Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Hydropower comprises a significant and rapidly expanding proportion of electricity production in eastern and southern Africa. In both regions, hydropower is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional climate linkages are strong, yet an understanding of spatial interdependences is lacking. Here we consider river basin configuration and define regions of coherent rainfall variability using cluster analysis to illustrate exposure to the risk of hydropower supply disruption of current (2015) and planned (2030) hydropower sites. Assuming completion of the dams planned, hydropower will become increasingly concentrated in the Nile (from 62% to 82% of total regional capacity) and Zambezi (from 73% to 85%) basins. By 2030, 70% and 59% of total hydropower capacity will be located in one cluster of rainfall variability in eastern and southern Africa, respectively, increasing the risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption in each region. Linking of nascent regional electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate intraregional risk, although these mechanisms face considerable political and infrastructural challenges

Direct observations of the effect of fine sediment deposition on the vertical movement of Gammarus pulex (Amphipoda: Gammaridae) during substratum drying

Benthic macroinvertebrates inhabit the streambed sediments of temporary streams during drying events. Fine sediment (< 2 mm in diameter) deposition and clogging of interstitial pathways reduces the connectivity between benthic and subsurface habitats, potentially inhibiting macroinvertebrate vertical movements. Direct observations within subsurface sediments are, however, inherently difficult. As a result, confirmation of macroinvertebrate vertical movement, and the effect of fine sediment, is limited. We used laboratory mesocosms containing transparent gravel sized particles (10–15 mm) to facilitate the direct observation and tracking of vertical movements by Gammarus pulex in response to water level reduction and sedimentation. Seven sediment treatments comprised two fine sediment fractions (small: 0.125–0.5 mm, coarse sand: 0.5–1 mm) deposited onto the surface of the substrate, and a control treatment where no fine sediment was applied. We found that G. pulex moved into the subsurface gravel sediments in response to drying, but their ability to remain submerged during water level reduction was impeded by fine sediment deposition. In particular deposition of the coarser sand fraction clogged the sediment surface, limiting vertical movements. Our results highlight the potential effect of sedimentation on G. pulex resistance to drying events in streams

The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3

Assessing the feasibility of adaptation options: methodological advancements and directions for climate adaptation research and practice

The Paris Agreement put adaptation prominently on the global climate action agenda. Despite a surge in research and praxis-based knowledge on adaptation, a critical policy roadblock is synthesizing and assessing this burgeoning evidence. We develop an approach to assess the multidimensional feasibility of adaptation options in a robust and transparent manner, providing direction for global climate policy and identifying knowledge gaps to further future climate research. The approach, which was tested in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 °C (SR1.5) to assess 23 adaptation options, is underpinned by a systematic review of recent literature, expert elicitation, and iterative peer review. It responds to the challenge of limited agreement on adaptation indicators, lack of fine-scale adaptation data, and challenges of assessing synergies and trade-offs with mitigation. The findings offer methodological insights into how future assessments such as the IPCC Assessment Report (AR) six and regional, national, and sectoral assessment exercises could assess adaptation feasibility and synthesize the growing body of knowledge on climate change adaptation