Modelling Taylor Rule Uncertainty

In recent years, one has witnessed a widespread attention on the way monetary policy is conducted and in particular on the role of the so-called monetary policy rules. The conventional approach in the literature consists in estimating reaction functions for a monetary authority (the Federal Reserve, in most cases) in which a nominal interest rate, directly or indirectly controlled by that monetary authority, is adjusted in response to deviations of inflation (current or expected) from target and of output from potential. These reaction functions, usually called Taylor rules, following John Taylor's seminal paper published in 1993, match a number of normative principles set forth in the literature for optimal monetary policy. This provides a good reason for the growing prominence of indications given by Taylor rule estimations in debates about current and prospective monetary policy stance. However, they are usually presented as point estimates for the interest rate, giving a sense of accuracy that can be misleading. Typically, no emphasis is placed on the risks of those estimates and, at least to a certain extent, the reader is encouraged to concentrate on an apparently precise central projection, ignoring the wide degree of uncertainty and operational difficulties surrounding the estimates. As in any forecasting exercise, there is uncertainty regarding both the estimated parameters and the way the explanatory variables evolve during the forecasting horizon. Our work presents a methodology to estimate a probability density function for the interest rate resulting from the application of a Taylor rule (the Taylor interest rate) which acknowledges that not only the explanatory variables but also the parameters of the rule are random variables.

O pólo sídero-metalúrgico de Carajás: gênese de uma nova região industrial?

The present article seeks to analyze the process that is transforming an area along the Carajás Railroad into a siderurgy and metallurgy zone. After examining the causes for the establishment of the siderurgic projects in the region, the author outlines a brief historical overview and presents the current status of the establishment of the siderurgic plants. Finally, the main positive factors for the development of siderurgy in the region are examined in contrast to the main negative factors. The author concludes pointing out that the necessary conditions for the consolidation of siderurgy in the area reached by the Carajás Railroad and for making it one of the vectors for the development of the region are indeed a reality. It is necessary to overcome the limitations in order to realize the necessary conditions.The present article seeks to analyze the process that is transforming an area along the Carajás Railroad into a siderurgy and metallurgy zone. After examining the causes for the establishment of the siderurgic projects in the region, the author outlines a brief historical overview and presents the current status of the establishment of the siderurgic plants. Finally, the main positive factors for the development of siderurgy in the region are examined in contrast to the main negative factors. The author concludes pointing out that the necessary conditions for the consolidation of siderurgy in the area reached by the Carajás Railroad and for making it one of the vectors for the development of the region are indeed a reality. It is necessary to overcome the limitations in order to realize the necessary conditions

A Doutrina Monroe Tropical: O visconde do Uruguai e a definição da América do Sul como circuanstãncia diplomática do Brasil

This essay analyses the role of the Viscount of Uruguai on the development of acertain vision of South America as the diplomatic circumstance of Brazil. Pursuing aforeign policy based on this assumption, the Viscount of Uruguai developed andapplied a sort of “Tropical Monroe Doctrine”, according to which South Americashould be guarded against any intervention from external powers

Stratigraphy and palynology of the Pennsylvanian continental Buçaco Basin (NW Iberia)

The Buçaco Basin is a Pennsylvanian continental basin located along an important NNW–SSE strike structure (Porto-Tomar-Ferreira do Alentejo shear zone) that separates the Ossa-Morena and Central Iberian Zones of the Iberian Variscan Fold Belt in central western Portugal. The shear zone controlled the sedimentation in the basin and probably its post-sedimentary evolution. Sedimentation is initially alluvial with characteristic red sandstones, breccias and conglomerates. A gradual change to a fluvial (and probably lacustrine) type of sedimentation is observed with finning-upward cycles of gravel conglomerates, sandstones and organic-rich mudstones with occasional coal seams. Three representative sections were sampled for palynology and seventeen samples yielded sporomorphs with moderate to poor preservation. The palynological content from the alluvial sediments shows low diversity and poorly preserved assemblages dominated by Triquitrites spp., Densosporites spp., Laevigatosporites spp., and other taxa associated with siliciclastic environments or rheophytic mires. The fluvial and lacustrine sediments show a dramatic increase in diversity with an abundant, typical peatland microflora including sporomorphs such as Endosporites spp., Lycospora spp. and Monoletes spp., but also marginal peat and siliciclastic substrate taxa such as Densosporites spp., Latensina/Cordaitina spp., and Florinites spp. Other common taxa are Cheiledonites spp., Crassispora spp., Dictyotriletes-like miospores (mostly fragments), Potonieisporites spp., and Wilsonites spp. The presence and considerable abundance of Potonieisporites novicus and Cheiledonites cf. major is indicative of the middle to upper Potonieisporites novicus-bhardwajii–Cheiledonites major (NBM) miospore biozone of Western Europe, corresponding to the late Stephanian (early Gzhelian).publishe

Emotion regulation eating psychopathology and putative transdiagnostic psychological processes: findings from an exploratory network analysis in a college sample

Objective: Considering the prevalence of ED-related prodromal symptoms among higher education students (making them a population at risk for developing EDs), the main goals of this study were to conduct a network analysis in a college sample and to explore multivariate dependencies between a selection of empirically informed variables of interest to eating psychopathology, namely difficulties in emotion regulation and psychological processes (e.g., interoceptive awareness, self-compassion, self-criticism, mindfulness, and experiential avoidance). Methods: The sample included 294 college students (Mage = 21.4, SD = 5.0; MBMI = 22.4, SD = 3.7). A Gaussian graphical network model was estimated to visualize interactions among the studied variables and to assess their centrality in terms of betweenness, closeness, strength, and expected influence. Results: A network system with 21 nodes was estimated (sparsity = 0.52). Nodes assessing disordered eating symptoms displayed the strongest correlation coefficients with nodes assessing dimensions of interoceptive awareness: eating concerns and not-distracting (r = −0.11), shape concerns and trusting (r = −0.16), and weight concerns and trusting (r = −0.10). Self-compassion was the node with the highest betweenness (SELFCS = 2.27) and closeness centrality (SELFCS = 1.70). The nodes with the highest strength centrality were strategies (DERS = 1.91) and shape concerns (EDE-Q = 1.51). Discussion: In this network model conducted in a college sample, eating-related symptoms were mainly associated with dimensions of interoceptive awareness. Also, the lack of effective strategies to regulate emotions, shape concerns, and self-compassion stood out as central nodes in the network model. The results suggest that addressing these variables may be promising in disrupting network systems marked by the presence of prodromal eating psychopathology symptoms in at-risk populations (e.g., college students)

Interdisciplinary pedagogical activity, collaborative teaching under COVID-19

The Mundial Higher Education System is facing diverse and several challenges in a very short period of time. The pandemic situation of COVID-19 the world is facing imposed some really important changes in the Higher Education System: (i) The presence of a hybrid classes system (the online class combined with face-to-face classes); (ii) The acquisition of appropriate technologies and skills in order to use online platforms; (iii) The social distaimposed between students, teachers and between students and teachers; and (iv) the continuous teaching/learning process is complemented with the utilization of different tools of communications that support online classes. In these circumstances, it is important to adopt innovative pedagogies that can better prepare students to ingress in the tourism profession, particularly in the context of the crisis that the tourism sector is facing. In order to bridge the gap between how different Tourism subjects can be taught in university and how Tourism Professional Teams Works in a real-life context under a pandemic situation, interdisciplinary pedagogical activities implemented within the classroom. This article aims to describe and present interdisciplinary pedagogical practices within the Planning and Politics of Tourism and Introduction of EconoTourism classes, under a particular context, in order to develop important competencies that will allow students to be better prepared to work in the tourism sector. Specifically, the principal goal is to investigate the students’ perception of competencies acquired through interdisciplinary active under a collaborative learning activity within a pandemic situation. This investigation adopted a case study method. In a quantitative approach, the students answered a questionnaire about self-assessment, motivatiskills, and competencies acquired along diff erent stages of collaborative teamwork between peers. Complementing these fi ndings, we used a qualitatapproach. We describe teacher’s and students´ cooperation, and coordination eff orts throughout the activity carried out along two diff erent disciplines This research also provides important and novel insights to understand how students can develop important competencies, under a pandemic contexts learning from a hybrid process using interdisciplinary pedagogies. Teachers cooperation working through collaborative teaching activities and design considered as a proper interdisciplinary activity in order to graduate better students. The world is living a unique moment within a pandemic situation. Ait has a strong impact on the Higher Education System and all academic communities. In this sense, teachers must be open-minded regarding the learn process, as well as the use of new technologies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Alquimia

Todos já passamos por situações que não sabíamos explicar, ou tivemos perguntas que as pessoas ao nosso redor não sabiam responder, essas dúvidas frequentemente estão relacionadas à área de exatas, muito presente em nossas vidas porém não de forma clara. Em uma busca web por esse tipo de informação é comum a pessoa se deparar com sites que usam o sistema SPR (sistema deperguntas e respostas) como por exemplo, Yahoo Respostas e o Passei Direto, contudo esses sites possuem características que podem gerar uma má experiência para o usuário. Este projeto tem como objetivo desenvolver um SPR visando a desmistificação dos fenômenos físico-químicos, utilizando de um sistema de hierarquia para garantir a confiabilidade das respostas