIGH HIGHHIGH LOW MEDIUMHIGH MEDIUM HIGHHIGH HIGH HIGHINPUTS00.250.50.7510 10 20 30MembershipMm3StorageLOWMEDIUMHIGH00.250.50.7510 2 4 6 8 10MembershipMm3InflowLOWMEDIUMHIGHOperation algorithmRt = f (St , It)00.250.50.7510 2 4 6 8 10MembershipMm3Release RULE 1RULE 2RULE 3RULE 4RULE 5RULE 6RULE 7RULE 8RULE 96Source: CEDEXArenósSicharCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER General view7NAME CAPACITY START MAIN USE DEMANDArenós 93.00 1959 AgriculturalSichar 49.00 1980 Agricultural196.00120.18MEAN ANUAL INFLOW (1980-2009)Units in Mm3PROBLEM: historical releases do not always follow theexisting operating rules (discretional decisions)FeaturesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER8-15-10-5051015202530oct-95abr-96oct-96abr-97oct-97abr-98oct-98abr-99oct-99abr-00oct-00abr-01Mm3DateArenós Reservoir ReleaseHISTORICALMODEL-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.00oct-95abr-96oct-96abr-97oct-97abr-98oct-98abr-99oct-99abr-00oct-00abr-01Mm3DateTraditional Irrigation District deliveriesHISTORICALMODELFlowchartCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER9Current PoliciesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER10816.224.532.741 40.539.236.83327.622.216.80.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago SepMm3MonthMijares Operating RulesMinimun storageLimit agreementstorageCurrent operating rules: Zone-based rulesMathematical algorithm: IF-THEN sentencesCurrent Policies11CASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERNO DEMANDSONLY TRADITIONAL DEMANDSALL DEMANDS FULLY METCurrent PoliciesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER12Calibration and validation of algorithm using availablehistorical monthly dataCurrent PoliciesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER* RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00oct-95abr-96oct-96abr-97oct-97abr-98oct-98abr-99oct-99abr-00oct-00abr-01Mm3DateTotal Reservoir StorageMODELHISTORICALCorrelation (R) 0.88RMSE (Mm3) 13.79Nash-Sutcliffe 0.72*Correlation (R) 0.78RMSE (Mm3) 3.69Nash-Sutcliffe 0.54*0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00oct-95abr-96oct-96abr-97oct-97abr-98oct-98abr-99oct-99abr-00oct-00abr-01Mm3DateMijares river flow before Traditional Irrigation District diversionMODELHISTORICAL13Fuzzy rulesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER14FRB features: Inputs (month and total reservoir storage) using triangularmembership functions Fuzzy rules for all possible input combinations Simulated Outputs (deliveries) for each fuzzy rule Modified Outputs (discretional decisions) based onhistorical decisionsThis FRB allows partial deliveries when storage close to theoperating rule curvesFuzzy rulesCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER15Classic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER16Comparison with the previously obtained operation rulesalgorithm (Storages & Flows)CASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER* RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error17Classic Vs. Fuzzy0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateTotal Reservoir StorageNON-FUZZYFUZZYCorrelation (R) 1.00RMSE (Mm3) 3.14Nash-Sutcliffe 0.99*Correlation (R) 1.00RMSE (Mm3) 0.18Nash-Sutcliffe 1.00*0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateMijares river flow before Traditional Irrigation District diversionNON-FUZZYFUZZYComparison with the previously obtained operation rulesalgorithm (Demand deficits)CASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVER18Classic Vs. Fuzzy0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.80oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateTraditional Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY0.000.501.001.502.002.50oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateMaria Cristina Irrigation Disctrict DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC220 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZYEffect of discretional decisions when specific situations occurClassic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERTime stage with discretional decision190.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY816.224.532.741 40.539.236.83327.622.216.80.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago SepMm3MonthMijares Operating RulesMinimun storageLimit agreementstorageEffect of discretional decisions when specific situations occurClassic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERTime stage with discretional decision190.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY816.224.532.741 40.539.236.83327.622.216.80.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago SepMm3MonthMijares Operating RulesMinimun storageLimit agreementstorageEffect of discretional decisions when specific situations occurClassic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERTime stage with discretional decision1940.7 Mm30.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY816.224.532.741 40.539.236.83327.622.216.80.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago SepMm3MonthMijares Operating RulesMinimun storageLimit agreementstorageEffect of discretional decisions when specific situations occurClassic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERTime stage with discretional decision1940.7 Mm3Non-fuzzy: general policy (demands fully met)0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00oct-95feb-96jun-96oct-96feb-97jun-97oct-97feb-98jun-98oct-98feb-99jun-99oct-99feb-00jun-00oct-00feb-01jun-01Mm3DateCC100 Irrigation District DeficitNON-FUZZYFUZZY816.224.532.741 40.539.236.83327.622.216.80.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.00Oct Nov Dic Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago SepMm3MonthMijares Operating RulesMinimun storageLimit agreementstorageEffect of discretional decisions when specific situations occurClassic Vs. FuzzyCASE STUDY: MIJARES RIVERTime stage with discretional decision1940.7 Mm3Fuzzy:           discretional decision(partial deliveries)Non-fuzzy: general policy (demands fully met) FRB systems can be integrated in generalized DSS inorder to reproduce the actual operation of systems FRB systems can reproduce discretional decisions withina unique framework Although FRB systems cannot reproduce each singlehistorical discretional decision, they allow to implementdiscretional decisions to be applied under different specialsituations FRB systems are able to simulate the dynamics of theactual system operation, in which decisions are not “all ornothing”, what is important for the simulation of futurescenariosCONCLUSIONS20Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management modelHector Macian-Sorribes and Manuel Pulido-VelazquezResearch Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA). Universitat Politècnica de ValènciaEGU General Assembly 20137-12 April 2013, Vienna, AustriaRiver Danube at ViennaSource: www.tripadvisor.comTHANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

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Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

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