Decadal Evolution of Ocean Thermal Anomalies in the North Atlantic: The Effects of Ekman, Overturning, and Horizontal Transport

Basin-scale thermal anomalies in the North Atlantic, extending to depths of 1–2 km, are more pronounced than the background warming over the last 60 years. A dynamical analysis based on reanalyses of historical data from 1965 to 2000 suggests that these thermal anomalies are formed by ocean heat convergences, augmented by the poorly known air–sea fluxes. The heat convergence is separated into contributions from the horizontal circulation and the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), the latter further separated into Ekman and MOC transport minus Ekman transport (MOC-Ekman) cells. The subtropical thermal anomalies are mainly controlled by wind-induced changes in the Ekman heat convergence, while the subpolar thermal anomalies are controlled by the MOC-Ekman heat convergence; the horizontal heat convergence is generally weaker, only becoming significant within the subpolar gyre. These thermal anomalies often have an opposing sign between the subtropical and subpolar gyres, associated with opposing changes in the meridional volume transport driving the Ekman and MOC-Ekman heat convergences. These changes in gyre-scale convergences in heat transport are probably induced by the winds, as they correlate with the zonal wind stress at gyre boundaries

Interior pathways of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

To understand how our global climate will change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcing, it is essential to determine how quickly and by what pathways climate change signals are transported throughout the global ocean, a vast reservoir for heat and carbon dioxide. Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by open ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, is a particularly sensitive indicator of climate change on interannual to decadal timescales. Hydrographic observations made anywhere along the western boundary of the North Atlantic reveal a core of LSW at intermediate depths advected southward within the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). These observations have led to the widely held view that the DWBC is the dominant pathway for the export of LSW from its formation site in the northern North Atlantic towards the Equator. Here we show that most of the recently ventilated LSW entering the subtropics follows interior, not DWBC, pathways. The interior pathways are revealed by trajectories of subsurface RAFOS floats released during the period 2003-2005 that recorded once-daily temperature, pressure and acoustically determined position for two years, and by model-simulated 'e-floats' released in the subpolar DWBC. The evidence points to a few specific locations around the Grand Banks where LSW is most often injected into the interior. These results have implications for deep ocean ventilation and suggest that the interior subtropical gyre should not be ignored when considering the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.Dissertatio

Atlantic overturning in decline?

Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or 1.5x10^22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures

Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation

Possible changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) provide a key source of uncertainty regarding future climate change. Maps of temperature trends over the twentieth century show a conspicuous region of cooling in the northern Atlantic. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that this cooling may be due to a reduction in the AMOC over the twentieth century and particularly after 1970. Since 1990 the AMOC seems to have partly recovered. This time evolution is consistently suggested by an AMOC index based on sea surface temperatures, by the hemispheric temperature difference, by coral-based proxies and by oceanic measurements. We discuss a possible contribution of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the slowdown. Using a multi-proxy temperature reconstruction for the AMOC index suggests that the AMOC weakness after 1975 is an unprecedented event in the past millennium (p > 0.99). Further melting of Greenland in the coming decades could contribute to further weakening of the AMOC

Advances in reconstructing the AMOC using sea surface observations of salinity

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is one of the main drivers of climate variability at decadal and longer time scales. As there are no direct multi-decadal observations of this key circulation, the reconstruction of past AMOC variations is essential. This work presents a step forward in reconstructing the AMOC using climate models and time-varying surface nudging of salinity and temperature data, for which independent multi-decadal observed series are available. A number of nudging protocols are explored in a perfect model framework to best reproduce the AMOC variability accommodating to the characteristics of SST and SSS available products. As reference SST products with sufficient space and time coverage are available, we here choose to focus on the limitations associated to SSS products with the goal of providing protocols using independent salinity products. We consider a global gridded dataset and, additionally, a coarser SSS dataset restricted to the Atlantic and with a quite low spatial resolution (order of 10 degrees vs. 2 for the model grid). We show how, using the latter, we can improve the efficiency of the nudging on the AMOC reconstruction by adding a high-resolution annual cycle to the coarse resolution SSS product as well as a spatial downscaling to account for SSS gradient. The final protocol retained for the coarse SSS data is able to reconstruct a 100-year long AMOC period (average of 10.18 Sv and a standard deviation of 1.39 Sv), with a correlation of 0.76 to the target and a RMSE of 0.99 Sv. These values can be respectively compared to 0.85 and 0.75 Sv when using the global salinity surface observations. This work provides a first step towards understanding the limitations and prospects of historical AMOC reconstructions using different sea surface salinity datasets for the surface nudging

Variations in the Difference between Mean Sea Level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and Their Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60–120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or ‘geophysical fingerprints’. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium. Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf

Invasion Genetics of the Western Flower Thrips in China: Evidence for Genetic Bottleneck, Hybridization and Bridgehead Effect

The western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), is an invasive species and the most economically important pest within the insect order Thysanoptera. F. occidentalis, which is endemic to North America, was initially detected in Kunming in southwestern China in 2000 and since then it has rapidly invaded several other localities in China where it has greatly damaged greenhouse vegetables and ornamental crops. Controlling this invasive pest in China requires an understanding of its genetic makeup and migration patterns. Using the mitochondrial COI gene and 10 microsatellites, eight of which were newly isolated and are highly polymorphic, we investigated the genetic structure and the routes of range expansion of 14 F. occidentalis populations in China. Both the mitochondrial and microsatellite data revealed that the genetic diversity of F. occidentalis of the Chinese populations is lower than that in its native range. Two previously reported cryptic species (or ecotypes) were found in the study. The divergence in the mitochondrial COI of two Chinese cryptic species (or ecotypes) was about 3.3% but they cannot be distinguished by nuclear markers. Hybridization might produce such substantial mitochondrial-nuclear discordance. Furthermore, we found low genetic differentiation (global FST = 0.043, P<0.001) among all the populations and strong evidence for gene flow, especially from the three southwestern populations (Baoshan, Dali and Kunming) to the other Chinese populations. The directional gene flow was further supported by the higher genetic diversity of these three southwestern populations. Thus, quarantine and management of F. occidentalis should focus on preventing it from spreading from the putative source populations to other parts of China

Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1,2,3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010–2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, ~40% of the surface freshwater was retained