Will more of the same achieve malaria elimination? Results from an integrated macroeconomic epidemiological demographic model

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordThe data underlying the model framework are available from the authors on request and selected parameters are also tabulated in the methods paper,22 and from the Malaria Atlas Project http:// www.map.ox.ac.uk/Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of “trying but failing” to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to malaria elimination. During this transitional period, the risk of malaria resurgence increases as proportionately more individuals across all age-groups are less able to manage infections by immune response alone. We developed a robust model that integrates the effects of malaria transmission, demography, and macroeconomics in the context of Plasmodium falciparum malaria within a hyperendemic environment. We analyzed the potential for existing interventions, alongside economic development, to achieve malaria elimination. Simulation results indicate that a 2% increase in future economic growth will increase the US$5.1 billion cumulative economic burden of malaria in Ghana to US$7.2 billion, although increasing regional insecticide-treated net coverage rates by 25% will lower malaria reproduction numbers by just 9%, reduce population-wide morbidity by −0.1%, and reduce prevalence from 54% to 46% by 2034. As scaling up current malaria control tools, combined with economic growth, will be insufficient to interrupt malaria transmission in Ghana, high levels of malaria control should be maintained and investment in research and development should be increased to maintain the gains of the past decade and to minimize the risk of resurgence, as transmission dropsMedical Research Council (MRC

How Much Remains Undetected? Probability of Molecular Detection of Human Plasmodia in the Field

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic areas, most people are simultaneously infected with different parasite clones. Detection of individual clones is hampered when their densities fluctuate around the detection limit and, in case of P. falciparum, by sequestration during part of their life cycle. This has important implications for measures of levels of infection or for the outcome of clinical trials. This study aimed at measuring the detectability of individual P. falciparum and P. vivax parasite clones in consecutive samples of the same patient and at investigating the impact of sampling strategies on basic epidemiological measures such as multiplicity of infection (MOI). METHODS: Samples were obtained in a repeated cross-sectional field survey in 1 to 4.5 years old children from Papua New Guinea, who were followed up in 2-monthly intervals over 16 months. At each follow-up visit, two consecutive blood samples were collected from each child at intervals of 24 hours. Samples were genotyped for the polymorphic markers msp2 for P. falciparum and msp1F3 and MS16 for P. vivax. Observed prevalence and mean MOI estimated from single samples per host were compared to combined data from sampling twice within 24 h. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION: Estimated detectability was high in our data set (0.79 [95% CI 0.76-0.82] for P. falciparum and, depending on the marker, 0.61 [0.58-0.63] or 0.73 [0.71-0.75] for P. vivax). When genotyping data from sequential samples, collected 24 hours apart, were combined, the increase in measured prevalence was moderate, 6 to 9% of all infections were missed on a single day. The effect on observed MOI was more pronounced, 18 to 31% of all individual clones were not detected in a single bleed. Repeated sampling revealed little difference between detectability of P. falciparum and P. vivax

Persistence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitemia after artemisinin combination therapy: evidence from a randomized trial in Uganda

Artemisinin resistance is rapidly spreading in Southeast Asia. The efficacy of artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) continues to be excellent across Africa. We performed parasite transcriptional profiling and genotyping on samples from an antimalarial treatment trial in Uganda. We used qRT-PCR and genotyping to characterize residual circulating parasite populations after treatment with either ACT or ACT-primaquine. Transcripts suggestive of circulating ring stage parasites were present after treatment at a prevalence of >25% until at least 14 days post initiation of treatment. Greater than 98% of all ring stage parasites were cleared within the first 3 days, but subsequently persisted at low concentrations until day 14 after treatment. Genotyping demonstrated a significant decrease in multiplicity of infection within the first 2 days in both ACT and ACT-primaquine arms. However, multiple clone infections persisted until day 14 post treatment. Our data suggest the presence of genetically diverse persisting parasite populations after ACT treatment. Although we did not demonstrate clinical treatment failures after ACT and the viability and transmissibility of persisting ring stage parasites remain to be shown, these findings are of relevance for the interpretation of parasite clearance transmission dynamics and for monitoring drug effects in Plasmodium falciparum parasites

A longitudinal cohort study of malaria exposure and changing serostatus in a malaria endemic area of rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Measurements of anti-malarial antibodies are increasingly used as a proxy of transmission intensity. Most serological surveys are based on the use of cross-sectional data that, when age-stratified, approximates historical patterns of transmission within a population. Comparatively few studies leverage longitudinal data to explicitly relate individual infection events with subsequent antibody responses. METHODS: The occurrence of seroconversion and seroreversion events for two Plasmodium falciparum asexual stage antigens (MSP-1 and AMA-1) was examined using three annual measurements of 691 individuals from a cohort of individuals in a malaria-endemic area of rural east-central Tanzania. Mixed-effect logistic regression models were employed to determine factors associated with changes in serostatus over time. RESULTS: While the expected population-level relationship between seroprevalence and disease incidence was observed, on an individual level the relationship between individual infections and the antibody response was complex. MSP-1 antibody responses were more dynamic in response to the occurrence and resolution of infection events than AMA-1, while the latter was more correlated with consecutive infections. The MSP-1 antibody response to an observed infection seemed to decay faster over time than the corresponding AMA-1 response. Surprisingly, there was no evidence of an age effect on the occurrence of a conversion or reversion event. CONCLUSIONS: While the population-level results concur with previously published sero-epidemiological surveys, the individual-level results highlight the more complex relationship between detected infections and antibody dynamics than can be analysed using cross-sectional data. The longitudinal analysis of serological data may provide a powerful tool for teasing apart the complex relationship between infection events and the corresponding immune response, thereby improving the ability to rapidly assess the success or failure of malaria control programmes

Identification of biomolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters in living cells by inverse modeling

BACKGROUND: Quantification of in-vivo biomolecule mass transport and reaction rate parameters from experimental data obtained by Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP) is becoming more important. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Osborne-Moré extended version of the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm was coupled with the experimental data obtained by the Fluorescence Recovery after Photobleaching (FRAP) protocol, and the numerical solution of a set of two partial differential equations governing macromolecule mass transport and reaction in living cells, to inversely estimate optimized values of the molecular diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters of GFP-tagged glucocorticoid receptor. The results indicate that the FRAP protocol provides enough information to estimate one parameter uniquely using a nonlinear optimization technique. Coupling FRAP experimental data with the inverse modeling strategy, one can also uniquely estimate the individual values of the binding rate coefficients if the molecular diffusion coefficient is known. One can also simultaneously estimate the dissociation rate parameter and molecular diffusion coefficient given the pseudo-association rate parameter is known. However, the protocol provides insufficient information for unique simultaneous estimation of three parameters (diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters) owing to the high intercorrelation between the molecular diffusion coefficient and pseudo-association rate parameter. Attempts to estimate macromolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters simultaneously from FRAP data result in misleading conclusions regarding concentrations of free macromolecule and bound complex inside the cell, average binding time per vacant site, average time for diffusion of macromolecules from one site to the next, and slow or rapid mobility of biomolecules in cells. CONCLUSION: To obtain unique values for molecular diffusion coefficient and binding rate parameters from FRAP data, we propose conducting two FRAP experiments on the same class of macromolecule and cell. One experiment should be used to measure the molecular diffusion coefficient independently of binding in an effective diffusion regime and the other should be conducted in a reaction dominant or reaction-diffusion regime to quantify binding rate parameters. The method described in this paper is likely to be widely used to estimate in-vivo biomolecule mass transport and binding rate parameters

The temporal dynamics and infectiousness of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infections in relation to parasite density

Malaria infections occurring below the limit of detection of standard diagnostics are common in all endemic settings. However, key questions remain surrounding their contribution to sustaining transmission and whether they need to be detected and targeted to achieve malaria elimination. In this study we analyse a range of malaria datasets to quantify the density, detectability, course of infection and infectiousness of subpatent infections. Asymptomatically infected individuals have lower parasite densities on average in low transmission settings compared to individuals in higher transmission settings. In cohort studies, subpatent infections are found to be predictive of future periods of patent infection and in membrane feeding studies, individuals infected with subpatent asexual parasite densities are found to be approximately a third as infectious to mosquitoes as individuals with patent (asexual parasite) infection. These results indicate that subpatent infections contribute to the infectious reservoir, may be long lasting, and require more sensitive diagnostics to detect them in lower transmission settings

Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models.

BACKGROUND: Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-off to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate. METHODS: An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity. RESULTS: The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models. CONCLUSION: This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data

Accurately Measuring Recombination between Closely Related HIV-1 Genomes

Retroviral recombination is thought to play an important role in the generation of immune escape and multiple drug resistance by shuffling pre-existing mutations in the viral population. Current estimates of HIV-1 recombination rates are derived from measurements within reporter gene sequences or genetically divergent HIV sequences. These measurements do not mimic the recombination occurring in vivo, between closely related genomes. Additionally, the methods used to measure recombination make a variety of assumptions about the underlying process, and often fail to account adequately for issues such as co-infection of cells or the possibility of multiple template switches between recombination sites. We have developed a HIV-1 marker system by making a small number of codon modifications in gag which allow recombination to be measured over various lengths between closely related viral genomes. We have developed statistical tools to measure recombination rates that can compensate for the possibility of multiple template switches. Our results show that when multiple template switches are ignored the error is substantial, particularly when recombination rates are high, or the genomic distance is large. We demonstrate that this system is applicable to other studies to accurately measure the recombination rate and show that recombination does not occur randomly within the HIV genome